{"id":1116,"date":"2023-07-03T01:39:55","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:39:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1116"},"modified":"2023-07-03T01:39:55","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:39:55","slug":"abstract202","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract202\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 202"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 202<\/p>\n

Prediction skill of the eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation and associated dynamics in NASA\u2019s GEOS-S2S forecast system<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Young-Kwon Lim
\nUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore County, and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, United States of America
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> MJO, Subseasonal prediction, GEOS model, Moistening, Moist static energy<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The prediction skill of the eastward propagating MJO in the current operational version of NASA\u2019s Global Earth Observing System Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system is investigated for winter and summer focusing on moistening-related processes crucial for MJO activity. It is found that the annual bivariate correlation of the Real-time Multi-variate MJO time series between prediction and observation is ~0.70, ~0.57, and ~0.50 at 20-, 25-, and 30-day forecast leads. Correlation at long-leads (>30 days) is noticeably higher for boreal summer initial conditions (June-September (JJAS)), with correlations remaining above 0.5 at 35 day leads. Correlations are lower for boreal winter initial conditions from January through March (JFM), dropping to ~0.5 at 25-day lead, still comparable to the skills in the other reliable S2S forecast systems.
\nThe predicted MJO propagation across the Indo-western Pacific sector is well captured in JJAS, but is a little slower and weaker than observed in JFM. Investigations of the key factors, including mean state sea surface temperature and moisture, moisture advection and moisture sink, Moist Static Energy (MSE) growth, and tropical circulation\/pressure responses to the MJO convective heating reveal that, in boreal winter, those responses and moistening processes are underestimated over and to the east of the Maritime Continent (MC) when the MJO anomaly approaches from the west. However, those key factors captured by GEOS-S2S are comparable to or stronger than observed in boreal summer, although moistening is overestimated due to large surface evaporation.
\nFrom the moisture mode perspective, this study offers evidence that a dry bias and an underestimated MSE tendency around the MC and western Pacific are responsible for weaker eastward MJO propagation than observed and lowering the model\u2019s prediction skill. Specifically, the underestimated MSE tendency is found to be due to weaker than observed vertical MSE advection and surface latent heat flux. In summer MJO cases, the model predicts greater moisture anomaly and MSE growth over the MC and western Pacific, than in winter MJO cases. This study suggests that improvement of the premoistening tendency to the east of MJO convection in the boreal winter could contribute to further increases in MJO prediction skill of the GEOS-S2S system.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Nathan Arnold, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, USA
\nAndrea Molod, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, USA
\nSteven Pawson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, USA[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 202 Prediction skill of the eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation and associated dynamics in NASA\u2019s GEOS-S2S forecast system Lead Author: Young-Kwon Lim University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and NASA…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1116","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 202 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract202\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 202 - 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