Workshop “EXtremes and Rare Events in Climate and related applications” (ExREC)

15-16 June 2026
Reading, UK

Extreme climatic events such as heat waves, droughts, and flooding are expected to change drastically in the future as anthropogenic influences continue. Even more impactful are so-called tipping points: abrupt, large scale, and difficult to reverse transitions. Suspected climate tipping elements include the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre and the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

While there is some understanding of the dynamics and statistics leading to climatic extremes and rare events, large uncertainties still remain. The rareness of these events makes both statistical inference and numerical modelling very challenging. The observational record is often too short compared to return times of interest and many of the events require high resolution models to fully resolve the complex turbulent processes involved, making simulation costly and energy-consuming. To maximise scientific progress, while limiting the sustainability impact of computation, it is essential to make the most efficient use of both data and numerical models to reduce uncertainties.

The overarching goals of this meeting are therefore to

  1. identify extreme events and tipping elements in climate science where mathematical methods, including Monte Carlo & ensemble methods can create significant advantages, and
  2. to identify mathematical breakthroughs and open challenges that could advance the applicability of numerical sampling methods (e.g. variance estimators).

We are inviting mathematicians and statisticians with an interest in Monte Carlo methods, statistical and machine learning modeling, as well as climate scientist with an interest in extreme and rare events, such as heat waves, droughts, flooding, and tipping elements. We are also reaching out to experts in closely related fields, such as extreme value theory, dynamical systems theory, stochastic analysis and large deviation theory.

The workshop will be hosted at the University of Reading on 15 and 16 June 2026. We aim to start around 12noon on 15 June and wrap up around 4pm on 16 June.

Register here

Registration is free but required. The deadline for registration is 15 May 2026.

Venue

Slingo lecture theatre, JJ Thompson Building

Lunch breaks will take place in room 204, also in the JJ Thompson Building.

Whiteknights campus, University of Reading (campus map, pdf)

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Travel information

From Reading station (bus stop EK on Blagrave Street), you may take Bus 20 “white knight” or Bus 21 “claret” to the “UoR Whiteknights House” stop, and then walk for approx. 3 min to the JJ Thompson (JJT) building. If necessary, a taxi rank can also be found near the train station. Bikes can be hired from Reading Bike Hub (though note the 15:00 closing time on Tuesday, inquire about late drop-offs beforehand).

Schedule

15/06/26
 
12:00
13:00
lunch
JJT room 204
13:00
13:40
Eviatar Bach
“Learning Probabilistic Filters for Data Assimilation“
JJT Slingo
13:40
14:20
Valérian Jacques-Dumas
“Adaptive Multilevel Splitting: Theory and application to models of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation“
(online)
JJT Slingo
14:20
15:30
Coffee & poster session
15:30
16:10
Francesco Coghi
“Large deviations in systems with slow feedback”
JJT Slingo
16:10
16:50
Tobias Grafke
“Extreme events in atmosphere and ocean via sharp large deviations estimates”
JJT Slingo
16:50
17:20
“Optimal perturbation timing to sample fast, transient extreme weather events: minimalist theory and practical deployment“
Justin Finkel
(online)
JJT Slingo
17:20 17:40 Discussions
16/06/26
 
09:00
09:30
Coffee & refreshments
09:30
10:00
Rivkah Moshe
“Large-Deviation-Based Importance Sampling for Rare Transition Paths in Overdamped Langevin Dynamics“
(online)
 JJT Slingo
10:00
10:40
Peter Werner
“Addressing the Lack of Data Issue: Bayesian Generalized Extreme Value Statistics & AI Emulator Driven Rare Event Algorithms”
(online)
JJT Slingo
10:40
11:10
Coffee & refreshments
11:10
11:50
Robin Noyelle
“How to simulate extreme events with climate models and what this can be useful for“
JJT Slingo
11:50
12:20
Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt
“Predicting the Surprises: Ensemble Storylines for Unprecedented Precipitation Events”
JJT Slingo
12:20
13:00
Frank Kwasniok
“Data-driven anticipation and prediction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse using non-autonomous spatio-temporal dynamical modelling”
(online)
JJT Slingo
13:00
14:20
lunch
JJT room 204
14:20
15:00
Joe Clarke
“Conditions for skilful spatial and temporal tipping point early warning signals”
JJT Slingo
15:00
15:30
Ricardo Consonni
“Tangent space precursors of extreme events and critical transitions”
JJT Slingo
15:30
16:00
Discussions

A list of abstracts (under construction) can be found here.

Sponsors

This event is funded by the Centre for Mathematics of Planet Earth and through an Interdisciplinary Collaboration Grant of the London Mathematical Society.

Confirmed speakers

Organizers