Dr. Marlene Kretschmer
Senior Visiting Fellow
ERROR: The page cannot be displayed (Trying to load: http://www.personal.reading.ac.uk/~ag921438/userdetails.html)Centaur Publications
2024
Spuler, F. R., Kretschmer, M. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Kovalchuk, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4306-4680, Balmaseda, M. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968
(2024)
Identifying probabilistic weather regimes targeted to a
local-scale impact variable.
Environmental Data Science, 3.
e25.
ISSN 2634-4602
doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/eds.2024.29
Shen, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7116-1397, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968
(2024)
A forensic investigation of climate model biases in teleconnections: the case of the relationship between ENSO and the northern stratospheric polar vortex.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 129 (19).
e2024JD041252.
ISSN 0148-0227
doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041252
Materia, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5635-2847, García, L. P., van Straaten, C., O, S., Mamalakis, A., Cavicchia, L., Coumou, D., de Luca, P., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Donat, M.
(2024)
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: state of the art, challenges, and future perspectives.
WIREs Climate Change.
ISSN 1757-7799
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.914
Sippel, S., Barnes, C., Cadiou, C., Fischer, E., Kew, S., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Philip, S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Singh, J., Vautard, R. and Yiou, P.
(2024)
Could an extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963
happen again despite climate change?
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5 (3).
pp. 943-957.
ISSN 2698-4016
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
Mahecha, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3031-613X, Bastos, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7368-7806, Bohn, F. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7328-1187, Eisenhauer, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0371-6720, Feilhauer, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5758-6303, Hickler, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4668-7552, Kalesse‐Los, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6699-7040, Migliavacca, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3546-8407, Otto, F. E. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-5917, Peng, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4071-0512, Sippel, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4510-4458, Tegen, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3700-3232, Weigelt, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6242-603X, Wendisch, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4652-5561, Wirth, C., Al‐Halbouni, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2254-3914, Deneke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8595-533X, Doktor, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4761-3344, Dunker, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7276-776X, Duveiller, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6471-8404, Ehrlich, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0860-8216, Foth, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1164-3576, García‐García, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1333-4774, Guerra, C. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4917-2105, Guimarães‐Steinicke, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7829-641X, Hartmann, H., Henning, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9267-7825, Herrmann, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7044-2101, Hu, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4223-5161, Ji, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8154-0508, Kattenborn, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7381-3828, Kolleck, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5499-8617, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Kühn, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1691-8249, Luttkus, M. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7307-0622, Maahn, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2580-9100, Mönks, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1603-1173, Mora, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3323-4490, Pöhlker, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6852-0756, Reichstein, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5736-1112, Rüger, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2371-4172, Sánchez‐Parra, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3585-3201, Schäfer, M., Stratmann, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1977-1158, Tesche, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0096-4785, Wehner, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0611-4466, Wieneke, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8729-9751, Winkler, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6574-4471, Wolf, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7848-3725, Zaehle, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5602-7956, Zscheischler, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629 and Quaas, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7057-194X
(2024)
Biodiversity and climate extremes: known interactions and research gaps.
Earth's Future, 12 (6).
e2023EF003963.
ISSN 2328-4277
doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003963
Bommer, P. L., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Hedström, A., Bareeva, D. and Höhne, M. M.-C.
(2024)
Finding the right XAI method — a guide for the evaluation and ranking of explainable AI methods in climate science.
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 3 (3).
ISSN 2769-7525
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/aies-d-23-0074.1
Shaw, T. A., Arias, P. A., Collins, M., Coumou, D., Diedhiou, A., Garfinkel, C. I., Jain, S., Roxy, M. K., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Leung, L. R., Narsey, S., Martius, O., Seager, R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Sörensson, A. A., Stephenson, T., Taylor, M. and Wang, L.
(2024)
Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward.
Frontiers in Climate, 6.
1391634.
ISSN 2624-9553
doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634
2022
Messori, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Lee, S. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0986-0093 and Wendt, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1806-4507
(2022)
Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells.
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (4).
pp. 1215-1236.
ISSN 2698-4024
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022
Cohen, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7762-4482, Agel, L., Barlow, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7612-3811, Furtado, J. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6580-2109, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Wendt, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1806-4507
(2022)
The “polar vortex” winter of 2013/14.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (17).
e2022JD036493.
ISSN 2169-8996
doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036493
Karpechko, A. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0902-0414, Afargan‐Gerstman, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9169-2764, Butler, A. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3632-0925, Domeisen, D. I. V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1463-929X, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Lawrence, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0901-3839, Manzini, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9405-7838, Sigmond, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2191-9756, Simpson, I. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2915-1377 and Wu, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2054-5724
(2022)
Northern hemisphere stratosphere‐troposphere circulation change in CMIP6 models: 1. inter‐model spread and scenario sensitivity.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (18).
e2022JD036992.
