{"id":949,"date":"2023-07-02T23:28:46","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T22:28:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=949"},"modified":"2023-07-02T23:28:46","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T22:28:46","slug":"abstract128","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 128"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 128<\/p>\n

Evaluating the representation of South America precipitation variability patterns
\nin sub-seasonal predictions of S2S project models<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Felipe M. de Andrade
\nNational Institute for Space Research, Brazil
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Sub-seasonal precipitation, Prediction quality, Potential predictability, Predictability sources, South America<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Anticipated sub-seasonal precipitation predictions (expected conditions for next 4 weeks) are important for activity planning in various application sectors, such as water management, agriculture, and energy production. South American sub-seasonal precipitation is strongly influenced by key modes of variability, with well-defined spatial patterns, representing the main sources of predictability in this time scale. Therefore, it is important to investigate how well sub-seasonal prediction models represent these precipitation patterns to have an assessment of their reproducibility and to better understand the mechanisms behind the actual prediction quality. To achieve this goal, Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is used to identify these spatial patterns, together with the corresponding principal component time series, in observations and a selection of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project models, including the multi-model ensemble mean of these models. The employed methodology also allows quantifying the contribution of the identified patterns to the actual S2S models precipitation retrospective prediction quality, assessed through the association attribute, as well as to the estimated potential predictability. The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation were identified as the main climate drivers contributing to both retrospective austral summer sub-seasonal precipitation prediction quality and the estimated potential predictability over South America.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Caio Coelho (National Institute for Space Research – Brazil)
\nMarisol Osman (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology – Germany)
\nMariano Alvarez (University of Buenos Aires – Argentina)
\nCarolina Vera (University of Buenos Aires – Argentina)
\nIracema Cavalcanti (National Institute for Space Research – Brazil)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 128 Evaluating the representation of South America precipitation variability patterns in sub-seasonal predictions of S2S project models Lead Author: Felipe M. de Andrade National Institute for Space Research,…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-949","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 128 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 128 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 128 Evaluating the representation of South America precipitation variability patterns in sub-seasonal predictions of S2S project models Lead Author: Felipe M. de Andrade National Institute for Space Research,...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 128 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-02T22:28:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-02T22:28:46+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Programme\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Abstract 128\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\",\"name\":\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"description\":\"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Abstract 128 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 128 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 128 Evaluating the representation of South America precipitation variability patterns in sub-seasonal predictions of S2S project models Lead Author: Felipe M. de Andrade National Institute for Space Research,...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"2 minutes","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/","name":"Abstract 128 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-07-02T22:28:46+00:00","dateModified":"2023-07-02T22:28:46+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract128\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Programme","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Abstract 128"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/","name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","description":"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/145"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=949"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/949\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":956,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/949\/revisions\/956"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}