University of Reading

Grantham Professor of Climate Science

Group: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~dynamic/

Research Interests:

Climate variability and change
Atmospheric circulation
Risk and uncertainty
Physical Climate Storylines
Extreme event attribution
Theoretical geophysical fluid dynamics
Middle atmosphere dynamics

Research Projects:

Extreme Events: Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution (XAIDA, H2020)
HUrricane Risk Amplification and Changing North Atlantic Natural disasters (Huracán, NERC)
Attributable impacts from extreme weather events (NERC)

Postdoctoral & graduate student supervision

Meryl Chittethazhathu Anil is a PhD student working on the role of ozone in subseasonal predictability
Fiona Spuler is a PhD student working on improving seasonal forecasts using causal models of atmospheric teleconnections
Melissa Seabrook is a PhD student working on multidecadal atmospheric circulation trends and their links to extremes
Piyali Goswami is a PhD student working on subseasonal prediction of marine heat waves and associated compound events
Reuben Buss is a PhD student working on detection and attribution of non-stationarity in climate timeseries
Emmanuel Rouges is a PDRA working on drivers of wintertime energy shortfall events over Europe
Xiaocen Shen is a PDRA working on the state-dependence of teleconnections affecting wintertime cold extremes over Europe

Other interests

Bayesian statistics
Communication of climate science

Centaur Publications

Jump to: 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1987 | 1985 | 1983

Number of items: 296.

2024

Jézéquel, A., Bastos, A., Faranda, D., Kimutai, J., Le Grix, N., Wilson, A. M., Rufat, S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Stuart-Smith, R. F., Van Loon, A. F., Bevacqua, E., D'Andrea, F., Lehner, F., Lloyd, E. A., Moemken, J., Ramos, A. M., Sippel, S. and Zscheischler, J. (2024) Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution. Environmental Research: Climate, 3 (4). 042003. ISSN 2752-5295 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad7527

Shen, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7116-1397, Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2024) A forensic investigation of climate model biases in teleconnections: the case of the relationship between ENSO and the northern stratospheric polar vortex. Journal of Geophysical Research, 129 (19). e2024JD041252. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041252

Corning, S. N., Boere, E., Krasovskiy, A., Derci Augustynczik, A. L., Shepherd, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Ghosh, R., Kraxner, F. and Havlík, P. (2024) Flammable futures – storylines of climatic impacts on wildfire events and palm oil plantations in Indonesia. Environmental Research Letters, 19 (11). 114039. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7bcc

Coumou, D., Arias, P. A., Bastos, A., Gotangco Gonzales, C. K., Hegerl, G. C., Hope, P., Jack, C., Otto, F., Saeed, F., Serdeczny, O., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vautard, R. (2024) How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss & Damage? PNAS Nexus, 3 (8). pgae277. ISSN 2752-6542 doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277

Sippel, S., Barnes, C., Cadiou, C., Fischer, E., Kew, S., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Philip, S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Singh, J., Vautard, R. and Yiou, P. (2024) Could an extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5 (3). pp. 943-957. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Knight, J. (2024) Probabilistic causal network modelling of Southern Hemisphere jet sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability. Journal of Climate, 37 (10). pp. 3055-3071. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0425.1

Mindlin, J., Vera, C.S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Osman, M. and Terrado, M. (2024) Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: a storyline approach with a climate service perspective. Climate Services, 34. 100480. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480

Chan, W. C. H., Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Darch, G., Facer-Childs, K., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Tanguy, M. (2024) Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 24. pp. 1065-1078. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024

Weisheimer, A., Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Bröcker, J., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Palmer, T. N., Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Smith, D. N. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2024) The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (3). E651-E659. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1

Baldissera Pacchetti, M., Coulter, L., Dessai, S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Sillmann, J. and Van den Hurk, B. (2024) Varieties of approaches to constructing Physical Climate Storylines: a review. WIREs Climate Change, 15 (2). e869. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.869

Shaw, T. A., Arias, P. A., Collins, M., Coumou, D., Diedhiou, A., Garfinkel, C. I., Jain, S., Roxy, M. K., Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Leung, L. R., Narsey, S., Martius, O., Seager, R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Sörensson, A. A., Stephenson, T., Taylor, M. and Wang, L. (2024) Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward. Frontiers in Climate, 6. 1391634. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634

2023

Falkena, S. K. J., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2023) A Bayesian approach to atmospheric circulation regime assignment. Journal of Climate, 36. pp. 8619-8636. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0419.1

Mindlin, J., Vera, C. S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Osman, M. (2023) Plausible drying and wetting scenarios for summer in southeastern South America. Journal of Climate, 36 (22). pp. 7973-7991. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0134.1

Li, R., Xu, X., Xu, X., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Wang, Y. (2023) Importance of orographic gravity waves over the Tibetan plateau on the spring rainfall in East Asia. Science China Earth Sciences, 66 (11). pp. 2594-2602. ISSN 1869-1897 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1204-6

Chan, W. C.H., Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Darch, G., Facer-Childs, K., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Tanguy, M. and van der Wiel, K. (2023) Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology, 625. 130074. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074

Lloyd, E. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2023) Foundations of attribution in climate-change science. Environmental Research Climate, 2 (3). 034014. ISSN 2752-5295 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea1

Caviedes-Voullième, D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2023) Climate storylines as a way of bridging the gap between information and decision-making in hydrological risk. PLOS Climate, 2 (8). e0000270. ISSN 2767-3200 doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000270

Jain, S., Scaife, A. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Deser, C., Dunstone, N., Schmidt, G. A., Trenberth, K. E. and Turkington, T. (2023) Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6. 68. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0

van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Baldissera Pacchetti, M., Boere, E., Ciullo, A., Coulter, L., Dessai, S., Ercin, E., Goulart, H. M.D., Hamed, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Koks, E., Kubiczek, P., Levermann, A., Mechler, R., van Meersbergen, M., Mester, B., Middelanis, R., Minderhoud, K., Mysiak, J., Nirandjan, S., van den Oord, G., Otto, C., Sayers, P., Schewe, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Sillmann, J., Stuparu, D., Vogt, T. and Witpas, K. (2023) Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events. Climate Risk Management, 40. 100500. ISSN 2212-0963 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500

Brunet, G., Parsons, D. B., Ivanov, D., Lee, B., Bauer, P., Bernier, N. B., Bouchet, V., Brown, A., Busalacchi, A., Campbell Flatter, G., Goffer, R., Davies, P., Ebert, B., Gutbrod, K., Hong, S., Kenabatho, P. K., Koppert, H.-J., Lesolle, D., Lynch, A. H., Mahfouf, J.-F., Ogallo, L., Palmer, T., Petty, K., Schulze, D., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Stocker, T. F., Thorpe, A. and Yu, R. (2023) Advancing weather and climate forecasting for our changing world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104 (4). E909-E927. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0262.1

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Truong, C. H. (2023) Storylining climes. In: Smyer Yü, D. and Wouters, J. J. P. (eds.) Storying multipolar climes of the Himalaya, Andes and Arctic. Routledge, London, pp. 157-183. ISBN 9781032388267 doi: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003347026-12

Ghosh, R. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2023) Storylines of Maritime Continent dry period precipitation changes under global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (3). 034017. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb788

Kunimitsu, T., Baldissera Pacchetti, M., Ciullo, A., Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Taner, M. Ü. and van den Hurk, B. (2023) Representing storylines with causal networks to support decision making: framework and example. Climate Risk Management, 40. 100496. ISSN 2212-0963 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100496

