Workshop “EXtremes and Rare Events in Climate and related applications” (ExREC)

15-16 June 2026
Reading

Extreme climatic events such as heat waves, droughts, and flooding are expected to change drastically in the future as anthropogenic influences continue. Even more impactful are so-called tipping points: abrupt, large scale, and difficult to reverse transitions. Suspected climate tipping elements include the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre and the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

While there is some understanding of the dynamics and statistics leading to climatic extremes and rare events, large uncertainties still remain. The rareness of these events makes both statistical inference and numerical modelling very challenging. The observational record is often too short compared to return times of interest and many of the events require high resolution models to fully resolve the complex turbulent processes involved, making simulation costly and energy-consuming. To maximise scientific progress, while limiting the sustainability impact of computation, it is essential to make the most efficient use of both data and numerical models to reduce uncertainties.

The overarching goals of this meeting are therefore to

  1. identify extreme events and tipping elements in climate science where mathematical methods, including advanced Monte Carlo methods can create significant advantages, and
  2. to identify mathematical breakthroughs and open challenges that could advance the applicability of numerical sampling methods (e.g. variance estimators).

We are inviting mathematicians and statisticians with an interest in Monte Carlo methods, statistical and machine learning modeling, as well as climate scientist with an interest in extreme and rare events, such as heat waves, droughts, flooding, and tipping elements. We are also reaching out to experts in closely related fields, such as extreme value theory, dynamical systems theory, stochastic analysis and large deviation theory.

The workshop will be hosted at the University of Reading on 15 and 16 June 2026.

Register here

Registration is free but required. The deadline for registration is 15 May 2026.

This event is funded by the Centre for Mathematics of Planet Earth and through an Interdisciplinary Collaboration Grant of the London Mathematical Society.

Confirmed speakers

Organizers