ISSN 2169-8996
doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036992
Monnin, E., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Polichtchouk, I.
(2022)
The role of the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe.
International Journal of Climatology, 42 (6).
pp. 3448-3462.
ISSN 0899-8418
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7426
2021
Ludescher, J., Martin, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1443-0891, Boers, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-9034, Bunde, A., Ciemer, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4092-3761, Fan, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1954-4641, Havlin, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9974-5920, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Kurths, J., Runge, J., Stolbova, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5574-3827, Surovyatkina, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5136-4988 and Schellnhuber, H. J.
(2021)
Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118 (47).
e1922872118.
ISSN 0027-8424
doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922872118
Polkova, I., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D. I. V., King, M. P., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., Dobrynin, M., Aarnes, Ø., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Baehr, J.
(2021)
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (738).
pp. 2638-2656.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038
Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968
(2021)
Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (12).
E2247-E2263.
ISSN 1520-0477
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0117.1
2020
Pfleiderer, P., Schleussner, C.-F., Geiger, T. and Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526
(2020)
Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks.
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2).
pp. 313-324.
ISSN 2698-4024
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020
Lehmann, J., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Schauberger, B. and Wechsung, F.
(2020)
Potential for early forecast of Moroccan wheat yields based on climatic drivers.
Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (12).
e2020GL087516.
ISSN 0094-8276
doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087516
Matthias, V. and Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526
(2020)
The influence of stratospheric wave reflection on North American cold spells.
Monthly Weather Review, 148 (4).
pp. 1675-1690.
ISSN 0027-0644
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0339.1
Di Capua, G., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D.
(2020)
Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach.
Earth System Dynamics, 11 (1).
pp. 17-34.
ISSN 2190-4987
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020
Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338, de Wiljes, J., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Runge, J.
(2020)
Reconstructing regime-dependent causal relationships from observational time series.
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30 (11).
113115.
ISSN 1089-7682
doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0020538
Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968
(2020)
The role of Barents-Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes.
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2).
pp. 715-730.
ISSN 2698-4024
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020
2019
Cohen, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7762-4482, Zhang, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5893-2888, Francis, J., Jung, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2651-1293, Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8722-1927, Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8601-6024, Coumou, D., Feldstein, S., Gu, H., Handorf, D., Henderson, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-5658, Ionita, M., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Laliberte, F., Lee, S., Linderholm, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1522-8919, Maslowski, W., Peings, Y., Pfeiffer, K., Rigor, I., Semmler, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2254-4901, Stroeve, J., Taylor, P. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8098-8447, Vavrus, S., Vihma, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6557-7084, Wang, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2009-2275, Wendisch, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4652-5561, Wu, Y. and Yoon, J.
(2019)
Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather.
Nature Climate Change, 10 (1).
pp. 20-29.
ISSN 1758-678X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y
Runge, J., Nowack, P., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Flaxman, S. and Sejdinovic, D.
(2019)
Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets.
Science Advances, 5 (11).
eaau4996.
ISSN 2375-2548
doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4996
Di Capua, G., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Runge, J., Alessandri, A., Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D.
(2019)
Long-lead statistical forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on causal precursors.
Weather and Forecasting, 34 (5).
pp. 1377-1394.
ISSN 0882-8156
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0002.1
Runge, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0629-1772, Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Mahecha, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3031-613X, Muñoz-Marí, J., van Nes, E. H., Peters, J., Quax, R., Reichstein, M., Scheffer, M., Schölkopf, B., Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2553-1804, Zhang, K. and Zscheischler, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629
(2019)
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences.
Nature Communications, 10 (1).
2553.
ISSN 2041-1723
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3
2018
Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Cohen, J., Matthias, V., Runge, J. and Coumou, D.
(2018)
The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1 (1).
ISSN 2397-3722
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4
Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Coumou, D., Agel, L., Barlow, M., Tziperman, E. and Cohen, J.
(2018)
More-persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (1).
pp. 49-60.
ISSN 1520-0477
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1
2017
Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Runge, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0629-1772 and Coumou, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2155-8495
(2017)
Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors.
Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (16).
pp. 8592-8600.
ISSN 0094-8276
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074696
2016
Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Coumou, D., Donges, J. F. and Runge, J.
(2016)
Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation.
Journal of Climate, 29 (11).
pp. 4069-4081.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1
Last update: 20th December 2022
