{"id":1151,"date":"2023-07-03T02:07:16","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1151"},"modified":"2023-07-03T02:07:16","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:07:16","slug":"abstract219","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 219"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 219<\/p>\n

Predictability of Sub-seasonal Rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Luong Thang
\nKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Arabian Peninsula, Convection-permitting model, Precipitation<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Despite being one of the driest places in the world, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) occasionally experiences extreme precipitation events associated with organized convections that might lead to flooding. Rainfall forecasts at lead times on the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale can potentially assist disaster risk mitigation, and water resource management. Here, model skills of predicting precipitation at sub-seasonal scale (from 2 to 4 weeks ahead) are benchmarked over the Arabian Peninsula (AP). We utilized the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolution (4 km) to dynamically downscale ensemble of 11 members of the European Centre of Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) S2S reforecast product over a 20-year period (1998-2018). Representation of precipitation is assessed with a regional reanalysis over the AP and in-situ rain gauge measurements.
\nPrecipitation mostly occurs over the AP during cooler months (November to April). Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important factors in producing rainfall over the region during this period when extratropical systems are dominant. The majority of rainfall events in November to February are associated with extratropical forcing, while March and April rainfalls are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions.
\nOur results indicate that the WRF convection-permitting model adequately describes the precipitation patterns over the AP up to 4-week forecast-range and statistically improves the forecast skill with regard to its driving ECMWF fields over the studied 20-year period. WRF reduces the dry bias by 30-40% and overall improve the rainfall forecast skill by 34% on average. Large-scale circulation signatures are reproduced better in the spring wide-spread rainfall events for both WRF and ECMWF. The regional model (WRF) adds more values in simulating winter mesoscale convective systems improving rainfall forecast skill 46% on average.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Hsin-I Chang (University of Arizona)
\nHari P. Dasari (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)
\nC. Bayu Risanto (University of Arizona)
\nMatteo Zampieri (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)
\nChristopher L. Castro (University of Arizona)
\nIbrahim Hoteit (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 219 Predictability of Sub-seasonal Rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula Lead Author: Luong Thang King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia Keywords: Arabian Peninsula, Convection-permitting model, Precipitation…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1151","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 219 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 219 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 219 Predictability of Sub-seasonal Rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula Lead Author: Luong Thang King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia Keywords: Arabian Peninsula, Convection-permitting model, Precipitation...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 219 - 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WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 219 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 219 Predictability of Sub-seasonal Rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula Lead Author: Luong Thang King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia Keywords: Arabian Peninsula, Convection-permitting model, Precipitation...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"2 minutes","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract219\/","name":"Abstract 219 - 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