{"id":730,"date":"2023-07-02T18:14:53","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T17:14:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=730"},"modified":"2023-07-02T18:14:53","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T17:14:53","slug":"abstract025","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract025\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 025"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 025<\/p>\n

Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Dvir Chwat
\nFredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> sudden stratospheric warmings, northern annular mode<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The predictability of Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 16 major SSWs that have occurred since 1998, a larger sample size than has been considered by previous works. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish those SSWs with above average predictability are a preconditioned vortex prior to the SSW, an active Madden-Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, and the vortex morphology (displacement more predictable). Two of these factors appear to not have been considered in previous works focusing on a large sample of events. Most of these effects are not statistically significant at the 95% level due to the still relatively small sample size, though all would exceed a 90% criteria at least marginally. Combined, however, they account for 40% of the inter-event spread in SSW predictability, thus indicating that SSWs with favorable precursors are significantly more predictable.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong> Chaim I. Garfinkel , Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
\nWen Chen, College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
\nJian Rao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 025 Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable? Lead Author: Dvir Chwat Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Keywords: sudden stratospheric…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-730","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 025 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 025 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 025 Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable? 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