Breul, P., Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2023) Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4 (1). pp. 39-47. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023

2022

Osman, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vera, C. S. (2022) The combined influence of the stratospheric polar vortex and ENSO on zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere upper tropospheric circulation during austral spring and summer. Climate Dynamics, 59 (9-10). pp. 2949-2964. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06225-0

Arribas, A., Fairgrieve, R., Dhu, T., Bell, J., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Gooley, G., Hilson, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4114-6471, Luers, A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Street, R. and Wood, N. (2022) Climate risk assessment needs urgent improvement. Nature Communications, 13. 4326. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31979-w

Chan, W. C. H., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Facer-Childs, K., Darch, G. and Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436 (2022) Tracking the methodological development of climate change projections for UK river flows. Progress in Physical Geography, 46 (4). pp. 589-612. ISSN 1477-0296 doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333221079201

Breul, P., Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2022) Relationship between Southern Hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3. pp. 645-658. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022

Chan, W. C. H., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Facer-Childs, K., Darch, G. and Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436 (2022) Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26 (7). pp. 1755-1777. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022

Monge-Sanz, B. M., Bozzo, A., Byrne, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Diamantakis, M., Flemming, J., Gray, L. J., Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157, Jones, L., Magnusson, L., Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Wedi, N. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22. pp. 4277-4302. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022

Rodrigues, R. R. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2022) Small is beautiful: climate-change science as if people mattered. PNAS Nexus, 1 (1). pgac009. ISSN 2752-6542 doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac009

Scaife, A. A., Baldwin, M. P., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C.I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Lim, E.-P., Noguchi, S., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L., Richter, J. H., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Son, S.-W. and Thompson, D. W. J. (2022) Long-range prediction and the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22. pp. 2601-2623. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

Pulkkinen, K., Undorf, S., Bender, F., Wikman-Svahn, P., Doblas-Reyes, F., Flynn, C., Hegerl, G. C., Jönsson, A., Leung, G.-K., Roussos, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Thompson, E. (2022) The value of values in climate science. Nature Climate Change, 12. pp. 4-6. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01238-9

Tamarin-Brodsky, T., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2022) A simple model for interpreting temperature variability and its higher-order changes. Journal of Climate, 35 (1). pp. 387-403. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0310.1

Falkena, S. K. J., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2022) Detection of interannual ensemble forecast signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using atmospheric circulation regimes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (742). pp. 434-453. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4213

Yessimbet, K., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Ossó, A. C. and Steiner, A. K. (2022) Pathways of influence between northern hemisphere blocking and stratospheric polar vortex variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (23). e2022GL100895. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100895

2021

Hinkel, J., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Todman, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-294X, Fairgreave, R., Plumpton, H., Shepherd, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Petty, C. and Acidri, J. (2021) Policy, governance and institutions for reducing and managing losses and damages - decision making under uncertainty. In: Buckle, S., Lamhauge, N., Rocha, M., Stadler, B. and Chhun, B. (eds.) Managing climate risks, facing up to losses and damages. OECD Publishing, Paris, pp. 185-238. ISBN 9789264344396 doi: https://doi.org/10.1787/55ea1cc9-en

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Lloyd, E. A. (2021) Meaningful climate science. Climatic Change, 169 (17). ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03246-2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science. Climatic Change, 169 (2). ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6

Leung, T. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0056-284X, Leutbecher, M., Reich, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Forecast verification: relating deterministic and probabilistic metrics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (739). pp. 3124-3134. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4120

Stephan, C. C., Zagar, N. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Waves and coherent flows in the tropical atmosphere: new opportunities, old challenges. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (738). pp. 2597-2624. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4109

Lloyd, E. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines. Climatic Change, 167. 28. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03177-y

Mindlin, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Vera, C. and Osman, M. (2021) Combined effects of global warming and ozone depletion/recovery on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and regional precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (12). e2021GL092568. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092568

Bevacqua, E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Watson, P. A. G., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. and Mitchell, D. (2021) Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (8). e2020GL091990. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091990

Zappa, G., Bevacqua, E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Communicating potentially large but non-robust changes in multi-model projections of future climate. International Journal of Climatology, 41 (6). pp. 3657-3669. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7041

Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., Butler, A. H., Thompson, D. W. J., Lawrence, Z. D., Scaife, A. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Polichtchouk, I., Nakamura, H., Kobayashi, C., Comer, R., Coy, L., Dowdy, A., Garreaud, R. D., Newman, P. A. and Wang, G. (2021) The 2019 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (6). pp. 1150-1171. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0112.1

Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, van den Hurk, B., Hazeleger, W., Martius, O., Slingo, J. and Zscheischler, J. (2021) Event-based storylines to address climate risk. Earth's Future, 9 (2). ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001783

Zappa, G., Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis. Nature Climate Change, 11. pp. 106-108. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00982-8

van Garderen, L., Feser, F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 21 (1). pp. 171-186. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (12). E2247-E2263. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0117.1

Young, H. R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Acidri, J., Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Petty, C., Seaman, J. and Todman, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-294X (2021) Storylines for decision-making: climate and food security in Namibia. Climate and Development, 13 (6). pp. 515-528. ISSN 1756-5537 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1808438

2020

Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (12). 124005. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbde7

Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Zappa, G., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Maraun, D., Mentaschi, L. and Feyen, L. (2020) More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change. Communications Earth & Environment, 1 (1). 47. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00044-z

Leung, T. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0056-284X, Leutbecher, M., Reich, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Impact of the mesoscale range on error growth and the limits to atmospheric predictability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 77 (11). pp. 3769-3779. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0346.1

Juanchich, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Sirota, M. (2020) Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention, decision-making and trust. Climatic Change, 162 (3). pp. 1677-1698. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02737-y

Falkena, S. K. J., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Revisiting the identification of wintertime atmospheric circulation regimes in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146. pp. 2801-2814. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3818

Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vrac, M. (2020) Brief communication: the role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 20. pp. 1765-1782. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020

Lloyd, E. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1469 (1). pp. 105-124. ISSN 1749-6632 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14308

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Sobel, A. H. (2020) Localness in climate change. Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, 40 (1). pp. 7-16. ISSN 1548-226X doi: https://doi.org/10.1215/1089201X-8185983

Mindlin, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Vera, C., Osman, M., Zappa, G., Lee, R. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1946-5559 and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2020) Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing. Climate Dynamics, 54 (9-10). pp. 4399-4421. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1

Zappa, G., Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Time-evolving sea surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117 (9). pp. 4539-4545. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911015117

Hartung, K., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Hoskins, B.J., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Svensson, G. (2020) Diagnosing topographic forcing in an atmospheric dataset: the case of the North American Cordillera. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 314-326. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3677

Boljka, L. and Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Multiscale extratropical barotropic variability on the subseasonal-to-seasonal timescale. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 301-313. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3676

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Barotropic aspects of large-scale atmospheric turbulence. In: Bouchet, F., Schneider, T., Venaille, A. and Salomon, C. (eds.) Fundamental Aspects of Turbulent Flows in Climate Dynamics. Lecture Notes of the Les Houches Summer School (109). Oxford University Press, pp. 183-222. ISBN 9780198855217 doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198855217.003.0004

Young, H. R., Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Todman, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-294X, Miret Barrio, J. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Petty, C., O'Sullivan, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4889-056X, Wagstaff, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9400-8641, Mason, O. and Talwisa, M., (2020) Assessing the impact of climate change on sweet potato in Uganda. Report. Walker Institute pp4. doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3836642

