{"id":1217,"date":"2023-07-03T02:49:29","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:49:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1217"},"modified":"2023-07-03T02:49:29","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T01:49:29","slug":"abstract257","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract257\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 257"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 257<\/p>\n

The transition from California\u2019s extreme drought to major flooding: Evaluating CW3E\u2019s S2S forecasts of the onslaught of landfalling atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in December 2022 – January 2023<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Mike DeFlorio
\nCenter for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, United States of America
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Atmospheric rivers, S2S, Extreme precipitation, Predictability, Forecast synthesis products<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The western United States, and in particular California, experienced a historic run of nine consecutive ARs in three weeks\u2019 time during the December 2022 – January 2023 period. Following three years of extreme and exceptional drought across the region from 2020-2022, intense ARs that made landfall across California in late December 2022 and early January 2023 were responsible for bringing reservoirs back to historical averages, as well as producing damaging floods and debris flows. Throughout this period, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) and collaborating institutions developed an expansive suite of peer-reviewed experimental subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction tools for ARs, circulation regimes, and precipitation anomalies across the western U.S. region. In this study, we examine experimental seasonal forecasts of precipitation over the western U.S. issued by various institutions and agencies at the beginning of Water Year 2022-2023, and discuss potential sources of error and uncertainty in their underlying prediction systems. We then examine the remarkable shift during the December 2022 \u2013 January 2023 period from widespread ridging\/dry conditions across the North Pacific and western U.S. to persistent troughing and record wetness dominated by the presence of ARs. For both the experimental subseasonal and seasonal forecasts, we introduce new forecast synthesis products developed at CW3E to aid in the interpretation of S2S forecast information across different methods, predictands, and lead times. These S2S forecast synthesis products are included regularly in CW3E S2S outlooks and can provide situational awareness guidance to western U.S. water managers and other applied end users across the region.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Agniv Sengupta (CW3E)
\nChristopher M. Castellano (CW3E)
\nJiabao Wang (CW3E)
\nZhenhai Zhang (CW3E)
\nAlexander Gershunov (CW3E)
\nKristen Guirguis (CW3E)
\nRosa Luna Nino (CW3E)
\nRachel Clemesha (CW3E)
\nMing Pan (CW3E)
\nMu Xiao (CW3E)
\nBrian Kawzenuk (CW3E)
\nPeter B. Gibson (NIWA)
\nWilliam Scheftic (U. Arizona)
\nPatrick D. Broxton (U. Arizona)
\nJulie Kalansky (CW3E)
\nF. Martin Ralph (CW3E)
\nLuca Delle Monache (CW3E)
\nDuane E. Waliser (NASA JPL\/CalTech)
\nAndrew W. Robertson (IRI)
\nXubin Zeng (U. Arizona)
\nJeanine Jones (DWR)
\nMichael L. Anderson (DWR)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 257 The transition from California\u2019s extreme drought to major flooding: Evaluating CW3E\u2019s S2S forecasts of the onslaught of landfalling atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in December 2022…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1217","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 257 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract257\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 257 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 257 The transition from California\u2019s extreme drought to major flooding: Evaluating CW3E\u2019s S2S forecasts of the onslaught of landfalling atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in December 2022...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract257\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract257\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract257\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 257 - 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