{"id":1500,"date":"2019-08-04T16:43:06","date_gmt":"2019-08-04T15:43:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/scenario\/?p=1500"},"modified":"2023-11-10T14:46:29","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T14:46:29","slug":"sc2024_38","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/scenario\/sc2024_38\/","title":{"rendered":"SC2024_38 How will extreme weather affect the energy sector in Europe under climate change?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lead Supervisor: Reinhard Schiemann<\/a>, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science<\/strong>
\nEmail: r.k.schiemann@reading.ac.uk<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Co-supervisors:\u00a0<\/strong>David Brayshaw, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology; Laurent Dubus, RTE R\u00e9seau de Transport d’Electricit\u00e9, Paris; Christian Grams, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Weather affects both electricity supply and demand, for example during still and cold winter days when low supply from wind turbines coincides with high demand for heating. Calm and hot summer weather can put pressures on fuel supply chains, the cooling capacity of power plants, and wind power generation, while also benefitting solar energy production. In the UK and northwest Europe, 2021 saw very low wind speeds, while the hot summer of 2022 brought shipping on the river Rhine almost to a standstill and curtailed nuclear power generation in France due to a lack of cooling water (Figure 1). These events highlight the need for the energy industry to anticipate and manage these extremes, which in turn requires research to determine how these impactful types of weather are affected by climate change: this is the aim of this PhD.<\/p>\n

\"Photo<\/p>\n

Walney Extension windfarm off Cumbria coast<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Photo<\/p>\n

Coal barge on the Rhine during low flow. Rivers are transport links and provide cooling water to power plants.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Two factors to consider when assessing the impact of extreme weather on the energy sector are forced climate change<\/em> and natural variability<\/em>. Forced change of Earth\u2019s climate is due to, for example, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Natural variability refers to variations in the climate system that occur even in the absence of forced change (and in parallel to it). On timescales of years to a few decades \u2013 i.e., the typical planning horizon for energy-systems \u2013 it is an open question as to which of these two processes will dominate variations in extreme weather impacting the energy sector. Untangling the role of each is challenging, but possible, and will be a central research question for this thesis.<\/p>\n

This project will address fundamental science questions about extreme weather in a changing climate while also generating knowledge and data urgently required by the energy industry (e.g., Bloomfield et al. 2021). Using a combination of newly available tools, we will answer the following questions:<\/p>\n