{"id":1155,"date":"2023-07-03T02:18:17","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:18:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1155"},"modified":"2023-07-03T02:18:17","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:18:17","slug":"abstract225","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract225\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 225"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 225<\/p>\n

The potential for using weather patterns to advance sub-seasonal forecasting in Southeast Asia<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Steven Woolnough
\nNational Centre for Atmopsheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Weather Patterns, Southeast Asia, Precipitation, Subseasonal Forecasting<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Early warning of high of impact weather (HIW) events can enable agencies and individuals to take action to mitigate the impact of those events. However high impact weather events, particularly those associated with precipitation can be difficult to predict at long lead times due to their dependence on convective scale processes. However, the large-scale circulation in which those weather events are embedded should be more predictable at longer timescales, and with knowledge about how the likelihood of HIW depends on the large-scale circulation prediction of the large-scale can be used to provide information about the likelihood of HIW.
\nWe derive and compare two sets of weather patterns for Southeast Asia based on the 850hPa wind field with and without imposing a separation between the planetary-scale and regional-scale circulation. We show the relationship between these weather patterns and the seasonal cycle and known modes of tropical circulation variability on the planetary scale, such as ENSO and the MJO, synoptic scale features such as cold surges and tropical cyclones. We further explore the potential to use these weather patterns to describe variations in the mean precipitation and the likelihood of heavy precipitation. Observed relationships between the weather patterns and HIW are used to develop a hybrid dynamical-statistical forecast for HIW in Southeast Asia and the skill of these forecasts is assessed and compared to direct forecasts of HIW from the Met Office GloSEA5 sub-seasonal hindcasts. This comparison reveals a small, but significant, gain in forecast skill when using the pattern-conditioned forecasts.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Emma Howard (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)
\nPaula Gonzalez (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)
\nSimon Thomas (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)
\nGabriel Wolf (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
\nOscar Mart\u00ednez-Alvarado (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)
\nJohn Methven (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
\nTom Frame (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
\nChris Holloway (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 225 The potential for using weather patterns to advance sub-seasonal forecasting in Southeast Asia Lead Author: Steven Woolnough National Centre for Atmopsheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1155","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 225 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract225\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 225 - 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