Tamarin-Brodsky, T., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Changes in northern hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns. Nature Geoscience, 13. pp. 414-421. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0576-3

Young, H., Plumpton, H., Miret Barrio, J. A., Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Petty, C., Todman, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-294X, O'Sullivan, D. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4889-056X, Wagstaff, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9400-8641, Mason, O., Shepherd, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Saabwe, C. and Talwisa, M., (2020) Sweet potato production in Uganda in a changing climate: what is the role for fertilisers. Working Paper. Walker Institute pp8. doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3955098

Kretschmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526, Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) The role of Barents-Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2). pp. 715-730. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020

2019

Leung, T. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0056-284X, Leutbecher, M., Reich, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) Atmospheric predictability: revisiting the inherent finite-time barrier. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 76 (12). pp. 3883-3892. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0057.1

Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) The role of the stratospheric polar vortex for the austral jet response to greenhouse gas forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (12). pp. 6972-6979. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082883

Sandu, I., van Niekerk, A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Vosper, S. B., Zadra, A., Bacmeister, J., Beljaars, A., Brown, A. R., Dörnbrack, A., McFarlane, N., Pithan, F. and Svensson, G. (2019) Impacts of orography on large-scale atmospheric circulation. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2. 10. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0065-9

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 475 (2225). 20190013. ISSN 1471-2946 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0013

Løhre, E., Juanchich, M., Sirota, M., Teigen, K. H. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) Climate scientists’ wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain. Weather, Climate and Society, 11 (3). pp. 565-575. ISSN 1948-8327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1

Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) Quantifying the timescale and strength of Southern Hemisphere intraseasonal stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (22). pp. 13479-13487. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084763

Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Polichtchouk, I. (2019) Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral spring and early summer. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124 (13). pp. 6841-6855. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030173

Tamarin-Brodsky, T., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) A dynamical perspective on atmospheric temperature variability and its response to climate change. Journal of Climate, 32 (6). pp. 1707-1724. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0462.1

2018

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L. and Zenghelis, D. A. (2018) Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, 151 (3-4). pp. 555-571. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9

Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Byrne, N. J. (2018) Impact of parametrized nonorographic gravity wave drag on stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the northern and southern hemispheres. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (16). pp. 8612-8618. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078981

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Polichtchouk, I., Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157 and Simmons, A. J., (2018) Report on Stratosphere Task Force. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 824. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, U.K.. pp32.

Boljka, L., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Blackburn, M. (2018) On the coupling between barotropic and baroclinic modes of extratropical atmospheric variability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (6). pp. 1853-1871. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0370.1

Boljka, L. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2018) A multiscale asymptotic theory of extratropical wave–mean flow interaction. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (6). pp. 1833-1852. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-17-0307.1

Byrne, N. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2018) Seasonal persistence of circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, and its implications for the troposphere. Journal of Climate, 31 (9). pp. 3467-3483. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0557.1

Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157 and Bechtold, P. (2018) Sensitivity of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and polar vortex variability to parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag in a high-resolution atmospheric model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (5). pp. 1525-1543. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-17-0304.1

Ceppi, P., Zappa, G., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 (2018) Fast and slow components of the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 31 (3). pp. 1091-1105. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0323.1

Zappa, G., Pithan, F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2018) Multimodel evidence for an atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (2). pp. 1011-1019. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076096

Karlsson, B. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2018) The improbable clouds at the edge of the atmosphere. Physics Today, 71 (6). pp. 30-60. ISSN 0031-9228 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.3946

2017

Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2017) Contributions of climate feedbacks to changes in atmospheric circulation. Journal of Climate, 30 (22). pp. 9097-9118. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0189.1

Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Woollings, T. and Plumb, R. A. (2017) Non-stationarity in Southern Hemisphere climate variability associated with the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex. Journal of Climate, 30 (18). pp. 7125-7139. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0097.1

Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2017) Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment. Journal of Climate, 30 (16). pp. 6561-6577. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1

van Niekerk, A., Scinocca, J. F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2017) The modulation of stationary waves, and their response to climate change, by parameterized orographic drag. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74 (8). pp. 2557-2574. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0085.1

Maraun, D., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Widmann, M., Zappa, G., Walton, D., Gutierrez, J. M., Hagemann, S., Richter, I., Soares, P. M. M., Hall, A. and Mearns, L. O. (2017) Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations. Nature Climate Change, 7. pp. 764-773. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3418

2016

Polichtchouk, I. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) Zonal-mean circulation response to reduced air-sea momentum roughness. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (700). pp. 2611-2622. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2850 (Part A)

Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) Effects of a warming Arctic. Science, 353 (6303). pp. 989-990. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2349

Pithan, F., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Zappa, G. and Sandu, I. (2016) Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13). pp. 7231-7240. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069551

van Niekerk, A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Vosper, S. B. and Webster, S. (2016) Sensitivity of resolved and parameterized surface drag to changes in resolution and parameterization. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (699). pp. 2300-2313. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2821

Simmons, A., Fellous, J.-L., Ramaswamy, V., Trenberth, K., Asrar, G., Balmaseda, M., Burrows, J. P., Ciais, P., Drinkwater, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gobron, N., Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625, Halpern, D., Heimann, M., Johannessen, J., Levelt, P. F., Lopez-Baeza, E., Penner, J., Scholes, R. and Shepherd, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) Observation and integrated Earth-system science: a roadmap for 2016–2025. Advances in Space Research, 57 (10). pp. 2037-2103. ISSN 0273-1177 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2016.03.008

Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Woollings, T. and Plumb, R. A. (2016) Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8). pp. 3897-3902. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068851

Sandu, I., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A., Bozzo, A., Pithan, F., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Zadra, A. (2016) Impacts of parameterized orographic drag on the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8 (1). pp. 196-211. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000564

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution. Current Climate Change Reports, 2. pp. 28-38. ISSN 2198-6061 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y

Overland, J. E., Dethloff, K., Francis, J. A., Hall, R. J., Hanna, E., Kim, S.-J., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vihma, T. (2016) Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic. Nature Climate Change, 6 (11). pp. 992-999. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3121

2015

Zappa, G., Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2015) The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (10). 104012. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104012

McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Jonsson, A. I., von Clarmann, T. and Funke, B. (2015) A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15. pp. 9271-9284. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015

Zappa, G., Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2015) Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation. Journal of Climate, 28 (16). pp. 6381-6397. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00823.1

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2015) The dynamics of temperature extremes. Nature, 522 (7557). pp. 425-427. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/522425a

Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2015) Attribution of climate extreme events. Nature Climate Change, 5 (8). pp. 725-730. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657

Bony, S., Stevens, B., Frierson, D. M. W., Jakob, C., Kageyama, M., Pincus, R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Sherwood, S. C., Siebesma, A. P., Sobel, A. H., Watanabe, M. and Webb, M. J. (2015) Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, 8 (4). pp. 261-268. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2398

Matthias, V., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Hoffmann, P. and Rapp, M. (2015) The Hiccup: a dynamical coupling process during the autumn transition in the Northern Hemisphere – similarities and differences to sudden stratospheric warmings. Annales Geophysicae, 33 (2). pp. 199-206. ISSN 0992-7689 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-199-2015

Burgess, B. H., Scott, R. K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2015) Kraichnan–Leith–Batchelor similarity theory and two-dimensional inverse cascades. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 767. pp. 467-496. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2015.26

Yamashita, Y., Akiyoshi, H., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Takahashi, M. (2015) The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 93 (6). pp. 629-644. ISSN 0026-1165 doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-054

