{"id":840,"date":"2023-07-02T19:50:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T18:50:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=840"},"modified":"2023-07-02T19:50:08","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T18:50:08","slug":"abstract085","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract085\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 085"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 085<\/p>\n

Prediction and Predictability Studies with NASA’s GEOS-S2S Modeling and Assimilation System<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Andrea Molod
\nNASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, United States of America
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Predictability<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong><\/p>\n

NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has recently begun conducting a new series of
\npredictability studies using the suite of retrospective forecasts with the GEOS-S2S Version 2
\nand Version 3 modeling and assimilation systems.<\/p>\n

One area of focus is the predictability gained from strong land-atmosphere coupling. Metrics for
\nthe strength of land-atmosphere coupling are being computed, and the conditional forecast skill
\nunder conditions of strong coupling is being evaluated. These conditions under which the land-atmosphere
\ncoupling results in increased skill will eventually be used to derive forecast perturbation states designed
\nto take advantage of the increased predictability. Preliminary results of the skill gained during forecasts
\nof opportunity related to land-atmosphere coupling strength will be presented.<\/p>\n

Another area of focus is the investigation of determining a smooth transition of predictability from weather
\nto subseasonal lead times and that from subseasonal to seasonal lead times. At present, the predictability is
\nassumed to abruptly transition between one lead and another, in an ad hoc manner. The large suite of
\nretrospective forecasts is being used to study the transitions and determine, with appropriate metrics,
\nhow the predictability may vary with state or regime. Preliminary results from the transition between
\nweather and subseasonal time scales will be presented.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:<\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 085 Prediction and Predictability Studies with NASA’s GEOS-S2S Modeling and Assimilation System Lead Author: Andrea Molod NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, United States of America Keywords: Predictability…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-840","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 085 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract085\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 085 - 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