2023

Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Dong, B., Maidment, R. I., Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. C. L., Feng, L., Gudoshava, M., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Huntingford, C., Kilavi, M., Lunt, M. F., Shaaban, A. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. ISSN 2662-138X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x

Muetzelfeldt, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6851-7351, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Vidale, P. L. and Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578 (2023) Intraseasonal oscillations of the Silk Road pattern lead to predictability in East Asian precipitation patterns and the Mei Yu front. Environmental Research Communications, 5 (1). 015003. ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb040

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Earth's Future, 11 (2). e2022EF002995. ISSN 2328-4277

2022

Phadtare, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2529-7600, Fletcher, J. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4892-3344, Ross, A. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8631-3512, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2022) Froude‐number‐based rainfall regimes over the Western Ghats mountains of India. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4367

Deoras, A., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 (2022) The structure of strong Indian monsoon low-pressure systems in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal prediction models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (746). pp. 2147-2166. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4296

Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Vidale, P. L. and Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2022) Characterising the interaction of tropical and extratropical air masses controlling East Asian summer monsoon progression using a novel frontal detection approach. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (2). pp. 575-599. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2022) Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty. Journal of Climate, 35 (8). pp. 2305-2326. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2022) Katabatic and convective processes drive two preferred peaks in the precipitation diurnal cycle over the Central Himalaya. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (745). pp. 1731-1751. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4275

Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Guo, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6004-3884 and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2022) Projected changes in the East Asian hydrological cycle for different levels of future global warming. Atmosphere, 13 (3). 405. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030405

Connors, S., Dionne, M., Hanak, G., Musulin, R., Aellen, N., Amjad, M., Bowen, S., Carrascal, D. R., Coppola, E., Moro, E. D., Dosio, A., Faria, S. H., Gan, T. Y., Gomis, M., Gutierrez, J. M., Hope, P., Kopp, R., Krakovska, S., Leitzell, K., Maraun, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Matthews, R., Maycock, T., Paddam, S., Plattner, G.-K., Pui, A., Rahimi, M., Ranasinghe, R., Rogelj, J., Ruane, A. C., Szopa, S., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Vautard, R., Velichkova, Y., Weigel, A. and Zhang, X., (2022) Climate Science: A Summary for Actuaries - What the IPCC Climate Change Report 2021 Means for the Actuarial Profession. Technical Report. International Actuarial Association, Ottawa, Canada. pp61.

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2022) Non-linear intensification of monsoon low pressure systems by the BSISO. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (4). pp. 1341-1358. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1341-2022

2021

Muetzelfeldt, M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6851-7351, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Vidale, P. L. and Roberts, M. J. (2021) Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution general circulation model in a range of decision-relevant spatial scales. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25 (12). pp. 6381-6405. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021

Doyle, A. J., Stein, T. H. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) 2016 Monsoon convection and its place in the large-scale circulation using doppler radars. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (22). e2021JD035496. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035496

Menon, A., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Volonte, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Taylor, C. M., Webster, S. and Martin, G. (2021) The role of mid-tropospheric moistening and land surface wetting in the progression of the 2016 Indian monsoon. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4183

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Dunstone, N. J. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) Skilful seasonal predictions of Global Monsoon summer precipitation with DePreSys3. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (10). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a65

Volonte, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Muetzelfeldt, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6851-7351, Schiemann, R., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2021) Magnitude, scale, and dynamics of the 2020 Mei Yu rains and floods over China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1085-z

Deoras, A., Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) Comparison of the prediction of Indian monsoon low pressure systems by subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (3). pp. 859-877. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0081.1

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Schiemann, R. K. H. (2021) How interactions between tropical depressions and western disturbances affect heavy precipitation in South Asia. Monthly Weather Review, 149 (6). pp. 1801-1825. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0373.1

Deoras, A., Hunt, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) The four varieties of South Asian monsoon low-pressure systems and their modulation by tropical intraseasonal variability. Weather, 76 (6). pp. 194-200. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3997

Doyle, A., Stein, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397 and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) Temporal patterns in radar-observed convective cell development during the 2016 monsoon onset. Weather. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3969

Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Johnson, S., Weisheimer, A., Shonk, J., Stockdale, T. N. and Senan, R. (2021) Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). Climate Dynamics, 56 (9-10). pp. 2941-2957. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05624-5

