Dr. David Brayshaw
Associate Professor in Climate Science and Energy Meteorology
Energy meteorology group: https://research.reading.ac.uk/met-energy
University energy group: http://www.reading.ac.uk/energy
Dynamical processes group: https://research.reading.ac.uk/met-dynamic/
Research interests:
- Large-scale atmospheric dynamics and extratropical storm tracks
- Impacts of weather and climate on human and environmental systems, especially energy
- Weather and climate forecasting for risk management
Current research projects:
- Process-based climate simulation: advances in high-resolution modelling and European climate risk assessment (PRIMAVERA)
- Subseasonal to Seasonal forecasting for energy (S2S4E)
- Renewable Energy Spatial Analysis Tool (RE-SAT)
Previous research projects:
- Ocean dynamics as a driver of seasonal to decadal European atmospheric variability (ODYSEA)
- European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM)
- Subseasonal predictability for energy
- UK wind power extremes and predictability (with National Grid, see here for selected model and data outputs)
- Hydrological extremes and feedbacks in the changing water cycle HYDEF
- TEMPEST storm risk mitigation
- Understanding the Mediterranean storm track
- Spatio-climatic variability on environment-hosted land-based renewables (Microclimates)
- Water, Life and Civilisation
Current postdoctoral & graduate student supervision
- Paula Gonzalez is a postdoc, working on energy-climate interactions through the PRIMAVERA and S2S4E projects.
- David Livings is a postdoc, working on subseasonal predictability and forecasting for the energy sector in the S2S4E project.
- Hannah Bloomfield is a postdoc, working on energy-climate interactions through the S2S4E project.
- Dan Hdidouan is a final year PhD student at Imperial, lead supervised by Iain Staffell and Rob Gross at Imperial on the impact of climate change on renewable resources of Europe and North Africa.
- Adriaan Hilbers is a third year PhD student at the Mathematics for Planet Earth CDT (jointly between Reading and Imperial), seeking to understand climate uncertainty in power system planning.
- James Fallon is a first year PhD student in the SCENARIO DTP, seeking to understand forecast value in complex decision-making systems.
Previous postdoctoral & graduate student supervision
- Gabriel Wolf : understanding of European climate extremes and quasi-stationary waves through the ODYSEA project.
- Emma Suckling: climate variability and predictability for energy systems through the S2S4E and ECEM projects.
- Dirk Cannon: UK wind power extremes and predictability (postdoc with National Grid).
- Hazel Thornton: European climate and renewable energy generation - variabilty, mechanisms, predictability and impacts (Met Office PhD, co-supervised with Brian Hoskins and Adam Scaife).
- Alan Halford: impacts of weather and climate on telecommunications (EngD with BT and TSBE Centre, cosupervised by Stefan Smith).
- Hannah Bloomfield: Future climate, future energy (PhD with UK Met Office, cosupervisor Len Shaffrey).
- Kieran Lynch: Subseasonal forecasting for the energy sector (PhD with NERC and Centrica, cosupervisor Andrew Charlton-Perez).
- Caroline Holmes: The impact of Arctic sea ice change on midlatitude climate (PhD with NERC, cosupervised with Tim Woollings and Len Shaffrey).
- Francisco Santos-Alamillos: Optimising European renewable portfolios.
- Kostas Philippopoulos: Using Self Organising Maps to understand extreme wind power events in the UK.
- Giacomo Masato: Weather typing and climate change for energy.
Other interests
- Interdisciplinary research
- Working with industry
- Mediterranean climate and palaeoclimate
Centaur Publications
2021
Bloomfield, H. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Gonzalez, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0154-0087 and Charlton-Perez, A.
(2021)
Sub-seasonal forecasts of demand, wind power and solar power
generation for 28 European Countries.
Earth System Science Data.
