{"id":986,"date":"2023-07-03T00:02:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T23:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=986"},"modified":"2023-07-03T00:02:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T23:02:00","slug":"abstract148","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 148"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 148<\/p>\n

Equatorial waves: precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Xiangbo Feng
\nNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> medium range prediction, tropical cyclone, equatorial waves<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the medium range remains challenging. Here, we find that the pre-existing westward-moving equatorial waves can inform the risk of TC occurrence and intensification, based on a dataset obtained by synchronising objectively identified TCs and equatorial waves in a climate reanalysis. Globally, westward-moving equatorial waves can be precursors to 60\u201370% of pre-tropical cyclogenesis events, and to >80% of the events with the strongest vorticity, related to the favourable environmental conditions within the pouch of equatorial waves. We further find that when storms are in-phase with westward-moving equatorial waves, the intensification rate of TCs is augmented, whilst in other phases of the waves, storm intensity grows more slowly, or even decays. Coherent wave packets associated with TCs are identifiable up to two weeks ahead. Our findings show that westward-moving equatorial waves can be useful medium-range precursors to TC activity.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Gui-Ying Yang (National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
\nKevin I. Hodges (National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
\nJohn Methven (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 148 Equatorial waves: precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification Lead Author: Xiangbo Feng National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: medium range prediction,…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-986","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 148 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 148 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 148 Equatorial waves: precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification Lead Author: Xiangbo Feng National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: medium range prediction,...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 148 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-02T23:02:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-02T23:02:00+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Programme\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Abstract 148\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/\",\"name\":\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\",\"description\":\"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Abstract 148 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Abstract 148 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","og_description":"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 148 Equatorial waves: precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification Lead Author: Xiangbo Feng National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: medium range prediction,...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/","og_site_name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"2 minutes","Written by":"Robert Lee"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/","name":"Abstract 148 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-07-02T23:02:00+00:00","dateModified":"2023-07-02T23:02:00+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract148\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Programme","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Abstract 148"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/#website","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/","name":"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023","description":"Advancing Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions and their Applications","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/145"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=986"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/986\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1003,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/986\/revisions\/1003"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}