2024

Weisheimer, A., Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Bröcker, J., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Palmer, T. N., Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Smith, D. N. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2024) The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (3). E651-E659. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1

Simpson, I., Hanna, E., Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Sun, Y. and Wei, H.-L. (2024) North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices: links with summer and winter temperature and precipitation in north-west Europe, including persistence and variability. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8364

Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Johnson, S. J. and Weisheimer, A. (2024) Understanding the intermittency of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S multi-model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (15). e2024GL108472. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108472

2023

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Charlton-Perez, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220 and Mattu, K. L. (2023) Skilful sub-seasonal forecasts of aggregated temperature over Europe. Meteorological Applications, 30 (6). e2169. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2169

2021

Beverley, J. D., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Johnson, S. J., Weisheimer, A. and O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 (2021) Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection. Climate Dynamics, 57. pp. 2615-2636. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s due to climate change? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741). pp. 4143-4162. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4172

2019

Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2019) Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (16). pp. 10159-10167. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084402

Beverley, J. D., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Johnson, S. J. and Weisheimer, A. (2019) The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill. Climate Dynamics, 52 (5-6). pp. 3729-3771. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4371-4

2018

Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Weisheimer, A. and Scaife, A. A. (2018) An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15). pp. 7808-7817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Scaife, A. A. (2018) Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (S1). e437-e453. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Migliorini, S., Rudd, A. C. and Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 (2018) Methods of investigating forecast error sensitivity to ensemble size in a limited-area convection-permitting ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions. 260. ISSN 1991-962X doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-260

2016

Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Hodnebrog, Ø., Olivié, D., Cherian, R., MacIntosh, C., Samset, B., Esteve, A., Aamaas, B., Quaas, J. and Myhre, G. (2016) Regional and seasonal radiative forcing by perturbations to aerosol and ozone precursor emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16 (21). pp. 13885-13910. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016

MacIntosh, C. R., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Collins, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Mousavi, Z. and Shine, K. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978 (2016) Contrasting fast precipitation responses to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (3). pp. 1263-1271. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067231

2015

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Collins, W. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Olivie, D. J. L., Cherian, R., Myhre, G. and Quaas, J. (2015) Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (14). pp. 8201-8216. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015

Vaughan, G., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Anderson, D., Antonescu, B., Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Baker, T. P., Ballard, S. P., Bower, K. N., Brown, P. R. A., Chagnon, J., Choularton, T. W., Chylik, J., Connolly, P. J., Cook, P. A., Cotton, R. J., Crosier, J., Dearden, C., Dorsey, J. R., Frame, T. H. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Gallagher, M. W., Goodliff, M., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Knippertz, P., Lean, H. W., Li, D., Lloyd, G., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Nicol, J., Norris, J., Öström, E., Owen, J., Parker, D. J., Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022, Renfrew, I. A., Roberts, N. M., Rosenberg, P., Rudd, A. C., Schultz, D. M., Taylor, J. P., Trzeciak, T., Tubbs, R., Vance, A. K., Van Leeuwen, P. J., Wellpott, A. and Woolley, A. (2015) Cloud banding and winds in intense European cyclones: results from the DIAMET project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (2). pp. 249-265. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00238.1

Stohl, A., Aamaas, B., Amann, M., Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Berntsen, T. K., Boucher, O., Cherian, R., Collins, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Daskalakis, N., Dusinska, M., Eckhardt, S., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Harju, M., Heyes, C., Hodnebrog, Ø., Hao, J., Im, U., Kanakidou, M., Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Law, K. S., Lund, M. T., Maas, R., MacIntosh, C., Myhre, G., Myriokefalitakis, S., Olivié, D., Quaas, J., Quennehen, B., Raut, J.-C., Rumbold, S. T., Samset, B. H., Schulz, M., Seland, Ø., Shine, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978, Skeie, R. B., Wang, S., Yttri, K. E. and Zhu, T. (2015) Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (18). pp. 10529-10566. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015

2014

Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022 (2014) Distinguishing the cold conveyor belt and sting jet air streams in an intense extratropical cyclone. Monthly Weather Review, 142 (8). pp. 2571-2595. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00348.1

Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226 (2014) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 96-110. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Rudd, A., Migliorini, S. and Bannister, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2014) Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21. pp. 19-39. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-19-2014 (special issue 'Ensemble methods in geophysical sciences')

2013

Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226 and Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 (2013) Objective detection of sting jets in low-resolution datasets. Meteorological Applications, 20 (1). pp. 41-55. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.297

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Knippertz, P. (2013) Flying through extratropical cyclone Friedhelm. Weather, 68 (1). pp. 9-13. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2047

2011

Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 and Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226 (2011) Conditional symmetric instability in sting-jet storms. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (659). pp. 1482-1500. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.859

2009

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 (2009) Sting jets in severe northern European wind storms. Weather, 64 (6). pp. 143-148. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.397