Talib, J., Taylor, C.M., Duan, A. and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) Intraseasonal soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks on the Tibetan Plateau circulation. Journal of Climate, 34 (5). pp. 1789-1807. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0377.1

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Stein, T. H. M., Fletcher, J. K. and Schiemann, R. H. (2021) Modes of coastal precipitation over southwest India and their relationship to intraseasonal variability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (734). pp. 181-201. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3913

Wang, B., Biasutti, M., Byrne, M. P., Castro, C., Chang, C.-P., Cook, K., Fu, R., Grimm, A. M., Ha, K.-J., Hendon, H., Kitoh, A., Krishnan, R., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Liu, J., Moise, A., Pascale, S., Roxy, M. K., Seth, A., Sui, C.-H., Turner, A., Yang, S., Yun, K.-S., Zhang, L. and Zhou, T. (2021) Monsoons climate change assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (1). E1-E19. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0335.1

Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., Vose, R. S., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Changing state of the climate system. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Canbridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 287-422.

Deoras, A., Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) Comparison of the prediction of Indian monsoon low-pressure systems by Subseasonal-to-Seasonal prediction models. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (3). pp. 859-877. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0081.1

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Sorensson, A. A., Almazroui, M., Dosio, A., Gutowski, W. J., Haarsma, R., Hamdi, R., Hewitson, B., Kwon, W.-T., Lamptey, B. L., Maraun, D., Stephenson, T. S., Takayabu, I., Terray, L., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Zuo, Z. (2021) Linking global to regional climate change. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

2020

Shonk, J. K. P., Turner, A. G., Chevuturi, A., Wilcox, L. J., Dittus, A. J. and Hawkins, E. (2020) Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 20 (23). pp. 14903-14915. ISSN 1680-7375 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Guo, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6004-3884, van der Ent, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5450-4333, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Demory, M.-E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5764-3248, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Stephan, C. and Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221 (2020) Effects of horizontal resolution and air-sea coupling on simulated moisture source for East Asian precipitation. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 13 (12). pp. 6011-6028. ISSN 1991-962X doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6011-2020

Wilcox, L. J., Liu, Z., Samset, B. H., Hawkins, E., Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A. M. L., Krishnan, S., Merikanto, J. and Turner, A. G. (2020) Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20 (20). pp. 11955-11977. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020

Di Capua, G., Runge, J., Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D. (2020) Dominant patterns of boreal summer interactions between tropics and mid-latitude: causal relationships and the role of timescales. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2). pp. 519-539. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020

Cui, J., Piao, S., Huntingford, C., Wang, X., Lian, X., Chevuturi, A., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Kooperman, G. J. (2020) Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate. Nature Communications, 11. 5184. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18992-7

Hunt, K., Turner, A. and Shaffrey, L. (2020) The impacts of climate change on the winter water cycle of the western Himalaya. Climate Dynamics, 55 (7-8). pp. 2287-2307. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05383-3

Volonté, A., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Menon, A. (2020) Airmass analysis of the processes driving the progression of the Indian summer monsoon. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2949-2980. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3700

Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Bhat, G. S., Martin, G. M., Parker, D. J., Taylor, C.M., Mitra, A. K., Tripathi, S. N., Milton, S., Rajagopal, E. N., Evans, J. G., Morrison, R., Pattnaik, S., Sekhar, M., Bhattacharya, B. K., Madan, R., Govindankutty, M., Fletcher, J. K., Willetts, P. D., Menon, A., Marsham, J. H., Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Chakraborty, T., George, G., Krishnan, M., Sarangi, C., Belusic, D., Garcia-Carreras, L., Brooks, M., Webster, S., Brooke, J. K., Fox, C., Harlow, R. C., Langridge, J. M., Jayakumar, A., Boeing, S. J., Halliday, O., Bowles, J., Kent, J., O'Sullivan, D., Wilson, A., Woods, C., Rogers, S., Smout-Day, R., Tiddeman, D., Desai, D., Nigam, R., Paleri, S., Sattar, A., Smith, M., Anderson, D., Bauguitte, S., Carling, R., Chan, C., Devereau, S., Gratton, G., MacLeod, D., Nott, G., Pickering, M., Price, H., Rastall, S., Reed, C., Trembath, J., Woolley, A., Volonté, A. and New, B. (2020) Interaction of convective organisation with monsoon precipitation, atmosphere, surface and sea: the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign in India. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2828-2852. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3633