2014

Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2014) Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nature Geoscience, 7. pp. 703-708. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253

Marshall, J., Armour, K. C., Scott, J. R., Kostov, Y., Hausmann, U., Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Bitz, C. M. (2014) The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 372 (2019). 20130040. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0040

Sigmond, M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2014) Compensation between resolved wave driving and parameterized orographic gravity wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change. Journal of Climate, 27 (14). pp. 5601-5610. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00644.1

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J. F., Hegglin, M. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044, Fioletov, V. E., Reader, M. C., Remsberg, E., von Clarmann, T. and Wang, H. J. (2014) Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone record. Nature Geoscience, 7 (6). pp. 443-449. ISSN 1752-0908 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2155

Anstey, J. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2014) High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 1-21. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2132

Chan, I. H. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2014) Diabatic balance model for the equatorial atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (3). pp. 985-1001. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0224.1

McLandress, C., Plummer, D. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2014) Technical note: a simple procedure for removing temporal discontinuities in ERA-Interim upper stratospheric temperatures for use in nudged chemistry-climate model simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14 (3). pp. 1547-1555. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014

Hegglin, M.I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044, Plummer, D.A., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Scinocca, J.F., Anderson, J., Froidevaux, L., Funke, B., Hurst, D., Rozanov, A., Urban, J., von Clarmann, T., Walker, K.A., Wang, H.J., Tegtmeier, S. and Weigel, K. (2014) Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data. Nature Geoscience, 7 (10). pp. 768-776. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2236

McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Reader, M. C., Plummer, D. A. and Shine, K. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978 (2014) The climate impact of past changes in halocarbons and CO2in the tropical UTLS region. Journal of Climate, 27 (23). pp. 8646-8660. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00232.1

2013

Reader, M. C., Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J. F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2013) Contributions to twentieth century total column ozone change from halocarbons, tropospheric ozone precursors, and climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (23). pp. 6276-6281. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057776

Birner, T., Thompson, D. W. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2013) Up-gradient eddy fluxes of potential vorticity near the subtropical jet. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (22). pp. 5988-5993. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057728

McLandress, C., Scinocca, J. F., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Reader, M. C. and Manney, G. L. (2013) Dynamical control of the mesosphere by orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70. pp. 2152-2169. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0297.1

Simpson, I. R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Hitchcock, P. and Scinocca, J. F. (2013) Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part II: Eddy feedbacks. Journal of Climate, 26 (14). pp. 5220-5241. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00495.1

Sigmond, M., Scinocca, J. F., Kharin, V. V. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2013) Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings. Nature Geoscience, 6 (2). pp. 98-102. ISSN 1752-0908 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1698

Chan, I. H. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2013) Balance model for equatorial long waves. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 725. pp. 55-90. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2013.146

Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Taguchi, M., Yoden, S. and Noguchi, S. (2013) Lower-stratospheric radiative damping and polar-night jet oscillation events. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (5). pp. 1391-1408. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0193.1

Simpson, I. R., Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Scinocca, J. F. (2013) Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM. Journal of Climate, 26 (11). pp. 3953-3967. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00348.1

Burgess, B. H. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2013) Spectral nonlocality, absolute equilibria and Kraichnan-Leith-Batchelor phenomenology in two-dimensional turbulent energy cascades. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 725. pp. 332-371. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2013.192

Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Manney, G. L. (2013) Statistical characterization of arctic polar-night jet oscillation events. Journal of Climate, 26 (6). pp. 2096-2116. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00202.1

Hitchcock, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2013) Zonal-mean dynamics of extended recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (2). pp. 688-707. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0111.1

Burgess, B. H., Erler, A. R. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2013) The troposphere-to-stratosphere transition in kinetic energy spectra and nonlinear spectral fluxes as seen in ECMWF analyses. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (2). pp. 669-687. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0129.1

2012

McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Polavarapu, S. and Beagley, S. R. (2012) Is missing orographic gravity wave drag near 60°S the cause of the stratospheric zonal wind biases in chemistry–climate models? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 69 (3). pp. 802-818. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0159.1

Pulido, M., Polavarapu, S., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Thuburn, J. (2012) Estimation of optimal gravity wave parameters for climate models using data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (663). pp. 298-309. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.932 (Part B)

Lossow, S., McLandress, C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2012) Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the polar mesopause region as simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 74. pp. 111-123. ISSN 1364-6826 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2011.10.010

Scaife, A. A., Spangehi, T., Cubasch, U., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Michou, M., Rozanov, E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2012) Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction. Climate Dynamics, 38 (9-10). pp. 2089-2097. ISSN 0930-7575

McLandress, C., Perlwitz, J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2012) Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12. pp. 2533-2540. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-2533-2012

Greenfield, J. A., Park, P. S., Farahani, E., Malik, S., Vieth, R., McFarlane, N. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Knight, J. A. (2012) Solar ultraviolet-B radiation and vitamin D: a cross-sectional population-based study using data from the 2007 to 2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey. BMC Public Health, 12 (660). ISSN 1471-2458 doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-660

2011

Simpson, I. R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Sigmond, M. (2011) Dynamics of the lower stratospheric circulation response to ENSO. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (11). pp. 2537-2556. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-05.1

Simpson, I. R., Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Scinocca, J. F. (2011) Stratospheric variability and tropospheric annular‐mode timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (20). L20806. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049304

Strahan, S.E., Douglass, A.R., Stolarski, R.S., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M.P., Cugnet, D., Dhomse, S., Frith, S.M., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S.C., Kinnison, D.E., Lamarque, J.-F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Olivié, D., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D.A., Pyle, J.A., Scinocca, J.F., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. (2011) Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 116 (D17). D17302. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015360

Karlsson, B., Randall, C. E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Harvey, V. L., Lumpe, J., Nielsen, K., Bailey, S. M., Hervig, M. and Russell, J. M. (2011) On the seasonal onset of polar mesospheric clouds and the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116. D18107. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015989

Butchart, N., Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Cionni, I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P. H., Krüger, K., Kushner, P. J., Newman, P. A., Osprey, S. M., Perlwitz, J., Sigmond, M., Wang, L., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Baumgaertner, A., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Garcia, R., Garny, H., Jöckel, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Plummer, D., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., Waugh, D. and Yamashita, Y. (2011) Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116. D05102. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014995

Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Lamarque, J.F., Randel, W.J., Stevenson, D.S., Wu, F., Bodeker, G.E., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shindell, D.T. and Waugh, D.W. (2011) Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 (21). pp. 11267-11292. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011

Bais, A. F., Tourpali, K., Kazantzidis, A., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Eyring, V., Garny, H., Jachetti, D., J¨ockel, P., Kubin, A., Langematz, U., Mancini, E., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Newman, P. A., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. (2011) Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 (15). pp. 7533-7545. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-7533-2011

McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Scinocca, J. F., Plummer, D. A., Sigmond, M., Jonsson, A. I. and Reader, M. C. (2011) Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere troposphere. Journal of Climate, 24 (6). pp. 1850-1868. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3958.1

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and McLandress, C. (2011) A robust mechanism for strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to climate change: critical-layer control of subtropical wave breaking. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (4). pp. 784-797. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3608.1

2010

Oman, L.D., Plummer, D.A., Waugh, D.W., Austin, J., Scinocca, J.F., Douglass, A.R., Salawitch, R.J., Canty, T., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M.P., Cugnet, D., Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Frith, S., Hardiman, S.C., Kinnison, D.E., Lamarque, J.-F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J.E., Olivié, D., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Stolarski, R.S., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., Yamashita, Y. and Ziemke, J.R. (2010) Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 115 (D24). D24306. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014362

