{"id":989,"date":"2023-07-03T00:07:42","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T23:07:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=989"},"modified":"2023-07-03T00:07:42","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T23:07:42","slug":"abstract151","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract151\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 151"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 151<\/p>\n

Stratospheric influenece on North Atlantic storm track predictability in subseasonal-to-seasonal reforecasts<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Hilla Afargan-Gerstman
\nETH Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability , extratropical cyclones , stratosphere-troposphere coupling, storm track, North Atlantic variability<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Intense winter storms are a major natural hazard in the extratropics. These storms can cause substantial economic damages, lead to flooding and heavy snowfall, and impact electricity and transportation networks. Skilful predictions of winter storms, on timescales of several weeks to months, rely on the connection between the storm tracks and large-scale atmospheric variability modes. One important factor influencing winter storms is the stratosphere, where extreme stratospheric polar vortex events, such as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) or extremely strong polar vortex (SPV) states, can have a downward impact on surface weather for several weeks to months. Thus, identifying forecast biases in the downward impact of stratospheric polar vortex events has the potential to improve the predictability of winter storms on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales.
\nUsing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data and ECMWF reforecasts from the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project database, we investigate the predictability of extratropical cyclones following stratospheric polar vortex events. Cyclone forecasts following SPV events are found to be generally more successful relative to forecasts after SSW events. We further use the Brier score to assess skill, and discuss the differences in predictability of extratropical cyclones between the two types of stratospheric extremes. The results provide new insights on the role of the stratosphere in subseasonal predictability of winter storms that can be used for forecasting their frequency and surface impacts.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Dominik B\u00fceler (ETH Z\u00fcrich), C. Ole Wulff (NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre, Bergen, Norway), Michael Sprenger (ETH Z\u00fcrich), and Daniela I.V. Domeisen (University of Lausanne, ETH Z\u00fcrich)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 151 Stratospheric influenece on North Atlantic storm track predictability in subseasonal-to-seasonal reforecasts Lead Author: Hilla Afargan-Gerstman ETH Z\u00fcrich, Switzerland Keywords: subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability , extratropical cyclones , stratosphere-troposphere coupling,…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-989","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 151 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract151\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 151 - 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