Professor Liz Stephens
Professor
Centaur Publications
2023
Hossain, Sazzad, Cloke, Hannah L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Ficchi, Andrea, Gupta, Harshita, Speight, Linda
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Hassan, Ahmadul and Stephens, Elisabeth M.
(2023)
A decision-led evaluation approach for flood forecasting system developments: an application to the Global Flood Awareness System in Bangladesh.
Journal of Flood Risk Management.
ISSN 1753-318X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12959
Speight, Linda ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Stephens, Elizabeth, Hawker, Laurence, Baugh, Calum, Neal, Jeffrey, Cloke, Hannah
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Grey, Stephen, Titley, Helen, Marsden, Katherine, Sumner, Tim, Ficchi, Andrea, Prudhomme, Christel, Archer, Leanne, Bazo, Juan, Dambo, Janio, Dolan, Siobhan, Huhn, Anna Lena, Moschini, Francesca, Savage, James, Smith, Andy, Towner, Jamie and Wanzala, Maureen
(2023)
Recommendations to improve the interpretation of global flood forecasts to support international humanitarian operations for tropical cyclones.
Journal of Flood Risk Management.
e12952.
ISSN 1753-318X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12952
Mitheu, Faith, Stephens, Elisabeth, Petty, Celia, Ficchì, Andrea, Tarnavsky, Elena ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411 and Cornforth, Rosalind
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556
(2023)
Impact-based flood early warning for rural livelihoods in Uganda.
Weather, Climate, and Society, 15 (3).
pp. 525-539.
ISSN 1948-8335
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0089.1
Mitheu, Faith ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1655-449X, Tarnavsky, Elena
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Ficchì, Andrea, Stephens, Elisabeth, Cornforth, Rosalind and Petty, Celia
(2023)
The utility of impact data in flood forecast verification for anticipatory actions: case studies from Uganda and Kenya.
Journal of Flood Risk Management.
e12911.
ISSN 1753-318X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12911
2022
Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Fuentes, Ignacio, Jack, Christopher, Kruczkiewicz, Andrew, Pinto, Izidine and Stephens, Elisabeth (2022) Different types of drought under climate change or geoengineering: systematic review of societal implications. Frontiers in climate, 4. 959519. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.959519
Wanzala, Maureen A., Stephens, Elisabeth M., Cloke, Hannah L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Ficchi, Andrea
(2022)
Hydrological model preselection with a filter sequence for the national flood forecasting system in Kenya.
Journal of Flood Risk Management.
ISSN 1753-318X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12846
Mitheu, Faith, Petty, Celia, Tarnavsky, Elena ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Stephens, Elizabeth, Ciampi, Luisa
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-7695, Butsatsa, Jonah and Cornforth, Rosalind
(2022)
Identifying the barriers and opportunities in the provision and use of weather and climate information for flood risk preparedness: the case of Katakwi District, Uganda.
Frontiers in climate, 4.
908662.
ISSN 2624-9553
doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.908662
Wanzala, Maureen A., Ficchi, Andrea, Cloke, Hannah L., Stephens, Elisabeth M., Badjana, Heou M. and Lavers, David A. (2022) Assessment of global reanalysis precipitation for hydrological modelling in data–scarce regions: a case study of Kenya. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 41. 101105. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101105
Zsoter, Ervin, Arduini, Gabriele, Prudhomme, Christel, Stephens, Elisabeth and Cloke, Hannah (2022) Hydrological impact of the new ECMWF multi-Layer snow scheme. Atmosphere, 13 (5). 727. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050727
Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Stephens, Liz, van Aalst, Maarten, Bazo, Juan, Fournier-Tombs, Eleonore, Funk, Sebastian, Hess, Jeremy, Ranger, Nicola and Lowe, Rachel (2022) Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: best practice for linking models to policymaking. International Journal of Forecasting, 38 (2). pp. 521-526. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.08.003
2021
Ficchi, Andrea, Cloke, Hannah, Neves, Claudia ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5720, Woolnough, Steve
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Zsoter, Ervin, Pinto, Izidine, Meque, Arlindo and Stephens, Elisabeth
(2021)
Beyond El Niño: unsung climate modes drive African floods.
Weather and Climate Extremes, 33.
100345.
ISSN 2212-0947
doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100345
Towner, Jamie, Ficchi, Andrea, Cloke, Hannah L., Bazo, Juan, Coughlan de Perez, Erin and Stephens, Elisabeth M. (2021) Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25. pp. 3875-3895. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021
Titley, H. A., Cloke, H. L., Harrigan, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Robbins, J. C., Stephens, E. M. and Zsoter, E. (2021) Key factors influencing the severity of fluvial flood hazard from tropical cyclones. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (7). pp. 1801-1817. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0250.1
2020
Zsoter, Ervin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Prudhomme, Christel
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Stephens, Elisabeth
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, Florian
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 and Cloke, Hannah
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X
(2020)
Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting.
Journal of Flood Risk Management, 13 (4).
e12658.
ISSN 1753-318X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12658
Emerton, Rebecca, Cloke, Hannah, Ficchi, Andrea, Hawker, Laurence, de Wit, Sara, Speight, Linda, Prudhomme, Christel, Rundell, Philip, West, Rosalind, Neal, Jeffrey, Cuna, Joaquim, Harrigan, Shaun, Titley, Helen, Magnusson, Linus, Pappenberger, Florian, Klingaman, Nick and Stephens, Liz (2020) Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: a critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50. 101811. ISSN 2212-4209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
Zsótér, E, Cloke, H. L., Prudhomme, C., Harrigan, S., de Rosnay, P., Munoz-Sabater, J. and Stephens, E., (2020) Trends in the GloFAS-ERA5 river discharge reanalysis. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 871. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/p9jrh0xp
Arnal, Louise, Anspoks, Liz, Manson, Susan, Neumann, Jessica ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Norton, Tim, Stephens, Elisabeth
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wolfenden, Louise and Cloke, Hannah Louise
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X
(2020)
“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England.