Jayakumar, A., Abel, S. J., Turner, A. G., Mohandas, S., Sethunadh, J., O'Sullivan, D., Mitra, A. K. and Rajagopal, E. N. (2020) Performance of the NCMRWF convection-permitting model during contrasting monsoon phases of the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2928-2948. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3689

Barton, E. J., Taylor, C. M., Parker, D. J., Turner, A. G., Belusic, D., Boeing, S. J., Brooke, J. K., Harlow, R. C., Harris, P. P., Hunt, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Jayakumar, A. and Mitra, A. K. (2020) A case-study of land-atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2891-2905. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3538

Fletcher, J. K., Parker, D. J., Turner, A. G., Menon, A., Martin, G. M., Birch, C. E., Mitra, A. K., Mrudula, G., Hunt, K. M. R., Taylor, C. M., Houze, R. A., Brodzik, S. R. and Bhat, G. S. (2020) The dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the monsoon over southern India: new observations from the INCOMPASS IOP. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2867-2890. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3439

Hazra, V., Pattnaik, S., Sisodiya, A., Baisya, H., Turner, A. G. and Bhat, G. S. (2020) Assessing the performance of cloud microphysical parameterization over the Indian region: simulation of monsoon depressions and validation with INCOMPASS observations. Atmospheric Research, 239. 104925. ISSN 0169-8059 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104925

Huang, X., Zhou, T., Turner, A., Dai, A., Chen, X., Clark, R., Jiang, J., Man, W., Murphy, J., Rostron, J., Wu, B., Zhang, L., Zhang, W. and Zou, L. (2020) The recent decline and recovery of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: relative roles of external forcing and internal variability. Journal of Climate, 33 (12). pp. 5035-5060. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0833.1

Dosio, A., Turner, A. G., Tchio, A. T., Sylla, M. B., Lennard, C., Jones, R., Terray, L., Nikulin, G. and Hewitson, B. (2020) A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (6). 064007. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7fde

Hu, S., Zhang, W., Turner, A. G. and Sun, J. (2020) How does El Niño-Southern oscillation affect winter fog frequency over eastern China? Climate Dynamics, 54. pp. 1043-1056. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05043-1

2019

Sisodiya, A., Pattnaik, S., Baisya, H., Bhat, G. S. and Turner, A. G. (2019) Simulation of location-specific severe thunderstorm events using high-resolution land data assimilation. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 87. 101098. ISSN 0377-0265 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.101098

Hunt, K. M. R. and Turner, A. G. (2019) The role of the subtropical jet in deficient winter precipitation across the mid-Holocene Indus basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (10). pp. 5452-5459. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL081920

Brooks, J., Allan, J. D., Williams, P. I., Liu, D., Fox, C., Haywood, J., Langridge, J. M., Highwood, E. J., Kompalli, S. K., O'Sullivan, D., Babu, S. S., Satheesh, S. K., Turner, A. G. and Coe, H. (2019) Vertical and horizontal distribution of sub-micron aerosol chemical composition and physical characteristics across Northern India, during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19. pp. 5615-5634. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1109

Guo, L., van der Ent, R., Klingaman, N., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A., Stephan, C. and Chevuturi, A. (2019) Moisture sources for East Asian precipitation: mean seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20. pp. 657-672. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0188.1

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2019) Representation of western disturbances in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 1997-2011. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0420.1

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P. and Turner, A. G. (2019) A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 717-736. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1

Zhang, W., Wang, Z., Stuecker, M. F., Turner, A. G., Jin, F.-F. and Geng, X. (2019) Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO. Climate Dynamics, 52 (1-2). pp. 257-274. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4135-1

Zhang, W., Mei, X., Geng, X., Turner, A. G. and Jin, F.-F. (2019) A nonstationary ENSO-NAO relationship due to AMO modulation. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 33-43. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0365.1

Brooks, J., Liu, D., Allan, J. D., Williams, P. I., Haywood, J., Highwood, E. J., Kompalli, S. K., Babu, S. S., Satheesh, S. K., Turner, A. G. and Coe, H. (2019) Black carbon physical and optical properties across northern India during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19 (20). pp. 13079-13096. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13079-2019

