{"id":1187,"date":"2023-07-03T02:36:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:36:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1187"},"modified":"2023-07-03T02:36:08","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:36:08","slug":"abstract245","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 245"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 245<\/p>\n

State-dependent Forecast Skill in S2S Forecasts<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Abigail Jaye
\nNCAR, United States of America
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> State-dependence, Forecast Skill, Model evaluation<\/p>\n

Abstract: <\/strong>Recently, there has been much interest in forecasts on the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale. Their skill is generally very small except during selected “”windows of opportunity”” during which they are skillful. These windows of opportunity are typically associated with large-scale modes of variability such as the Pacific North American pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation or forcing from the tropics such as those associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or the Madden-Julian Oscillation.<\/p>\n

Here, we will investigate the state-dependent forecast skill across different S2S models including ECMWF, CESM2 and NCEP. We will report on various probabilistic and deterministic skill measures for 2m-temperature and geopotential height in 500hPa and for different geographical regions.<\/p>\n

We will use the perfect model framework to point to differences in the potential predictability in different S2S models and link those to differences in the teleconnections patterns and ensemble spread.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Judith Berner (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 245 State-dependent Forecast Skill in S2S Forecasts Lead Author: Abigail Jaye NCAR, United States of America Keywords: State-dependence, Forecast Skill, Model evaluation Abstract: Recently, there has been much…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1187","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 245 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 245 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 245 State-dependent Forecast Skill in S2S Forecasts Lead Author: Abigail Jaye NCAR, United States of America Keywords: State-dependence, Forecast Skill, Model evaluation Abstract: Recently, there has been much...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 245 - 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WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 245 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 245 State-dependent Forecast Skill in S2S Forecasts Lead Author: Abigail Jaye NCAR, United States of America Keywords: State-dependence, Forecast Skill, Model evaluation Abstract: Recently, there has been much...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"1 minute","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract245\/","name":"Abstract 245 - 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