{"id":1097,"date":"2023-07-03T01:32:30","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:32:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1097"},"modified":"2023-07-03T01:32:30","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:32:30","slug":"abstract197","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract197\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 197"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 197<\/p>\n

Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF Model<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Masuo Nakano
\nJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> tropical cyclone, BSISO<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) strongly influences tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. However, little is known concerning its impact on TC tracks. Here, we examine how TC tracks in the western North Pacific are modulated by the boreal summer ISO (BSISO) during each month of the TC season (June\u2013October) using the best track data and how well the modulation are reproduced in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model forecasts. The results reveal that the impact of the BSISO on the typhoon tracks varies month to month. The ECMWF model successfully reproduces this impact up to a month in advance. A simple advection model shows that the reproduction of the modulations in the TC genesis location leads to accurate TC track forecasts. These results suggest that the BSISO is one of the major sources of TC track predictability at the subseasonal time scale (2 weeks to 2 months).<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
\nKazuyoshi Kikuchi (IPRC\/U Hawaii; current affiliation: ERT, Inc.)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 197 Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF Model Lead Author: Masuo Nakano…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1097","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 197 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract197\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 197 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 197 Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF Model Lead Author: Masuo Nakano...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract197\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract197\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract197\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 197 - 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