{"id":868,"date":"2023-07-02T20:52:40","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T19:52:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=868"},"modified":"2023-07-02T20:52:40","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T19:52:40","slug":"abstract096","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 096"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 096<\/p>\n

The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on MJO Prediction in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> S. Abhik
\nSchool of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Australia, Australia
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Maritime Continent, Madden\u2013Julian oscillation, S2S Forecast verification\/skill, Tropical subseasonal variability, Atmosphere\u2013ocean interaction<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is influenced by the barrier effect across the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent (MC) islands: MJO convection weakens or sometimes completely dissipates upon encountering the archipelago. This MC barrier effect is generally overestimated in most of the current general circulation models. Here, we examine the impact of the MC barrier effect on the MJO prediction during the austral summer season using retrospective forecasts from 13 subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction systems. The overall MJO prediction skill for December-March start dates of all S2S models is evaluated and the top prediction systems are identified based on bivariate correlation, root-mean-square-error (RMSE), and real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase error. This skill assessment is extended to the prediction of blocked and continuously propagating MJO events over the MC islands. Consistent with our earlier study, the prediction skill of the continuously propagating MJOs is significantly higher than the blocked MJOs in the S2S models. The higher prediction skill for the continuous MJO events is mostly insensitive to the higher initial RMM amplitude of the continuous MJO events. Rather, the greater prediction skill is shown to be related to the more persistent behavior of the continuously propagating MJOs to the eastern flank of the MC islands. Our forecast skill assessment suggests that the lifetime of the predicted MJOs initialized over the Indian Ocean is similar to the MJOs initialized over the western Pacific. The forecast skill difference between blocked and continuous MJO events is also evaluated in a multi-model ensemble by utilizing all the ensemble members of the \u2018top models\u2019. The \u2018top model\u2019 forecasts reasonably capture the observed enhanced subsidence over the colder sea-surface temperature in the central Pacific that is associated with the blocked MJO events. The role of a large-scale environment in governing the MJO propagation across the MC islands is discussed, and the shortcomings of S2S forecast systems are qualitatively identified.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Chidong Zhang (NOAA\/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington)
\nHarry H. Hendon (School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Australia)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 096 The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on MJO Prediction in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models Lead Author: S. Abhik School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Australia, Australia…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-868","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 096 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 096 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 096 The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on MJO Prediction in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models Lead Author: S. Abhik School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Australia, Australia...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 096 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-02T19:52:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-02T19:52:40+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Programme\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Abstract 096\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\",\"name\":\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"description\":\"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Abstract 096 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract096\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 096 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 096 The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on MJO Prediction in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models Lead Author: S. 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