{"id":1092,"date":"2023-07-03T01:24:47","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1092"},"modified":"2023-07-03T01:24:47","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:24:47","slug":"abstract191","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 191"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 191<\/p>\n

The Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO predictability: perfect-model ensemble forecasts with the CESM2 aqua-planet<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Hyemi Kim
\nStony Brook University, United States of America
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> MJO predictability, Maritime Continent barrier effect, Idealized aqua-planet experiment, Ensemble forecast experiment<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Studies have indicated exaggerated Maritime Continent (MC) barrier effect in simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a dominant source of subseasonal predictability in the tropics. This issue has plagued the modeling and operational forecasting communities for decades, while the sensitivity of MC barrier on MJO predictability has not been addressed quantitatively. In this study, perfect-model ensemble forecasts are conducted with an aqua-planet configuration of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) in which both basic state and tropical modes of variability are reasonably simulated with a Warm Pool-like SST distribution. When water-covered terrain mimicking MC land masses (MC barrier) is added to the Warm Pool-like SST framework, the eastward propagation of the MJO is disturbed by the prescribed MC aqua-mountain. We will show the predictability change by the MC barrier effect in the idealized model experiment.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>James J. Benedict (Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 191 The Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO predictability: perfect-model ensemble forecasts with the CESM2 aqua-planet Lead Author: Hyemi Kim Stony Brook University, United States of America Keywords:…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1092","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 191 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 191 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 191 The Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO predictability: perfect-model ensemble forecasts with the CESM2 aqua-planet Lead Author: Hyemi Kim Stony Brook University, United States of America Keywords:...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 191 - 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WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 191 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 191 The Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO predictability: perfect-model ensemble forecasts with the CESM2 aqua-planet Lead Author: Hyemi Kim Stony Brook University, United States of America Keywords:...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"1 minute","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract191\/","name":"Abstract 191 - 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