The CMPE is currently involved in several ongoing research projects in the broad area of Mathematics of Planet Earth.
EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training – Mathematics for our Future Climate
Our new Centre for Doctoral Training, joint between University of Reading, Imperial College London and the University of Southampton provides cohort-based and interdisciplinary PhD to harness the power of mathematics to address the issues presented by climate change.
ClimTip (Horizon Europe)
Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impact. The likelihood of large-scale Earth system tipping events under ongoing anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. In view of the possible irreversibility associated with such events and the potentially catastrophic global consequences on climate, ecosystems, and society, the precautionary principle demands thorough investigation of the underlying mechanisms, compound or cascading impacts, and associated risks. ClimTip will substantially advance the process understanding of possible Earth system Tipping Elements (TEs).
AUSPICE (NERC Highlight Topic)
In climate forecasting, counterintuitive situations are reported where the real world appears to be more predictable than the forecast model suggests. A typical situation is when mid-latitude atmospheric signals and associated climate impacts are predictable but significantly underestimated in their strength relative to observations. Weak signals are however difficult to detect which poses a challenge. Dynamical and physical mechanisms, such as teleconnections, atmospheric feedbacks, and complex ocean-atmosphere interactions are expected to be very relevant in the signal-to-noise problem.
The project AUSPICE (Advancing Understanding of the Signal-to-noise Paradox and its Impacts on Climate Ensembles) aims to analyse the Signal-to-noise paradox by combining physical experimentation and reasoning using causal networks and robust statistical methods. Causal networks will be used to calibrate climate predictions and projections, leading to self-consistent, physically grounded climate storylines. A result will be tighter constraints for future climate projections.
Bridging the Gap (World Meteorological Organisation)
When applying traditional pointwise verification methods to spatial weather fields, forecasts that are nearly correct but slightly displaced in space can be unfairly penalized, counting both a missed event and a false alarm for the same feature. This phenomenon is known as the double penalty effect. In a separate line of research, and motivated by theoretical decision-making, consistent/proper scores have been developed as improved verification methods resilient to hedging. Despite of the common interest behind these two approaches, the explicit links between these apparently diverging approaches have not been fully explored. The spatial verification tools community has primarily focused on developing interpretable methods resilient to the double penalty effect, often at the expense of theoretical guarantees. In contrast, the consistent/proper scores community has emphasized ensuring theoretical properties, sometimes overlooking interpretability.
This research project will address the following questions. What are the links between the two approaches and how can we combine them to improve spatial verification? How to properly extend spatial verification methods to ensemble forecasts? Does the double penalty effect apply to ensemble forecasts? Does the verification of AI-based forecasts require new methods? What are desirable properties of spatial verification methods for ensemble forecasts and how to check them?
Past projects
EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training – Mathematics of Planet Earth
Imperial College London and the University of Reading have joined forces to create the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training (CDT) in the Mathematics of Planet Earth (MPE). The Centre provides cohort-based PhD training in the mathematical and computational techniques needed to understand, predict and quantify risk and uncertainty for extreme weather and climate change. Training ranges from the data-driven domain represented by statistics, to the model-driven domain represented by analysis and mechanics.
Horizon 2020 Projects
Horizon 2020 is the biggest EU research and innovation programme ever and was established to ensure Europe produces world-class science and technology, removes barriers to innovation and makes it easier for the public and private sectors to work together in delivering solutions to big challenges facing our society.
TiPES
TiPES (Tipping Points in the Earth System) is a Horizon 2020 funded project that runs from September 2019 for 4 years. The main object is to better quantify the tipping elements that are present in the climate system and to ensure that climate projections also include these. TiPES is a large scientific collaboration with 18 partner institutions working together in more than 10 countries. Please find here the link to the webinars of the Horizon 2020 TiPES project.
CRESCENDO
The CRESCENDO project facilitates a coordinated European contribution to the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) where the climate research community compares a range of International Earth System Models using common sets of experimental protocols, to improve our knowledge of the Earth’s climate processes and provide the best possible future projections to governments and decision-makers. The project comprises 25 partners, 10 European countries, 7 European Earth System Models (ESMS), 3 European Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) and more than 100 scientists.
Blue-Action
Blue-Action is a major European research project investigating the effect of a changing Arctic on weather and climate. It involves over 120 experts from 40 organisations in 17 countries. Through a combination of empirical scientific research, advanced statistical techniques and enhanced climate modelling, it aims to improve understanding of the impact of Arctic warming on regional and global atmospheric and oceanic circulation.