2024

Vessey, A. F., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Day, J. J. (2024) The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science. ISSN 1684-9981 (In Press)

O'Neill, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6527-5334, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Cheffings, C., Norris, K. and Pettorelli, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1594-6208 (2024) Investigating odonates' response to climate change in Great Britain: a tale of two strategies. Diversity and Distributions. e13816. ISSN 1472-4642 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13816

Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Johnson, S. J. and Weisheimer, A. (2024) Understanding the intermittency of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S multi-model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (15). e2024GL108472. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472

2023

O'Neill, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6527-5334, Häkkinen, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1404-5798, Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Cheffings, C., Norris, K. and Pettorelli, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1594-6208 (2023) Investigating the potential of social media and citizen science data to track changes in species' distributions. Ecology and Evolution, 13 (5). e10063. ISSN 2045-7758 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10063

Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2023) Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4). e2022MS003537. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003537

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Hillier, J., Griffin, A., Kay, A. L., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Pianosi, F., James, R., Kumar, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2253-4129, Champion, A. and Bates, P. D. (2023) Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales. Weather and Climate Extremes, 39. 100550. ISSN 22120947 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100550

2022

Sainsbury, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5626-5583, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bhatia, K. T. and Bourdin, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2635-5654 (2022) Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (4). pp. 1359-1379. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Bhatia, K. T. (2022) Why do some post-tropical cyclones impact europe? Monthly Weather Review, 150 (10). pp. 2553-2571. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0111.1

Vessey, A. F., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Day, J. J. (2022) The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (3). pp. 1097-1112. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Bhatia, K. T. (2022) What governs the interannual variability of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones? Journal of Climate, 35 (12). pp. 3627-3641. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0712.1

Bresson, H., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Zappa, G. and Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2022) The response of Northern Hemisphere polar lows to climate change in a 25 km high-resolution global climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (4). e2021JD035610. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035610

Osso, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Maraun, D. (2022) Emerging new climate extremes over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 58. pp. 487-501. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 (2022) Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Nature Communications, 13. 1148. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28816-5

2021

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s due to climate change? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741). pp. 4143-4162. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4172

2020

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Cook, P., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2020) The response of the northern hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams to climate change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125 (23). e2020JD032701. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701

Hunt, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2020) The impacts of climate change on the winter water cycle of the western Himalaya. Climate Dynamics, 55 (7-8). pp. 2287-2307. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05383-3

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350 and Bhatia, K. T. (2020) How important are post-tropical cyclones for European windstorm risk? Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18). e2020GL089853. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089853

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2020) Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter? Climate Dynamics, 55 (5-6). pp. 1225-1245. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3

Ossó, A., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2020) Development, amplification, and decay of Atlantic/European summer weather patterns linked to spring North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Journal of Climate, 33 (14). pp. 5939-5951. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0613.1

Priestley, M. D. K., Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Pinto, J. G. (2020) The role of secondary cyclones and cyclone families for the North Atlantic storm track and clustering over western Europe. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (728). pp. 1184-1205. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3733

Vessey, A., F., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Day, J. J. (2020) An inter-comparison of Arctic synoptic scale storms between four global reanalysis datasets. Climate Dynamics, 54. pp. 2777-2795. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05142-4

2019

Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Strachan, J. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2019) Enhanced climate change response of wintertime North Atlantic circulation, cyclonic activity and precipitation in a 25 km-resolution global atmospheric model. Journal of Climate, 32 (22). pp. 7763-7781. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0054.1

Ossó, A., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2019) Impact of air-sea coupling on northern hemisphere summer climate and the monsoon-desert teleconnection. Climate Dynamics, 53 (7-8). pp. 5063-5078. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04846-6

Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2019) Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (16). pp. 10159-10167. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084402

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2019) Representation of western disturbances in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 1997-2011. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0420.1

Hoke, W., Swierczynski, T., Braesicke, P., Lochte, K., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Drews, M., Gregow, H., Ludwig, R., Nilsen, J. E. Ø., Palazzi, E., Sannino, G. and Smedsrud, L. H. (2019) The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA): collaboration from bottom-up. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 46. pp. 1-10. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2019) Falling trend of western disturbances in future climate simulations. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 5037-5051. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0601.1

