2022

Messori, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Lee, S. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0986-0093 and Wendt, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1806-4507 (2022) Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (4). pp. 1215-1236. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

Cohen, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7762-4482, Agel, L., Barlow, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7612-3811, Furtado, J. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6580-2109, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Wendt, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1806-4507 (2022) The “polar vortex” winter of 2013/14. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (17). e2022JD036493. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036493

Karpechko, A. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0902-0414, Afargan‐Gerstman, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9169-2764, Butler, A. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3632-0925, Domeisen, D. I. V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1463-929X, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Lawrence, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0901-3839, Manzini, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9405-7838, Sigmond, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2191-9756, Simpson, I. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2915-1377 and Wu, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2054-5724 (2022) Northern hemisphere stratosphere‐troposphere circulation change in CMIP6 models: 1. inter‐model spread and scenario sensitivity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (18). e2022JD036992. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036992

Monnin, E., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Polichtchouk, I. (2022) The role of the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 42 (6). pp. 3448-3462. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7426

2021

Ludescher, J., Martin, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1443-0891, Boers, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-9034, Bunde, A., Ciemer, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4092-3761, Fan, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1954-4641, Havlin, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9974-5920, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Kurths, J., Runge, J., Stolbova, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5574-3827, Surovyatkina, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5136-4988 and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2021) Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118 (47). e1922872118. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922872118

Polkova, I., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D. I. V., King, M. P., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., Dobrynin, M., Aarnes, Ø., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Baehr, J. (2021) Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338 and Shepherd, T. G. (2021) Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (12). E2247-E2263. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0117.1

2020

Pfleiderer, P., Schleussner, C.-F., Geiger, T. and Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 (2020) Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2). pp. 313-324. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020

Lehmann, J., Kretschmer, M., Schauberger, B. and Wechsung, F. (2020) Potential for early forecast of Moroccan wheat yields based on climatic drivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (12). e2020GL087516. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087516

Matthias, V. and Kretschmer, M. (2020) The influence of stratospheric wave reflection on North American cold spells. Monthly Weather Review, 148 (4). pp. 1675-1690. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0339.1

Di Capua, G., Kretschmer, M., Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D. (2020) Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach. Earth System Dynamics, 11 (1). pp. 17-34. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020

Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338, de Wiljes, J., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Runge, J. (2020) Reconstructing regime-dependent causal relationships from observational time series. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30 (11). 113115. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0020538

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. (2020) The role of Barents-Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2). pp. 715-730. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020

2019

Cohen, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7762-4482, Zhang, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5893-2888, Francis, J., Jung, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2651-1293, Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8722-1927, Bhatt, U. S., Chen, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8601-6024, Coumou, D., Feldstein, S., Gu, H., Handorf, D., Henderson, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6835-5658, Ionita, M., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Laliberte, F., Lee, S., Linderholm, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1522-8919, Maslowski, W., Peings, Y., Pfeiffer, K., Rigor, I., Semmler, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2254-4901, Stroeve, J., Taylor, P. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8098-8447, Vavrus, S., Vihma, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6557-7084, Wang, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2009-2275, Wendisch, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4652-5561, Wu, Y. and Yoon, J. (2019) Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nature Climate Change, 10 (1). pp. 20-29. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y

Runge, J., Nowack, P., Kretschmer, M., Flaxman, S. and Sejdinovic, D. (2019) Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets. Science Advances, 5 (11). eaau4996. ISSN 2375-2548 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4996

Di Capua, G., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Runge, J., Alessandri, A., Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D. (2019) Long-lead statistical forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on causal precursors. Weather and Forecasting, 34 (5). pp. 1377-1394. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0002.1

Runge, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0629-1772, Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Mahecha, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3031-613X, Muñoz-Marí, J., van Nes, E. H., Peters, J., Quax, R., Reichstein, M., Scheffer, M., Schölkopf, B., Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2553-1804, Zhang, K. and Zscheischler, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-1629 (2019) Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences. Nature Communications, 10 (1). 2553. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3

2018

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Cohen, J., Matthias, V., Runge, J. and Coumou, D. (2018) The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1 (1). ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Coumou, D., Agel, L., Barlow, M., Tziperman, E. and Cohen, J. (2018) More-persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (1). pp. 49-60. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1

2017

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Runge, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0629-1772 and Coumou, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2155-8495 (2017) Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors. Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (16). pp. 8592-8600. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074696

2016

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Coumou, D., Donges, J. F. and Runge, J. (2016) Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation. Journal of Climate, 29 (11). pp. 4069-4081. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1