Gettelman, A., Hegglin, M. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044, Son, S.-W., Kim, J., Fujiwara, M., Birner, T., Kremser, S., Rex, M., Añel, J. A., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Braesike, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Garny, H., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H. and Tian, W. (2010) Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: tropics and global trends. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D00M08. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013638

Tegtmeier, S., Fioletov, V. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2010) A global picture of the seasonal persistence of stratospheric ozone anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D18119. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013011

Austin, J., Struthers, H., Scinocca, J., Plummer, D. A., Akiyoshi, H., Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Bekki, S., Bodeker, G. E., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D., Kubin, A., Lamarque, J. F., Langematz, U., Mancini, E., Marchland, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D00M11. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013577

Butchart, N., Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cordero, E., Dameris, M., Deckery, R., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Kinnison, D. E., Li, F., Mancini, E., McLandress, C., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Sassi, F., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Steil, B. and Tian, W. (2010) Chemistry–climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes. Journal of Climate, 23 (20). pp. 5349-5374. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1

Austin, J., Scinocca, J., Plummer, D., Oman, L., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, D., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Frith, S., Garcia, R. R., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Kinnison, D., Larmarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Teyssèdre, H., Wilson, R. J. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D00M10. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857

Son, S.- W., Gerber, E. P., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L. M., Gillett, N. P., Seo, K.-H., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chippenfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S., Garny, H., Garcia, R., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 115 (D3). D00M07. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014271

Anstey, J. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Scinocca, J. F. (2010) Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the extratropical winter stratosphere in an atmospheric general circulation model and in reanalysis data. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 67 (5). pp. 1402-1419. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3292.1

Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Kinnison, D. E., Scinocca, J. F., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Kubin, A., Langematz, U., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Nakamura, T., Oman, L. D., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Tian, W., Braesicke, P., Hardiman, S. C., Lamarque, J. F., Morgenstern, O., Pyle, J. A., Smale, D. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (19). pp. 9451-9472. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010

Hegglin, M.I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044, Gettelman, A., Hoor, P., Krichevsky, R., Manney, G. L., Pan, L. L., Son, S.-W., Stiller, G., Tilmes, S., Walker, K. A., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Añel, J. A., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S., Garny, H., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Nakamura, T., Olivié, D., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 115 (D3). D00M09. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013884

Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Yoden, S. (2010) On the approximation of local and linear radiative damping in the middle atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 67 (6). pp. 2070-2085. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3286.1

Vyushin, D. I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Fioletov, V. E. (2010) On the statistical modeling of persistence in total ozone anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D16306. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013105

Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J. F., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Reader, M. C. and Jonsson, A. I. (2010) Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10. pp. 8803-8820. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-8803-2010

Morgenstern, O., Giorgetta, M. A., Shibata, K., Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Hegglin, M. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044, Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J. -F., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E., Olivié, D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Toohey, M., Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D00M02. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013728

Tegtmeier, S., Fioletov, V. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2010) Seasonal persistence of ozone and zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D18118. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013010

McLandress, C., Jonsson, A. I., Plummer, D. A., Reader, M. C., Scinocca, J. F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2010) Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. Journal of Climate, 23 (18). pp. 5002-5020. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3586.1

Gerber, E. P., Baldwin, M. P., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Firth, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Karpechko, A., Marchand, M., Morgenstern, O., Nielsen, E., Pawson, S., Peter, T., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Smale, D. (2010) Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry‐climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D00M06. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013770

Toohey, M., Strong, K., Bernath, P. F., Boone, D., Walker, K. A., Jonsson, A. I. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2010) Validating the reported random errors of ACE‐FTS measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D20304. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014185

Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Kinnison, D. E., Akiyoshi, H., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Lamarque, J. F., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Yamashita, Y., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Marchand, M., Mancini, E., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shibata, K., Shepherd, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Tian, W. and Waugh, D. W. (2010) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (19). pp. 9473-9486. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010

2009

Scinocca, J.F., Reader, M.C., Plummer, D.A., Sigmond, M., Kushner, P.J., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Ravishankara, A.R. (2009) Impact of sudden Arctic sea-ice loss on stratospheric polar ozone recovery. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (24). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041239

McLandress, C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2009) Impact of climate change on stratospheric sudden warmings as simulated by the Canadian middle atmosphere model. Journal of Climate, 22 (20). pp. 5449-5463. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3069.1

Hegglin, M. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2009) Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux. Nature Geoscience, 2 (10). pp. 687-691. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO604

Shaw, T. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2009) A theoretical framework for energy and momentum consistency in subgrid-scale parameterization for climate models. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66. pp. 3095-3114. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3051.1

Karlsson, B., McLandress, C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2009) Inter-hemispheric mesospheric coupling in a comprehensive middle atmosphere model. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 71 (3-4). pp. 518-530. ISSN 1364-6826 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.08.006

McLandress, C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2009) Simulated anthropogenic changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation, including its extension to high latitudes. Journal of Climate, 22 (6). pp. 1516-1540. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2679.1

Cagnazzo, C., Manzini, E., Calvo, N., Douglass, A., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Fischer, A.M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M.A., Plummer, D., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Stenke, A., Struthers, H. and Tian, W. (2009) Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9 (22). pp. 8935-8948. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8935-2009

Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and McLandress, C. (2009) Past and future conditions for polar stratospheric cloud formation simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9 (2). pp. 483-495. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-483-2009

Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Scinocca, J. F. (2009) Sensitivity of simulated climate to conservation of momentum in gravity wave drag parameterization. Journal of Climate, 22 (10). pp. 2726-2742. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2688.1

Jonsson, A. I., Fomichev, V. I. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2009) The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9 (21). pp. 8447-8452. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8447-2009

Neef, L. J., Polavarapu, S. M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2009) A low-order model investigation of the analysis of gravity waves in the ensemble Kalman filter. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66 (6). pp. 1717-1734. ISSN 0022-4928 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2585.1

2008

Anstey, J.A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2008) Response of the northern stratospheric polar vortex to the seasonal alignment of QBO phase transitions. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (22). L22810. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035721

Son, S.-W., Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Garcia, R., Kinnison, D., Pawson, S., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Shibata, K. (2008) The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet. Science, 320 (5882). pp. 1486-1489. ISSN 0036-8075 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155939

Fruman, M. D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2008) Symmetric stability of compressible zonal flows on a generalized equatorial β plane. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65 (6). pp. 1927-1940. ISSN 0022-4928 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2582.1

Melo, S. M. L., Blatherwick, R., Davies, J., Fogal, P., de Grandprè, J., McConnell, J., McElroy, C. T., McLandress, C., Murcray, F. J., Olson, J. R., Semeniuk, K., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Strong, K., Tarasick, D. and Williams-Rioux, B. J. (2008) Summertime stratospheric processes at northern mid-latitudes: comparisons between MANTRA balloon measurements and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 8 (7). pp. 2057-2071. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-2057-2008

Pendlebury, D., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Pritchard, M. and McLandress, C. (2008) Normal mode Rossby waves and their effects on chemical composition in the late summer stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 8 (7). pp. 1925-1935. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-1925-2008

Ren, S., Polavarapu, S. M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2008) Vertical propagation of information in a middle atmosphere data assimilation system by gravity-wave drag feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 35. L06804. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032699

Shaw, T.A. and Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2008) Raising the roof. Nature Geoscience, 1. pp. 12-13. ISSN 1752-0894