ISSN 1866-3516
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-312
(In Press)
Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J., Troccoli, A., Goodess, C. M., De Felice, M., Dubus, L., Bett, P. E. and Saint-Drenan, Y.-M. (2021) Quantifying the sensitivity of European power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections. Renewable Energy, 164. pp. 1062-1075. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125
Bloomfield, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Gonzalez, P., Lundquist, J., Stoop, L., Browell, J., Dargaville, R., De Felice, M., Gruber, K., Hilbers, A., Kies, A., Panteli, M., Thornton, H., Wohland, J., Zeyringer, M. and Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362
(2021)
The importance of weather and climate to energy systems: a workshop on next generation challenges in energy-climate modelling.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (1).
E159-E167.
ISSN 1520-0477
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0256.1
2020
Hilbers, A., Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Gandy, A.
(2020)
Efficient quantification of the impact of demand and weather uncertainty in power system models.
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
ISSN 0885-8950
doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2020.3031187
(In Press)
Wohland, J., Brayshaw, D. J., Bloomfield, H. and Wild, M. (2020) European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (10). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6
Coker, P. J., Bloomfield, H. C., Drew, D. R. and Brayshaw, D. J. (2020) Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design. Renewable Energy, 150. pp. 509-522. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.12.082
Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J. and Charlton-Perez, A. J. (2020) Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types. Meteorological Applications, 27 (1). e1858. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1858
Wolf, G., Czaja, A., Brayshaw, D. J. and Klingaman, N. P. (2020) Connection between sea surface anomalies and atmospheric quasi-stationary waves. Journal of Climate, 33 (1). pp. 201-212. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0751.1
Hilbers, A. P., Brayshaw, D. and Gandy, A. (2020) Importance subsampling for power system planning under multi-year demand and weather uncertainty. In: International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 18-21 Aug 2020, Liege, Belgium. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183591
Brayshaw, D. J., Halford, A., Smith, S. and Kjeld, J. (2020) Quantifying the potential for improved management of weather risk using subseasonal forecasting: the case of UK telecommunications infrastructure. Meteorological Applications, 27 (1). e1849. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1849
2019
Goodess, C. M., Troccoli, A., Acton, C., Anel, J. A., Bett, P. E., Brayshaw, D., De Felice, M., Dorling, S. E., Dubus, L., Penny, L., Percy, B., Ranchin, T., Thomas, C., Trolliet, M. and Wald, L. (2019) Advancing climate services for the European renewable energy sector through capacity building and user engagement. Climate Services, 16. 100139. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100139
Hilbers, A. P., Brayshaw, D. J. and Gandy, A. (2019) Importance subsampling: improving power system planning under climate-based uncertainty. Applied Energy, 251. 113114. ISSN 0306-2619 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.110
Drew, D. R., Coker, P. J., Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J., Barlow, J. F. and Richards, A. (2019) Sunny windy Sundays. Renewable Energy, 138. pp. 870-875. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.029
Thornton, H. E., Scaife, A., Hoskins, B., Brayshaw, D., Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Stringer, N. and Bett, P. E. (2019) Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (2). 024009. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf338
Gonzalez, P. L. M., Brayshaw, D. J. and Zappa, G. (2019) The contribution of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for wind power over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 53 (7-8). pp. 4095-4113. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04776-3
2018
Wolf, G., Brayshaw, D. J., Klingaman, N. P. and Czaja, A. (2018) Quasi-stationary waves and their impact on European weather and extreme events. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (717). pp. 2431-2448. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3310
Troccoli, A., Goodess, C., Jones, P., Penny, L., Dorling, S., Harpham, C., Dubus, L., Parey, S., Claudel, S., Khong, D.-H., Bett, P. E., Thornton, H., Ranchin, T., Wald, L., Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., De Felice, M., Brayshaw, D., Suckling, E., Percy, B. and Blower, J. (2018) Creating a proof-of-concept climate service to assess future renewable energy mixes in Europe: an overview of the C3S ECEM project. Advances in Science and Research, 15. pp. 191-205. ISSN 1992-0636 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-191-2018
