{"id":893,"date":"2023-07-02T21:10:50","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T20:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=893"},"modified":"2023-07-02T21:10:50","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T20:10:50","slug":"abstract107","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 107"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 107<\/p>\n

Predicting the leaf area index in a dynamical S2S forecast system<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Constantin Ardilouze
\nCNRM, Universit\u00e9 de Toulouse, M\u00e9t\u00e9o France, CNRS, France
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Interactive vegetation, LA, ESM, predictability<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Processes governing land-atmosphere interactions have a flawed representation in dynamical subseasonal and seasonal forecast systems. In particular, the evolution of vegetation is generally prescribed, following an annual climatology for example. However, vegetation is a key player in the climate mean state and interannual variability, due to the impact on the surface water and energy budgets through the soil evaporation, the canopy transpiration and albedo. Furthermore, the time scale of the evolution of vegetation is slower than atmospheric processes, which could be an asset for atmospheric predictability because of the persistence of anomalous leaf area index initial states.
\nWhile recent efforts on land sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability have mostly focused on soil moisture and its initialization, the impact of a better representation of the vegetation evolution on S2S forecast skill is yet to be explored.
\nIn the framework of the European project H2020-CONFESS, we evaluate an ESM-based dynamical subseasonal-to-seasonal reforecast run with an interactive vegetation scheme.
\nWe primarily focus on the extent to which the leaf area index (LAI) is predictable against a reference observational dataset, delivered during the CONFESS project. To our knowledge, inline predictions of LAI anomalies at the global scale have never been explored, and may provide avenues for innovative climate services such as crop management, or the anticipation of wildfire risk.
\nThe potential of LAI as a source of atmospheric S2S predictability is also discussed by comparing the skill of screen-level temperature reforecasts run with or without the interactive vegetation scheme.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Dayon, G. (CNRM)
\nBatt\u00e9, L. (CNRM)
\nDecharme, B. (CNRM)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 107 Predicting the leaf area index in a dynamical S2S forecast system Lead Author: Constantin Ardilouze CNRM, Universit\u00e9 de Toulouse, M\u00e9t\u00e9o France, CNRS, France Keywords: Interactive vegetation, LA,…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-893","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 107 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 107 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 107 Predicting the leaf area index in a dynamical S2S forecast system Lead Author: Constantin Ardilouze CNRM, Universit\u00e9 de Toulouse, M\u00e9t\u00e9o France, CNRS, France Keywords: Interactive vegetation, LA,...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 107 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-02T20:10:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-02T20:10:50+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Programme\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Abstract 107\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\",\"name\":\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"description\":\"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Abstract 107 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 107 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 107 Predicting the leaf area index in a dynamical S2S forecast system Lead Author: Constantin Ardilouze CNRM, Universit\u00e9 de Toulouse, M\u00e9t\u00e9o France, CNRS, France Keywords: Interactive vegetation, LA,...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"2 minutes","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/","name":"Abstract 107 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-07-02T20:10:50+00:00","dateModified":"2023-07-02T20:10:50+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract107\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Programme","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Abstract 107"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/","name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","description":"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/145"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=893"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/893\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":902,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/893\/revisions\/902"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}