{"id":844,"date":"2023-07-02T19:54:55","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T18:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=844"},"modified":"2023-07-02T19:54:55","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T18:54:55","slug":"abstract087","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 087"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 087<\/p>\n

Initial Conditions for Stratospheric Error Growth<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Robert W. Lee
\nUniversity of Reading, United Kingdom
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Stratosphere-troposphere coupling, Bayesian, Minimal model, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, S2S<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The stratosphere has been shown to be a significant source of sub-seasonal tropospheric predictability for some winters, however it is not yet well understood what mechanisms define when this will come into play. We investigate the predictability associated with stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the sub-seasonal and seasonal hindcast datasets by fitting a simple, minimal model. We diagnose the contribution of the stratosphere to tropospheric forecast skill by using Bayesian methods to fit the minimal model to hindcasts in the S2S database in order to compare and contrast different prediction systems and also compare them with synthetic forecast datasets. We also contrast correlation skill in sub-sets of forecasts with weak, neutral and strong lower stratospheric polar vortex states. We also utilise windows-of-opportunity and compare with a broader range of skill metrics to test their performance in detecting model skill derived from stratosphere-troposphere coupling and the different impression they impart. Finally, we apply the minimal model to the SSW case study events of boreal winters 2018 versus 2019 to investigate further the contrasting tropospheric responses.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Andrew J. Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 087 Initial Conditions for Stratospheric Error Growth Lead Author: Robert W. Lee University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: Stratosphere-troposphere coupling, Bayesian, Minimal model, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, S2S Abstract:…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-844","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 087 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 087 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 087 Initial Conditions for Stratospheric Error Growth Lead Author: Robert W. Lee University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: Stratosphere-troposphere coupling, Bayesian, Minimal model, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, S2S Abstract:...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 087 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-02T18:54:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-02T18:54:55+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Programme\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Abstract 087\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\",\"name\":\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"description\":\"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Abstract 087 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 087 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 087 Initial Conditions for Stratospheric Error Growth Lead Author: Robert W. Lee University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: Stratosphere-troposphere coupling, Bayesian, Minimal model, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, S2S Abstract:...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"2 minutes","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/","name":"Abstract 087 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-07-02T18:54:55+00:00","dateModified":"2023-07-02T18:54:55+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract087\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Programme","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Abstract 087"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/","name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","description":"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/145"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=844"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/844\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":850,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/844\/revisions\/850"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}