Brayshaw, D. (2018) Weather, climate and the nature of predictability. In: Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry. Palgrave Pivot, Basingstoke, pp. 85-95. ISBN 9783319684178 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68418-5_6
Brayshaw, D. (2018) The nature of weather and climate impacts in the energy sector. In: Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry. Palgrave Pivot, Basingstoke, pp. 151-160. ISBN 9783319684178 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68418-5_11
Bloomfield, H., Brayshaw, D. J., Shaffrey, L., Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2018) The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabff9
2017
Santos-Alamillos, F. J., Brayshaw, D., Methven, J., Thomaidis, N. S., Ruiz-Arias, J. A. and Pozo-Vazquez, D. (2017) Exploring the meteorological potential for planning a high performance European Electricity Super-grid: optimal power capacity distribution among countries. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11). 114030. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8f18
Thornton, H. E., Scaife, A. A., Hoskins, B. J. and Brayshaw, D. J. (2017) The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (6). 064017. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa69c6
Cannon, D., Brayshaw, D., Methven, J. and Drew, D. (2017) Determining the bounds of skilful forecast range for probabilistic prediction of system-wide wind power generation. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 26 (3). pp. 239-252. ISSN 0941-2948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0751
Peyron, O., Combourieu-Nebout, N., Brayshaw, D., Goring, S., Andrieu-Ponel, V., Desprat, S., Fletcher, W., Gambin, B., Ioakim, C., Joannin, S., Kotthoff, U., Kouli, K., Montade, V., Pross, J., Sadori, L. and Magny, M. (2017) Precipitation changes in the Mediterranean basin during the Holocene from terrestrial and marine pollen records: a model–data comparison. Climate of the Past, 13 (3). pp. 249-265. ISSN 1814-9324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-65
2016
Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2016) Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (12). 124025. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124025
2015
Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L., Black, E. and Brayshaw, D. J. (2015) Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 45 (7-8). pp. 1727-1738. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8
Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G. and Brayshaw, D. J. (2015) The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (6). 064002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002
Cannon, D.J., Brayshaw, D.J., Methven, J., Coker, P.J. and Lenaghan, D. (2015) Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain. Renewable Energy, 75. pp. 767-778. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.10.024
Drew, D., Cannon, D., Brayshaw, D., Barlow, J. and Coker, P. (2015) The impact of future offshore wind farms on wind power generation in Great Britain. Resources, 4 (1). pp. 155-171. ISSN 2079-9276 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/resources4010155
2014
Cannon, D. and Brayshaw, D. (2014) An aggregated wind power generation model based on MERRA reanalysis data: MATLAB model and example data for the April 2014 wind farm distribution of Great Britain. University of Reading.
Lynch, K. J., Brayshaw, D. J. and Charlton-Perez, A. (2014) Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 142 (8). pp. 2978-2990. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00341.1
2013
Kubik, M. L., Brayshaw, D. J., Coker, P. J. and Barlow, J. F. (2013) Exploring the role of reanalysis data in simulating regional wind generation variability over Northern Ireland. Renewable Energy, 57. pp. 558-561. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.02.012
Lavers, D. A., Allan, R. P., Villarini, G., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Brayshaw, D. J. and Wade, A. J. (2013) Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034010. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010
Ely, C. R., Brayshaw, D. J., Methven, J., Cox, J. and Pearce, O. (2013) Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway renewable power system. Energy Policy, 62. pp. 1420-1427. ISSN 0301-4215 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.037
2012
Saulière, J., Brayshaw, D. J., Hoskins, B. and Blackburn, M. (2012) Further investigation of the impact of idealised continents and SST distributions on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 69 (3). pp. 840-856. ISSN 0022-4928 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0113.1
Wade, A. J., Smith, S. J., Black, E. C. L., Brayshaw, D. J., Holmes, P.A.C., El-Bastawesy, M., Rambeau, C. M. C. and Mithen, S. J. (2012) A new method for the determination of Holocene palaeohydrology. Journal of Hydrology, 420-421. pp. 1-16. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.033