Geoscience Communications, 3.
pp. 203-232.
ISSN 2569-7110
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
Towner, Jamie, Cloke, Hannah L., Lavado, Waldo, Santini, William, Bazo, Juan, Coughlan de Perez, Erin and Stephens, Elisabeth M. (2020) Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: a review. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1949. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1949
2019
FicchÌ, Andrea and Stephens, Liz (2019) Climate variability alters flood timing across Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (15). pp. 8809-8819. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL081988
Emerton, Rebecca E., Stephens, Elisabeth M. and Cloke, Hannah L. (2019) What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? Environmental Research Communications, 1 (3). ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e
Towner, Jamie, Cloke, Hannah L., Zsoter, Ervin, Flamig, Zachary, Hoch, Jannis M., Bazo, Juan, Coughlan de Perez, Erin and Stephens, Elisabeth M. (2019) Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23 (7). pp. 3057-3080. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019
Zsoter, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., De Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) How well do operational Numerical Weather Prediction configurations represent hydrology? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20 (8). pp. 1533-1552. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0086.1
Stephens, Elizabeth M., Spiegelhalter, David J., Mylne, Ken and Harrison, Mark (2019) The Met Office weather game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making. Geoscience Communications, 2. pp. 101-116. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019
2018
Emerton, Rebecca, Zsoter, Ervin, Arnal, Louise, Cloke, Hannah L., Muraro, Davide, Prudhomme, Christel, Stephens, Elisabeth M., Salamon, Peter and Pappenberger, Florian (2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11. pp. 3327-3346. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
Hirpa, F. A., Pappenberger, F., Arnal, L., Baugh, C. A., Cloke, H. L., Dutra, E., Emerton, R. E., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Smith, P. J., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E. and Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2018) Global flood forecasting for averting disasters worldwide. In: Schumann, G. J-P., Bates, P. D., Apel, H. and Aronica, G. T. (eds.) Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. Geophysical Monograph Series (233). Wiley, pp. 205-228. ISBN 9781119217862 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119217886.ch12
Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Van Aalst, Maarten, Bischiniotis, Konstantinos, Mason, Simon, Nissan, Hannah, Pappenberger, Florian, Stephens, Elisabeth and van den Hurk, Bart (2018) Global predictability of temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054017. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a
Arnal, Louise, Cloke, Hannah L., Stephens, Elisabeth, Wetterhall, Fredrik, Prudhomme, Christel, Neumann, Jessica, Krzeminski, Blazej and Pappenberger, Florian (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2057-2072. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
2017
Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1715-1729. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1
Emerton, Rebecca, Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E. M., Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard. Nature Communications, 8. 14796. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14796
Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Stephens, Elisabeth, Bischiniotis, Konstantinos, van Aalst, Maarten, van den Hurk, Bart, Mason, Simon, Nissan, Hannah and Pappenberger, Florian (2017) Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 (9). pp. 4517-4524. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
2016
Coughlan de Perez, Erin, van den Hurk, Bart, van Aalst, Maarten K., Amuron, Irene, Bamanya, Deus, Hauser, Tristan, Jongman, Brenden, Lopez, Ana, Mason, Simon, Mendler de Suarez, Janot, Pappenberger, Florian, Rueth, Alexandra, Stephens, Elisabeth, Suarez, Pablo, Wagemaker, Jurjen and Zsoter, Ervin (2016) Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (9). pp. 3549-3560. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-163
Arnal, Louise, Ramos, Maria-Helena, Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Cloke, Hannah, Stephens, Elisabeth, Wetterhall, Fredrik, van Andel, Shalk-Jan and Pappenberger, Florian (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (8). pp. 3109-3128. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. and Cloke, H. L. (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3 (3). pp. 391-418. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1137
2015
Stephens, Elisabeth, Day, Jonny J., Pappenberger, Florian and Cloke, Hannah (2015) Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (23). pp. 10316-10323. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066779
Stephens, Elisabeth and Bates, Paul (2015) Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions. Hydrological Processes, 29 (19). pp. 4264-4283. ISSN 08856087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10451
2014
Stephens, Elisabeth and Cloke, Hannah (2014) Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geographical Journal, 180 (4). pp. 310-316. ISSN 1475-4959 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103
Wong, Jefferson S., Freer, Jim E., Bates, Paul. D and Stephens, Elisabeth M. (2014) Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding. Hydrological Processes, 29 (2). pp. 261-279. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10148
2013
Pappenberger, Florian, Stephens, Elisabeth M., Thielen, Jutta, Salamon, Peter, Demeritt, David, Van Andel, Schalk Jan, Wetterhall, Fredrik and Alfieri, Lorenzo (2013) Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 132-146. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9253
Stephens, Elisabeth, Schumann, Guy and Bates, Paul (2013) Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation. Hydrological Processes, 28 (18). pp. 4928-4937. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9979
2012
Stephens, Elisabeth M, Edwards, Tamsin L and Demeritt, David (2012) Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3 (5). pp. 409-426. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.187
Stephens, Elisabeth M., Bates, P. D., Freer, J. and Mason, David (2012) The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models. Journal of Hydrology, 414-41. pp. 162-173. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.040 (414-415, 162-173)
Last update: 9th November 2023