{"id":969,"date":"2023-07-02T23:48:11","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T22:48:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=969"},"modified":"2023-07-02T23:48:11","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T22:48:11","slug":"abstract136","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract136\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 136"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 136<\/p>\n

Madden\u2013Julian Oscillation prediction skill of CAS-IAP model<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Yangke Liu
\nCAS-IAP, China
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> MJO prediction skill, CAS-IAP model, Four types of MJO, A Time-varying Nudging method<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Madden\u2013Julian Oscillation (MJO) prediction skill of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) (CAS-IAP) model is comprehensively accessed in this study. CAS-IAP model has participated in the second phase of the S2S project since 2021, and real-time forecast and re-forecast results were available on the S2S database in early 2022. The forecast model is the second finite-volume version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system (FGOALS-f2), developed in IAP, CAS. FGOALS-f2 represents the interaction between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. As for the 20 years of re-forecast from 1999 to 2018, four ensemble members were initialed with a time-varying nudging technology.
\nFirstly, to access the MJO prediction skill in the CAS-IAP model, the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index was used. Then the fast-propagating, slow-propagating, standing, and jumping patterns of MJO events in the CAS-IAP model were evaluated individually. Last, in the discussion session, a group of sensitivity experiments with an improved initialization scheme was used to investigate the potential improvement of MJO prediction skills in the CAS-IAP model.
\nThe evaluation results indicate that the prediction skill of MJO for the CAS-IAP model is approximately 23 days. It is also worth pointing out that MJO events with more substantial initial MJO amplitude are typically better predicted. Further analysis shows that FGOALS-f2 reasonably captures the main features of the MJO, such as the eastward-propagating signal in the MJO frequency band, the symmetric and asymmetric structures of the MJO, several convectively coupled equatorial waves, and the MJO life cycle. However, the IAP-CAS model underestimates the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) amplitude and overestimates 850hPa zonal wind. In addition, MJO predicted by the model also shows a faster propagation speed than the observations. Based on the MJO diagnostic theory, the four types of MJO prediction skills, fast-propagating, slow-propagating, standing, and jumping patterns of MJO, are 32, 22, 19, and 29 days. The dynamic analysis indicated that the prediction in the low-level moisture field of slow-propagating MJO was worse than that of the fast-propagating MJO. Finally, the sensitivity experiments reveal that the initialization with a moisture field can effectively improve the prediction skills of slow-propagating MJO, which substantially contribute to the improvement of MJO prediction skill in the CAS-IAP model.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Yangke Liu\uff0cQing Bao\uff0cLingjun Zeng\uff0cBian He\uff0c Xiaofei Wu\uff0c Yimin Liu and Guoxiong Wu[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 136 Madden\u2013Julian Oscillation prediction skill of CAS-IAP model Lead Author: Yangke Liu CAS-IAP, China Keywords: MJO prediction skill, CAS-IAP model, Four types of MJO, A Time-varying Nudging method…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-969","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 136 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract136\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 136 - 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