Brayshaw, D., Dent, C. and Zachary, S. (2012) Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand: meteorological insights. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 226 (1). pp. 44-50. ISSN 1748-0078 doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006X11417503
Abrantes, F., Voelker, A. (H. L.), Sierro, F. J., Naughton, F., Rodrigues, T., Cacho, I., Ariztegui, D., Brayshaw, D., Sicre, M.-A. and Batista, L. (2012) Paleoclimate variability in the Mediterranean region. In: Lionello, P. (ed.) The Climate of the Mediterranean Region. Elsevier, London, pp. 1-86. ISBN 9780124160422 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416042-2.00001-X
Woollings, T., Gregory, J. M., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M. and Brayshaw, D. J. (2012) Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling. Nature Geoscience, 5 (5). pp. 313-317. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1438
2011
Brayshaw, D., Hoskins, B. and Blackburn, M. (2011) The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part II: Sea surface temperatures. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (8). pp. 1784-1805. ISSN 0022-4928 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3674.1
Brayshaw, D. J., Troccoli, A., Fordham, R. and Methven, J. (2011) The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: a case study over the UK. Renewable Energy, 36 (8). pp. 2087-2096. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2011.01.025
Smith, S., Wade, A., Black, E., Brayshaw, D., Rambeau, C. and Mithen, S. (2011) From global climate change to local impact in Wadi Faynan, southern Jordan: ten millennia of human settlement in its hydrological context. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 218-244. ISBN 9780521769570
Black, E., Brayshaw, D., Slingo, J. and Hoskins, B. (2011) Future climate of the Middle East. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 51-62. ISBN 9780521769570
Brayshaw, D., Black, E., Hoskins, B. and Slingo, J. (2011) Past climates of the Middle East. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 25-50. ISBN 9780521769570
Black, E., Brayshaw, D., Black, S. and Rambeau, C. (2011) Using proxy data, historical climate data and climate models to investigate aridification during the Holocene. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 105-112. ISBN 9780521769570
Black, E., Hoskins, B., Slingo, J. and Brayshaw, D. (2011) The present-day climate of the Middle East. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 13-24. ISBN 9780521769570
Brayshaw, D. J., Rambeau, C. M. C. and Smith, S. J. (2011) Changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene: insights from global and regional climate modelling. Holocene, 21 (1). pp. 15-31. ISSN 0959-6836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610377528
Roberts, N., Brayshaw, D., Kuzucuoğlu, C., Perez, R. and Sadori, L. (2011) The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean: causes and consequences. The Holocene, 21 (1). pp. 3-13. ISSN 0959-6836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610388058
Zachary, S., Dent, C. J. and Brayshaw, D. (2011) Challenges in quantifying wind generation's contribution to securing peak demand. In: Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2011 IEEE, 24-29 July 2011, San DIego, CA, USA, pp. 1-8.
Lavers, D., Allan, R., Wood, E. F., Villarini, G., Brayshaw, D. and Wade, A. (2011) Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (23). L23803. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049783
2010
Wade, A. J., Black, E. C. L., Brayshaw, D. J., El-Bastawesy, M., Holmes, P. A. C., Butterfield, D., Nuimat, S. and Jamjoum, K. (2010) A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Part A, 368 (1931). pp. 5151-5172. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0207
Black, E. C. L., Brayshaw, D. J. and Rambeau, C. M. C. (2010) Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1931). pp. 5173-5184. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199
Brayshaw, D. J., Hoskins, B. and Black, E. (2010) Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1931). pp. 5185-5223. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0180
2009
Brayshaw, D. J., Hoskins, B. J. and Blackburn, M. (2009) The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: land-sea contrast and orography. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66 (9). pp. 2539-2558. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3078.1
Brayshaw, D. J., Woollings, T. J. and Vellinga, M. (2009) Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC. Journal of Climate, 22 (11). pp. 3146-3155. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2594.1
2008
Brayshaw, D. J., Hoskins, B. J. and Blackburn, M. (2008) The Storm-Track Response to Idealized SST Perturbations in an Aquaplanet GCM. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65 (9). pp. 2842-2860. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2657.1
Last update: 30th January 2019