2018

Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Weisheimer, A. and Scaife, A. A. (2018) An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15). pp. 7808-7817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838

Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Yiou, P., Hauser, M., Lott, F. C., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Colfescu, I., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Hegerl, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2018) Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3537-3555. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7

Thornhill, G. D., Ryder, C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9892-6113, Highwood, E. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Johnson, B. T. (2018) The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18 (8). pp. 5321-5342. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5321-2018

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2018) Extreme daily rainfall in Pakistan and north India: scale-interactions, mechanisms, and precursors. Monthly Weather Review, 146 (4). pp. 1005-1022. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0258.1

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Scaife, A. A. (2018) Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (S1). e437-e453. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Polo, I., Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Stevens, D. P. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2018) Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 921-937. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2

Osso, A., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2018) Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115 (1). pp. 59-63. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713146114

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2018) The evolution, seasonality, and impacts of western disturbances. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (710). pp. 278-290. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3200

Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Johnson, S. J., Roberts, M. J., Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S. and Strachan, J. (2018) Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (7). pp. 3933-3950. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018

Bloomfield, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2018) The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabff9

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2018) A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (9). 094004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad5c5

Priestley, M. D. K., Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Pinto, J. G. (2018) The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 18. pp. 2991-3006. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018

2017

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2017) Attribution of forced decadal climate change in coupled and uncoupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments. Journal of Climate, 30 (16). pp. 6203-6223. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0578.1

Priestley, M. D. K., Pinto, J. G., Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2017) The role of cyclone clustering during the stormy winter of 2013/2014. Weather, 72 (7). pp. 187-192. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3025

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dixon, R. (2017) Extra-tropical cyclones. In: Foote, M., Hillier, J., Mitchell-Wallace, K. and Jones, M. (eds.) Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioners Guide. Wiley, Hoboken, USA, pp. 202-208, Chapter 3.3. ISBN 9781118906040 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118906057

Hawcroft, M., Dacre, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Forbes, R., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Stein, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397 (2017) Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 48 (7). pp. 2255-2278. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2017) Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Climate Dynamics, 48 (5). pp. 1537-1554. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3158-8

Priestley, M. D. K., Pinto, J. G., Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2017) Rossby wave breaking, the upper level jet, and serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in western Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (1). pp. 514-521. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071277

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Stevens, D. P., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Polo, I., Stevens, I., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Lister, G., Iwi, A., Smith, D. and Stephens, A. (2017) Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation. Climate Dynamics, 48 (1). pp. 297-311. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x

Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Demory, M.-E., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Strachan, J., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Matsueda, M., Wehner, M. F. and Jung, T. (2017) The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric global circulation models. Journal of Climate, 30 (1). pp. 337-358. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1

2016

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2016) The 2015 European heat wave. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97. S57-S62. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2016) Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (12). 124025. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124025

Tous, M., Zappa, G., Romero, R., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2016) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Climate Dynamics, 47 (5). pp. 1913-1924. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2

Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 (2016) Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones? Climate Dynamics, 47 (3-4). pp. 679-695. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z

Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S., Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Karremann, M. K. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2016) Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method. Tellus A, 68. 32204. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204

Kennedy, D., Parker, T., Woollings, T., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2016) The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13). pp. 7250-7258. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069725

2015

Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2015) Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation. Journal of Climate, 28 (24). pp. 9606-9622. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0316.1

Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2015) A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component. Climate Dynamics, 45 (11). pp. 3205-3226. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2534-0

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Woollings, T. J. (2015) Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks. Climate Dynamics, 45 (9). pp. 2847-2860. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8

Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 (2015) Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 45 (7-8). pp. 1727-1738. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8

Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Pinto, J. G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Zappa, G. (2015) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (693). pp. 3076-3087. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2591

Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2015) Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (691). pp. 2070-2076. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2502 (Part B)

Rhodes, R. I., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X (2015) Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1114-1120. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2418

2014

Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E. and Youngman, B. D. (2014) The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14. pp. 2487-2501. ISSN 1561-8633 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2014) The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9). S61-S66. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Woollings, T. (2014) Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Climate Dynamics, 43 (5-6). pp. 1171-1182. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1883-9