Shaw, T. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2008) Wave-activity conservation laws for the three-dimensional anelastic and Boussinesq equations with a horizontally homogeneous background flow. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 594. pp. 493-506. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112007009160

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2008) Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. Atmosphere-Ocean, 46 (1). pp. 117-138. ISSN 1480-9214 doi: https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.460106

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Jonsson, A. I. (2008) On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 8 (5). pp. 1435-1444. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-1435-2008

Tegtmeier, S., Fioletov, V. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2008) Seasonal persistence of northern low- and middle-latitude anomalies of ozone and other trace gases in the upper stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113. D21308. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009860

Hegglin, M. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044, Boone, C.D., Manney, G.L., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Walker, K.A., Bernath, P.F., Daffer, W.H., Hoor, P. and Schiller, C. (2008) Validation of ACE-FTS satellite data in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) using non-coincident measurements. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 8 (6). pp. 1483-1499. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-1483-2008

2007

Baldwin, M.P., Dameris, M. and Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2007) How will the stratosphere affect climate change? Science, 316. pp. 1576-1577. ISSN 0036-8075 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144303

Shaw, T. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2007) Angular momentum conservation and gravity wave drag parameterization: implications for climate models. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64 (1). pp. 190-203. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3823.1

Vyushin, D. I., Fioletov, V. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2007) Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112. D14307. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008168

Farahani, F., Fast, H., Mittermeier, R. L., Makino, Y., Strong, K., McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Chipperfield, M. P., Hannigan, J. W., Coffey, M., Mikuteit, S., Hase, F., Blumenstock, T. and Raffalski, U. (2007) Lunar and solar FTIR nitric acid measurements at Eureka in winter 2001/2002: comparisons with observations at Thule and Kiruna and with CMAM and SLIMCAT model calculations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112. D01305. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007096

Sica, R. J., Argall, P. S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Koshyk, J. N. (2007) Model-measurement comparison of mesospheric temperature inversions, and a simple theory for their occurrence. Geophysical Research Letters, 34. L23806. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030627

Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W., Bodeker, G. E., Cordero, E., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Beagley, S. R., Boville, B. A., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Deckert, R., Deushi, M., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giongetta, M. A., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marsh, D. R., Matthes, S., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A., Nielsen, J. F., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Scinocca, J. F., Semeniuk, K., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Steil, B., Stolarski, R. S., Tian, W. and Yoshiki, M. (2007) Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112. D16303. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008332

Hegglin, M. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2820-9044 and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2007) O_3-N_2O correlations from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment: revisiting a diagnostic of transport and chemistry in the stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112. D19301. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008281

Tegtmeier, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2007) Persistence and photochemical decay of springtime total ozone anomalies in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 7. pp. 485-493. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-485-2007

Fomichev, V. I., Jonsson, A. I., De Grandpré, J., Beagley, S. R., McLandress, C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2007) Response of the middle atmosphere to CO2 doubling: results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Journal of Climate, 20 (7). pp. 1121-1144. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4030.1

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2007) Transport in the middle atmosphere. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 85B. pp. 165-191. ISSN 0026-1165

2006

Tomikawa, Y., Sato, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) A diagnostic study of waves on the tropopause. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63 (12). pp. 3315-3332. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3800.1

Eyring, V., Butchart, N., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Bodeker, G. E., Boville, B. A., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cordero, E., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Fioletov, V. E., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Grewe, V., Jourdain, L., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Struthers, H., Tian, W. and Yoshiki, M. (2006) Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111 (D22). ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007327

Neef, L. J., Polavarapu, S. M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) Four-dimensional data assimilation and balanced dynamics. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63 (7). pp. 1840-1858. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3714.1

McLandress, C., Ward, W. E., Fomichev, V. I., Semeniuk, K., Beagley, S. R., McFarlane, N. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) Large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: an analysis using the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111 (D17). ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006776

Codoban, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) On the available energy of an axisymmetric vortex. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15 (4). pp. 401-407. ISSN 0941-2948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0143

Thompson, D. W. J., Furtado, J. C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) On the tropospheric response to anomalous stratospheric wave drag and radiative heating. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63 (10). pp. 2616-2629. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3771.1

Iwayama, T. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) Self-similarity of vorticity dynamics in decaying two-dimensional turbulence. In: Kida, S. (ed.) IUTAM Symposium on elementary vortices and coherent structures: significance in turbulence dynamics. Fluid mechanics and its applications (79). Springer, pp. 177-182. ISBN 9781402041808 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4181-0_19

Birner, T., Sankey, D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) The tropopause inversion layer in models and analyses. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (14). L14804. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026549

Saujani, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2006) A unified theory of balance in the extratropics. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 569. pp. 447-464. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112006002783

2005

Lukovich, J. V. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2005) Stirring and mixing in two-dimensional divergent flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62 (11). pp. 3933-3954. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3580.1

Eyring, V., Harris, N. R. P., Rex, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Fahey, D. W., Amanatidis, G. T., Austin, J., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Forster, P. M. D. F., Gettelman, A., Graf, H. F., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A., Pawson, S., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Salawitch, R. J., Santer, B. D. and Waugh, D. W. (2005) A strategy for process-oriented validation of coupled chemistry–climate models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86 (8). pp. 1117-1133. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-8-1117

Wunch, D., Tingley, M. P., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Drummond, J. R., Moore, G. W. K. and Strong, K. (2005) Climatology and predictability of the late summer stratospheric zonal wind turnaround over Vanscoy, Saskatchewan. Atmosphere-Ocean, 43 (4). pp. 301-313. ISSN 1480-9214 doi: https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.430402

Campbell, L. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2005) Constraints on wave drag parameterization schemes for simulating the quasi-biennial oscillation. Part I: gravity wave forcing. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62 (12). pp. 4178-4195. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3616.1

Campbell, L. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2005) Constraints on wave drag parameterization schemes for simulating the quasi-biennial oscillation. Part II: combined effects of gravity waves and equatorial planetary waves. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62 (12). pp. 4196-4205. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3617.1

Pyle, J., Shepherd, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Bodeker, G., Canziani, P., Dameris, M., Forster, P., Gruzdev, A., Müller, R., Muthama, N. J., Pitari, G., Randel, W., Fioletov, V., Grooß, J.-U., Montzka, S., Newman, P., Thomason, L. and Velders, G. (2005) Ozone and climate: a review of interconnections. In: McFarland, M. (ed.) IPCC/TEAP Special Report: Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System. Cambridge University Press, pp. 85-132. ISBN 9780521682060

Polavarapu, S., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Rochon, Y. and Ren, S. (2005) Some challenges of middle atmosphere data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131 (613). pp. 3513-3527. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.87

Fioletov, V. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2005) Summertime total ozone variations over middle and polar latitudes. Geophysical Research Letters, 32 (4). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022080

2004

Tran, C. V., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Cho, H.-R. (2004) Extensivity of two-dimensional turbulence. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192 (3-4). pp. 187-195. ISSN 0167-2789 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2004.01.002

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Shaw, T. A. (2004) The angular momentum constraint on climate sensitivity and downward influence in the middle atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 61 (23). pp. 2899-2908. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-3295.1

2003

Sankey, D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Correlations of long-lived chemical species in a middle atmosphere general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D16). 4494. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002799

Codoban, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Energetics of a symmetric circulation including momentum constraints. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60 (16). pp. 2019-2028. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2019:EOASCI>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Hamiltonian geophysical fluid dynamics. In: Holton, J. R., Curry, J. A. and Pyle, J. A. (eds.) Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, pp. 929-938. ISBN 9780122270901 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-227090-8/00008-7

