{"id":792,"date":"2023-07-02T19:15:57","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T18:15:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=792"},"modified":"2023-07-02T19:15:57","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T18:15:57","slug":"abstract062","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract062\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 062"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 062<\/p>\n

Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Arun Kumar
\nClimate Prediction Center, NOAA, United States of America
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Precipitation prediction, Predictability limit, Sub-seasonal prediction<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The skill of NOAA\u2019s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern U.S. but little or no skill over large portions of the central U.S. The goal of this study is to explain the seasonal and regional variations of the North American subseasonal (weeks 3-6) precipitation skill, specifically the reasons for its successes and its limitations. The performances of multiple recent-generation model reforecasts over 1999-2015 in predicting precipitation are compared to uninitialized simulation skill using the atmospheric component of the forecast systems. This parallel analysis permits attribution of precipitation skill to two distinct sources: one due to slowly evolving ocean surface boundary states and the other to faster time-scale initial atmospheric weather states. A strong regionality and seasonality in precipitation forecast performance is shown to be analogous to skill patterns dictated by boundary forcing constraints alone. The correspondence is found to be especially high for the North American pattern of the maximum monthly skill that is achieved in the reforecast. The boundary forcing of most importance originates from tropical Pacific SST influence specially those related to the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation. We discuss physical constraints that may limit monthly precipitation skill and interpret the performance of existing models in the context of plausible upper limits.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Lantao Sun (Colorado State University)
\nMartin Hoerling (Physical Science Laboratory, NOAA)
\nJadwiga Ritcher (NCAR)
\nAndrew Hoell (Physical Science Laboratory, NOAA)
\nJames Hurrell (Colorado State University)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 062 Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill Lead Author: Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, United States of America Keywords: Precipitation prediction, Predictability limit, Sub-seasonal prediction…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-792","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 062 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract062\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 062 - 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WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract062\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 062 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 062 Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill Lead Author: Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, United States of America Keywords: Precipitation prediction, Predictability limit, Sub-seasonal prediction...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract062\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"2 minutes","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract062\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract062\/","name":"Abstract 062 - 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