Dr. Jake Aylmer
Postdoctoral Research Assistant
Current research
The future of Arctic sea ice (2023–present)
Climate models indicate that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally ice free in the coming decades but these same models only achieve observed rates of ice loss under unrealistically high rates of polar warming, casting doubt over the quality of their projections. Using new theory, modelling, and observational analysis, this project will:
- simulate the observed rates of Arctic sea ice loss in combination with the observed rates of Arctic warming
- more tightly constrain when the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally ice free
- test the hypothesis that climate models’ mismatch between rates of sea ice loss and Arctic warming is a consequence of inadequate physical representation of the modern Arctic sea ice cover.
Project team:
- Danny Feltham (PI, Reading/CPOM)
- David Ferreira (CoI, Reading)
- David Schröder (CoI, Reading/CPOM)
- Michel Tsamados (CoI, UCL/CPOM)
Past research
Arctic summertime cyclones: dynamics and sea ice interaction (2022–2023)
Arctic sea ice can sometimes undergo large-scale retreat on timescales of days–weeks, presenting a challenge to forecasts. These very rapid ice loss events (VRILEs) are thought to be influenced by Arctic cyclones, but the mechanisms are not well understood. Here, the sea ice model CICE is used to study the processes by which Arctic cyclones affect sea ice loss during VRILEs.
This is part of a NERC project with PI John Methven, supervised by Co-I Danny Feltham. Further details are on the project site.
Not all ocean heat transport changes are created equal (2021–2022)
High-resolution ocean simulations with the MITgcm are used to examine the dynamical processes and timescales associated with heat release from the ocean interior to the surface. The aim is to better understand how variability in ocean heat transport impacts climate.
A NERC-funded project with PI David Ferreira.
Ocean heat transport and the latitude of the sea ice edge (2017–2021)
In coupled climate model simulations, ocean heat transport (OHT) is found to be a major driver of the sea ice cover on multidecadal timescales. A simple energy-balance model is developed and used to investigate the factors underlying this relationship. It is found that the emergent behaviour of climate models is captured by the simple model, that there are distinct behaviours of the Arctic and the Antarctic, and simulated future changes in OHT strongly modulate projected sea ice loss.
A PhD project funded by the SCENARIO Doctoral Training Partnership (cohort 4) and supervised by David Ferreira and Danny Feltham.
Research groups
Responsibilities
- Lunchtime seminars co-host/organiser
- Online classes in Statistics for Weather and Climate science
Centaur Publications
2024
Aylmer, J. R. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5159-0608, Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X
(2024)
Impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice captured by a simple energy balance model.
Communications Earth & Environment, 5.
406.
ISSN 2662-4435
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01565-7
2022
Aylmer, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5159-0608, Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X
(2022)
Different mechanisms of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice response to ocean heat transport.
Climate Dynamics, 59.
pp. 315-329.
ISSN 1432-0894
doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06131-x
Aylmer, J. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5159-0608
(2022)
Ocean heat transport and the latitude of sea ice edge.
PhD thesis, University of Reading.
doi: https://doi.org/10.48683/1926.00108418
2020
Aylmer, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5159-0608, Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X
(2020)
Impacts of oceanic and atmospheric heat transports on sea-ice extent.
Journal of Climate, 33 (16).
pp. 7197-7215.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0761.1
Last update: 28th November 2024
