{"id":766,"date":"2023-07-02T18:55:31","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T17:55:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=766"},"modified":"2023-07-02T18:55:31","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T17:55:31","slug":"abstract047","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract047\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 047"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 047<\/p>\n

Euro-Atlantic weather regimes and their modulation by tropospheric and stratospheric teleconnection pathways in ECMWF reforecasts<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Christopher David Roberts
\nEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> ECMWF reforecasts, MJO, Weather regimes, Teleconnections<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> This study combines operational reforecasts (2001-2021) with results from a lower-resolution 41-year reforecast (1980-2020) to provide a robust assessment of wintertime Euro-Atlantic regimes and their modulation by tropospheric and stratospheric teleconnection pathways in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system. In both operational and lower-resolution reforecasts, the climatological properties of wintertime Euro-Atlantic regimes, including regime structures, frequencies, and transition probabilities, are accurately simulated at S2S lead times. However, the 41-year reforecasts allow us to diagnose substantial errors in regime statistics when conditioned on modes of intraseasonal-to-interannual variability. In particular, ECMWF reforecasts underestimate the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and fail to reproduce the modulation of MJO-NAO teleconnections by the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Teleconnection and atmospheric wave diagnostics highlight two specific issues that are likely to contribute to these conditional errors in ECMWF reforecasts: (i) insufficient propagation of Rossby wave activity from the Pacific to the Atlantic following MJO phase 3 during El Ni\u00f1o conditions, when the direct tropospheric teleconnection pathway is most active, and (ii) an underestimated response of the stratospheric polar vortex following MJO phase 8 during La Ni\u00f1a conditions, when the indirect stratospheric teleconnection pathway is most active. Improving the representation of tropospheric and stratospheric teleconnection pathways is thus a priority for improving ECMWF forecasts of extratropical weather regimes and their associated surface impacts.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Magdalena A. Balmaseda (ECWMF)
\nLaura Ferranti (ECMWF)
\nFrederic Vitart (ECMWF)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 047 Euro-Atlantic weather regimes and their modulation by tropospheric and stratospheric teleconnection pathways in ECMWF reforecasts Lead Author: Christopher David Roberts European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-766","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 047 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract047\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 047 - 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