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Large-scale atmospheric dynamics for atmospheric chemists. Chemical Reviews, 103 (12). pp. 4509-4532. ISSN 1520-6890 doi: https://doi.org/10.1021/cr020511z

Pendlebury, D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Planetary-wave-induced transport in the stratosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60 (11). pp. 1456-1470. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<1456:PTITS>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Ripa’s Theorem and its relatives. In: Velasco Fuentes, O. U., Sheinbaum, J. and Ochoa, J. (eds.) Nonlinear processes in geophysical fluid dynamics: a tribute to the scientific work of Pedro Ripa. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, pp. 1-14. ISBN 9789401039963 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0074-1_1

Fioletov, V. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Seasonal persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (7). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016739

Austin, J., Shindell, D., Beagley, S. R., Brühl, C., Dameris, M., Manzini, E., Nagashima, T., Newman, P., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Rozanov, E., Schnadt, C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2003) Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3 (1). pp. 1-27. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-3-1-2003

2002

Saujani, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2002) Comments on 'Balance and the slow quasimanifold: some explicit results'. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59 (19). pp. 2874-2877. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<2874:COBATS>2.0.CO;2

Tran, C. V. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2002) Constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy dissipation in forced two-dimensional turbulence. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 165 (3-4). pp. 199-212. ISSN 0167-2789 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(02)00391-3

Fomichev, V. I., Ward, W. E., Beagley, S. R., McLandress, C., McConnell, J. C., McFarlane, N. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2002) Extended Canadian middle atmosphere model: zonal-mean climatology and physical parameterizations. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 107 (D10). 4087. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000479

Wirosoetisno, D., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Temam, R. M. (2002) Free gravity waves and balanced dynamics. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59. pp. 3382-3398. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<3382:FGWABD>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2002) Issues in stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 80 (4B). pp. 769-792. ISSN 2186-9057 doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.769

Iwayama, T., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Watanabe, T. (2002) Self-similarity of decaying two-dimensional turbulence governed by the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima equation. In: Kaneda, Y. and Gotoh, T. (eds.) Statistical Theories and Computational Approaches to Turbulence: Modern Perspectives and Application to Global-Scale Flows. Springer-Verlag, pp. 341-349. ISBN 4431703357

Tran, C. V., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Cho, H.-R. (2002) Stability of stationary solutions of the forced Navier-Stokes equations on the two-torus. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems: Series B, 2 (4). pp. 483-494. ISSN 1531-3492 doi: https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdsb.2002.2.483

Semeniuk, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2002) The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128 (579). pp. 259-284. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/00359000260498888

Iwayama, T., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Watanabe, T. (2002) An ‘ideal’ form of decaying two-dimensional turbulence. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 456. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112001007509

2001

Iwayama, T., Watanabe, T. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2001) Infrared dynamics of decaying two-dimensional turbulence governed by the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima equation. Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, 70 (2). pp. 376-386. ISSN 1347-4073 doi: https://doi.org/10.1143/JPSJ.70.376

Semeniuk, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2001) Mechanisms for tropical upwelling in the stratosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58 (21). pp. 3097-3115. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3097:MFTUIT>2.0.CO;2

Semeniuk, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2001) The middle-atmosphere Hadley circulation and equatorial inertial adjustment. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58 (21). pp. 3077-3096. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3077:TMAHCA>2.0.CO;2

2000

Wirosoetisno, D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2000) Averaging, slaving and balance dynamics in a simple atmospheric model. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 141 (1-2). pp. 37-53. ISSN 0167-2789 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(00)00022-1

Pawson, S., Kodera, K., Hamilton, K., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Beagley, S. R., Boville, B. A., Farrara, J. D., Fairlie, T. D. A., Kitoh, A., Lahoz, W. A., Langematz, U., Manzini, E., Rind, D. H., Scaife, A. A., Shibata, K., Simon, P., Swinbank, R., Takacs, L., Wilson, R. J., Al-Saadi, J. A., Amodei, M., Chiba, M., Coy, L., de Grandpré, J., Eckman, R. S., Fiorino, M., Grose, W. L., Koide, H., Koshyk, J. N., Li, D., Lerner, J., Mahlman, J. D., McFarlane, N. A., Mechoso, C. R., Molod, A., O'Neill, A., Pierce, R. B., Randel, W. J., Rood, R. B. and Wu, F. (2000) The GCM–Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS): scientific issues and initial results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81 (4). pp. 781-796. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0781:TGIPFS>2.3.CO;2

Wirosoetisno, D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2000) On the existence of two-dimensional Euler flows satisfying energy-Casimir stability criteria. Physics of Fluids, 12 (3). pp. 727-731. ISSN 1070-6631 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.870280

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Koshyk, J. N. and Ngan, K. (2000) On the nature of large-scale mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105 (D10). pp. 12433-12446. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900133

de Grandpré, J., Beagley, S. R., Fomichev, V. I., Griffioen, E., McConnell, J. C., Medvedev, A. S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2000) Ozone climatology using interactive chemistry: results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105 (D21). pp. 26475-26491. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900427

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2000) The middle atmosphere. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 62 (17-18). pp. 1587-1601. ISSN 1364-6826 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(00)00114-0

1999

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1999) The stratosphere and climate. CMOS Bulletin SCMO, 27 (6). pp. 174-179.

Ravishankara, A.R. and Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, (1999) Lower stratospheric processes. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project. 44. Technical Report. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. ISBN 9280717227

Wirosoetisno, D. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1999) Nonlinear stability of Euler flows in two-dimensional periodic domains. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 90 (3-4). pp. 229-246. ISSN 0309-1929 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03091929908204120

Vanneste, J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1999) On wave action and phase in the non-canonical Hamiltonian formulation. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 455 (1981). pp. 3-21. ISSN 1364-5021 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1999.0301

Ngan, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1999) A closer look at chaotic advection in the stratosphere: part I: geometric structure. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56 (24). pp. 4134-4152. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<4134:ACLACA>2.0.CO;2

Ngan, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1999) A closer look at chaotic advection in the stratosphere: part II: statistical diagnostics. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56 (24). pp. 4153-4166. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<4153:ACLACA>2.0.CO;2

1998

Kushner, P. J., McIntyre, M. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1998) Coupled Kelvin-wave and mirage-wave instabilities in semigeostrophic dynamics. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 28 (3). pp. 513-518. ISSN 0022-3670 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1998)028<0513:CKWAMW>2.0.CO;2

Vanneste, J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1998) On the group-velocity property for wave-activity conservation laws. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 55 (6). pp. 1063-1068. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<1063:OTGVPF>2.0.CO;2

1997

Ngan, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1997) Chaotic mixing and transport in Rossby-wave critical layers. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 334. pp. 315-351. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112096004363

Ngan, K. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1997) Comments on some recent measurements of anomalously steep N2O and O3tracer spectra in the stratospheric surf zone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102 (D20). pp. 24001-24004. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01767

Nore, C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1997) A Hamiltonian weak-wave model for shallow-water flow. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 453 (1958). pp. 563-580. ISSN 1364-5021 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1997.0031

Ren, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1997) Lateral boundary contributions to wave-activity invariants and nonlinear stability theorems for balanced dynamics. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 345. pp. 287-305. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112097006216

Beagley, S. R., de Grandpré, J., Koshyk, J. N., McFarlane, N. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1997) Radiative-dynamical climatology of the first-generation Canadian middle atmosphere model. Atmosphere-Ocean, 35 (3). pp. 293-331. ISSN 1480-9214 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1997.9649595

1996

Yongming, L., Mu, M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1996) Nonlinear stability of continuously stratified quasi-geostrophic flow. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 325. pp. 419-439. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S002211209600818X

Bokhove, O. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1996) On Hamiltonian balanced dynamics and the slowest invariant manifold. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 53 (2). pp. 276-297. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<0276:OHBDAT>2.0.CO;2

Mu, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Swanson, K. (1996) On nonlinear symmetric stability and the nonlinear saturation of symmetric instability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 53 (20). pp. 2918-2923. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<2918:ONSSAT>2.0.CO;2

Haynes, P. H., McIntyre, M. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1996) Reply. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 53 (14). pp. 2105-2107. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<2105:R>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Semeniuk, K. and Koshyk, J. N. (1996) Sponge layer feedbacks in middle-atmosphere models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101 (D18). pp. 23447-23464. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD01994

1995

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1995) The Canadian MAM Project. CMOS Bulletin, 23. pp. 3-12.