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis? Monthly Weather Review, 142 (8). pp. 2596-2608. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00064.1

Pearson, K. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1466-1472. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2428

Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Strachan, J. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2014) The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution. Climate Dynamics, 42 (9-10). pp. 2455-2468. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1997-0

Zappa, G., Masato, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Woollings, T. and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (1). pp. 135-139. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058480

2013

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bröcker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Sansom, P. G. and Stephenson, D. B. (2013) A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. Journal of Climate, 26 (16). pp. 5846-5862. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Journal of Climate, 26 (15). pp. 5379-5396. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Underwood, F. M. (2013) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (3-4). pp. 917-935. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9

Lloyd-Hughes, B., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 and Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436 (2013) An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (8). pp. 2024-2035. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3570

Sansom, P. G., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Zappa, G. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2013) Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments. Journal of Climate, 26 (12). pp. 4017-4037. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1

Marathayil, D., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Levine, R. C. (2013) Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014028

Guo, L., Highwood, E., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2013) The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13. pp. 1521-1534. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013

2012

Woollings, T., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Zahn, M. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2012) On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (24). L24802. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054016

Hawcroft, M., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Dacre, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 (2012) How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones? Geophysical Research Letters, 39. ISSN 0094-8276

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Woollings, T. J., Zappa, G. and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2012) How large are projected 21st century storm track changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18707. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052873

Keeley, S., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2012) The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (668). pp. 1774-1783. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1912

2011

Balan Sarojini, B., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107, Bigg, G.R., Blaker, A.T., Cameron, D., Edwards, N.R., Megann, A.P., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sinha, B. (2011) High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science Discussion, 8. pp. 219-246. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-8-219-2011

De Tero, G., Toniazzo, T. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2011) Ethiopian rainfall in climate models. In: Williams , C. J. R. and Kniveton , D. R. (eds.) African climate and climate change: physical, social and political perspective. Advances in Global Change Research (43). Springer, pp. 51-70. ISBN 9789048138418

Balan Sarojini, B., Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107, Bigg, G.R., Blaker, A.T., Cameron, D.R., Edwards, N.R., Megann, A.P., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sinha, B. (2011) High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science, 7 (4). pp. 471-486. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-471-2011

Toniazzo, T., Abel, S. J., Wood, R., Mechoso, C. R., Allen, G. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2011) Large-scale and synoptic meteorology in the south-east Pacific during the observations campaign VOCALS-REx in austral Spring 2008. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 (10). pp. 4977-5009. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4977-2011

Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2011) Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Journal of Climate, 24 (20). pp. 5336-5352. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1

2010

Toniazzo, T., Mechoso, C. R., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Slingo, J. M. (2010) Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 35 (7-8). pp. 1309-1329. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0703-8

Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2010) Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones? Journal of Climate, 23 (7). pp. 1621-1635. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1

2009

Keeley, S. P. E., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L22706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367

Roberts, M. J., Clayton, A., Demory, M.-E., Donners, J., Vidale, P.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Norton, W., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stevens, D. P., Stevens, I., Wood, R. A. and Slingo, J. (2009) Impact of resolution on the tropical pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. Journal of Climate, 22 (10). pp. 2541-2556. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stevens, I., Norton, W., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Harle, J. D., Jrrar, A., Stevens, D. P., Woodage, M. J., Demory, M.-E., Donners, J., Clark, D. B., Clayton, A., Cole, J. W., Wilson, S. S., Connolley, W. M., Davies, T. M., Iwi, A. M., Johns, T. C., King, J. C., New, A. L., Slingo, J. M., Slingo, A., Steenman-Clark, L. and Martin, G. M. (2009) U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model—Model Description and Basic Evaluation. Journal of Climate, 22 (8). pp. 1861-1896. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2508.1

Challinor, A., Osborne, T. M., Morse, A., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Wheeler, T. R., Weller, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4553-7082 and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2009) Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (6). pp. 836-848. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2403.1

2006

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1167-1181. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3652.1

2004

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2004) The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 17 (7). pp. 1433-1448. ISSN 1520-0442

2002

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hoskins, B. J. and Lu, R. (2002) The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128 (586). pp. 2607-2622. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.01.145