{"id":1181,"date":"2023-07-03T02:26:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:26:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1181"},"modified":"2023-07-03T02:26:07","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:26:07","slug":"abstract236","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract236\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 236"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 236<\/p>\n

A multimodel real-time system for global probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Andrew W. Robertson
\nIRI, Columbia University, United States of America
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> subseasonal prediction, SubX, multimodel forecasts, calibration<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> A global multimodel probabilistic subseasonal forecast system for precipitation and near-surface temperature is developed based on three NOAA ensemble prediction systems that make their forecasts available publicly in real time as part of the Subseasonal eXperiment (SubX). The weekly and biweekly ensemble means of precipitation and temperature of each model are individually calibrated at each gridpoint using extended logistic regression, prior to forming an equal-weighted multimodel ensemble (MME) probabilistic forecasts. Reforecast skill of weeks 3–4 precipitation and temperature is assessed in terms of the cross-validated ranked probability skill score (RPSS) and reliability diagram. The multimodel reforecasts are shown to be well-calibrated for both variables. Precipitation is moderately skillful over many tropical land regions, including Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa and SE Asia, and over subtropical South America, Africa, and Australia. Near surface temperature skill is considerably higher than for precipitation and extends into the extratropics as well. The multimodel RPSS skill of both precipitation and temperature is shown to exceed that of any of the constituent models over Indonesia, South Asia, South America and East Africa, in all seasons. An example real-time weeks 3–4 global forecast is illustrated and shown to bear the hallmarks of the combined influences of a moderate Madden-Julian Oscillation event as well as weak-moderate ongoing La Ni\u00f1a event.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>JingYuan (IRI)
\nMichael K. Tippett (IRI)
\nRemi Cousin (IRI)
\nNachiketa Acharya (NOAA)
\nBohar Singh (IRI)
\n\u00c1ngel G. Mu\u00f1oz (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre)
\nDan Collins (NOAA)
\nEmerson LaJoie (NOAA)
\nJohnna Infanti (NOAA)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 236 A multimodel real-time system for global probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature Lead Author: Andrew W. Robertson IRI, Columbia University, United States of America Keywords: subseasonal…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1181","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 236 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract236\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 236 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 236 A multimodel real-time system for global probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature Lead Author: Andrew W. 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