Bowman, J. C. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1995) Nonlinear symmetric stability of planetary atmospheres. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 296. pp. 391-407. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112095002175

Warn, T., Bokhove, O., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vallis, G. K. (1995) Rossby number expansions, slaving principles, and balance dynamics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 121 (523). pp. 723-739. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712152313

Kushner, P. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1995) Wave-activity conservation laws and stability theorems for semi-geostrophic dynamics: part 1. pseudomomentum-based theory. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 290. pp. 67-104. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112095002424

Kushner, P. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1995) Wave-activity conservation laws and stability theorems for semi-geostrophic dynamics: part 2. pseudoenergy-based theory. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 290. pp. 105-129. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112095002436

1994

Mu, M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1994) Nonlinear stability of Eady's model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 51 (23). pp. 3427-3436. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<3427:NSOEM>2.0.CO;2

Mu, M., Qingcun, Z., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Yongming, L. (1994) Nonlinear stability of multilayer quasi-geostrophic flow. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 264. pp. 165-184. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112094000625

Mu, M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1994) On Arnol'd's second nonlinear stability theorem for two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic flow. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 75 (1). pp. 21-37. ISSN 0309-1929 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03091929408203645

Douglas, S. C., Harrison, D. M. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1994) The physical pendulum in an advanced undergraduate course in mechanics. Computers in Physics, 8 (4). pp. 416-419. ISSN 0894-1866

1993

Cho, H.-R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vladimirov, V. A. (1993) Application of the direct Liapunov method to the problem of symmetric stability in the atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 50 (6). pp. 822-836. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<0822:AOTDLM>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1993) Nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability: part III: bounds on the energy. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 50 (16). pp. 2697-2709. ISSN 0022-4928 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2697:NSOBIP>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1993) A unified theory of available potential energy. Atmosphere-Ocean, 31 (1). pp. 1-26. ISSN 1480-9214 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1993.9649460

1992

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1992) Arnol'd stability applied to fluid flow: success and failures. In: Carnevale, G. F. and Pierrehumbert, R. T. (eds.) Nonlinear phenomena in atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 187-206. ISBN 0387978186

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1992) Extremal properties and Hamiltonian structure of the Euler equations. In: Moffat, H. K. (ed.) Topological Aspects of the Dynamics of Fluids and Plasmas. Kluwer Academic, pp. 275-292. ISBN 0792319001

Scinocca, J. F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1992) Nonlinear wave-activity conservation laws and Hamiltonian structure for the two-dimensional anelastic equations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 49 (1). pp. 5-28. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<0005:NWACLA>2.0.CO;2

1991

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1991) Nonlinear stability and the saturation of instabilities to axisymmetric vortices. European Journal of Mechanics & Fluids B: Fluids, 10 (2). pp. 93-98. ISSN 0997-7546

Haynes, P. H., McIntyre, M. E., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Marks, C. J. and Shine, K. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978 (1991) On the 'downward control' of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 48 (4). pp. 651-678. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0651:OTCOED>2.0.CO;2

Dritschel, D. G., Haynes, P. H., Juckes, M. N. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1991) The stability of a two-dimensional vorticity filament under uniform strain. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 230 (1). pp. 647-665. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112091000915

1990

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1990) Isovortical constraints on the statistical-dynamical behaviour of strongly nonlinear two-dimensional and quasi-geostrophic flow. In: Moffatt, H. K. and Tsinober, A. (eds.) Topological fluid mechanics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 278-287. ISBN 0521381452

Carnevale, G. F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1990) On the interpretation of Andrews’ theorem. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 51 (1-4). pp. 1-17. ISSN 1029-0419 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03091929008219847

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1990) Symmetries, conservation laws, and Hamiltonian structure in geophysical fluid dynamics. In: Dmowska, R. (ed.) Advances in Geophysics. Elsevier, pp. 287-338. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60429-X

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1990) A general method for finding extremal states of Hamiltonian dynamical systems, with applications to perfect fluids. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 213 (1). pp. 573-587. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112090002452

1989

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1989) Nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability: part II: continuously stratified fluid. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 46 (7). pp. 888-907. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<0888:NSOBIP>2.0.CO;2

Haynes, P. H. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1989) The importance of surface pressure changes in the response of the atmosphere to zonally-symmetric thermal and mechanical forcing. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 115 (490). pp. 1181-1208. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711549002

1988

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1988) Nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability: part I: the two-layer model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 45 (14). pp. 2014-2025. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<2014:NSOBIP>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1988) On Rossby waves modified by weak sinusoidal shear. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 40 (3-4). pp. 225-237. ISSN 1029-0419 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03091928808208826

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1988) Remarks concerning the double cascade as a necessary mechanism for the instability of steady equivalent-barotropic flows. Il Nuovo Cimento C, 11 (4). pp. 439-442. ISSN 0390-5551 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02533136

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1988) Rigorous bounds on the nonlinear saturation of instabilities to parallel shear flows. Journal Of Fluid Mechanics, 196. pp. 291-322. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S002211208800271X

1987

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1987) Inhomogeneous two-dimensional turbulence in the atmosphere. In: Comte-Bellot, G. and Mathieu, J. (eds.) Advances in turbulence. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 269-278. ISBN 978-3-642-83047-1 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83045-7_31

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1987) Non-ergodicity of inviscid two-dimensional flow on a beta-plane and on the surface of a rotating sphere. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 184 (1). pp. 289-302. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112087002891

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1987) Rossby waves and two-dimensional turbulence in a large-scale zonal jet. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 183 (1). pp. 467-509. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112087002738

Mcintyre, M. E. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1987) An exact local conservation theorem for finite-amplitude disturbances to non-parallel shear flows, with remarks on Hamiltonian structure and on Arnol'd's stability theorems. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 181 (1). p. 527. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112087002209

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1987) A spectral view of nonlinear fluxes and stationary-transient interaction in the atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 44 (8). pp. 1166-1179. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<1166:ASVONF>2.0.CO;2

1985

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1985) Time development of small disturbances to plane Couette Flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 42 (17). pp. 1868-1872. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<1868:TDOSDT>2.0.CO;2

1983

Boer, G. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1983) Large-scale two-dimensional turbulence in the atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 40 (1). pp. 164-184. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<0164:LSTDTI>2.0.CO;2

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (1983) Mean motions induced by baroclinic instability in a jet. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 27 (1-2). pp. 35-72. ISSN 1029-0419 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03091928308210120

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Last update: 2nd November 2024

Department of Meteorology – University of Reading

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