Curio, J., Schiemann, R., Hodges, K. and Turner, A. G. (2019) Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices in reanalysis data and a high-resolution global climate model. Journal of Climate, 32 (6). pp. 1933-1950. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0021.1

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2019) Falling trend of western disturbances in future climate simulations. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 5037-5051. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0601.1

Chevuturi, A., Turner, A. G., Woolnough, S. J., Martin, G. M. and MacLachlan, C. (2019) Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2). Climate Dynamics, 52 (11). pp. 6599-6617. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4536-1

Wainwright, C. M., Hirons, L. C., Klingaman, N. P., Allan, R. P., Black, E. and Turner, A. G. (2019) The impact of air-sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 53 (11). pp. 7027-7044. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0

2018

Guo, L., Klingaman, N. P., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G. and Stephan, C. C. (2018) The contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asian precipitation and its variability. Climate Dynamics, 51 (11-12). pp. 4139-4156. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4064-4

Hunt, K. M. R., Curio, J., Turner, A. G. and Schiemann, R. (2018) Subtropical westerly jet influence on occurrence of western disturbances and Tibetan plateau vortices. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (16). pp. 8629-8636. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077734

Wong, K. C., Liu, S., Turner, A. G. and Schiemann, R. K. (2018) Different Asian monsoon rainfall responses to idealised orography sensitivity experiments in the HadGEM3-GA6 and FGOALS-FAMIL global climate models. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35 (8). pp. 1049-1062. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-7269-5

Curio, J., Chen, Y., Schiemann, R., Turner, A. G., Wong, K. C., Hodges, K. and Li, Y. (2018) Comparison of a manual and an automated tracking method for Tibetan Plateau vortices. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35 (8). pp. 965-980. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-7278-4

Hirons, L. and Turner, A. (2018) The impact of Indian Ocean mean-state biases in climate models on the representation of the East African short rains. Journal of Climate, 31 (16). pp. 6611-6631. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0804.1

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part II: intraseasonal variability. Climate Dynamics, 51 (1-2). pp. 17-33. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3904-6

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: interannual variability. Climate Dynamics, 50 (11-12). pp. 4405-4424. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3882-8

Rai, P., Joshi, M., Dimri, A. P. and Turner, A. (2018) The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability. Climate Dynamics, 50 (11-12). pp. 4149-4169. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3865-9

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (5). pp. 1823-1847. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1823-2018

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2018) Extreme daily rainfall in Pakistan and north India: scale-interactions, mechanisms, and precursors. Monthly Weather Review, 146 (4). pp. 1005-1022. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0258.1

Menon, A., Turner, A. G., Martin, G. M. and MacLachlan, C. (2018) Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (713). pp. 1152-1168. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3281

George, G., Sarangi, C., Tripathi, S. N., Chakraborty, T. and Turner, A. (2018) Vertical structure and radiative forcing of monsoon clouds over Kanpur during the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (4). pp. 2152-2174. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027759

Toh, Y. Y., Turner, A. G., Johnson, S. J. and Holloway, C. E. (2018) Maritime continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 777-800. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3641-x

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2018) The evolution, seasonality, and impacts of western disturbances. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (710). pp. 278-290. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3200

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) Intraseasonal summer rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (8). pp. 3215-3233. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3215-2018

Chevuturi, A., Klingaman, N. P., Turner, A. G. and Hannah, S. (2018) Projected changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C global-warming scenarios. Earth's Future, 6 (3). pp. 339-358. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000734

2017

Hunt, K. M. and Turner, A. G. (2017) The effect of soil moisture perturbations on Indian Monsoon Depressions in a numerical weather prediction model. Journal of Climate, 30 (21). pp. 8811-8823. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0733.1

Jayakumar, A., Turner, A., Johnson, S., Rajagopal, E., Mohandas, S. and Mitra, A. (2017) Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 49 (5-6). pp. 2035-2059. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3423-x

Willetts, P. D., Turner, A. G., Martin, G. M., Mrudula, G., Hunt, K. M., Parker, D. J., Taylor, C. M., Birch, C. E., Mitra, A. K., Heming, J. T. and Brooks, M. E. (2017) The 2015 Indian summer monsoon onset - phenomena, forecasting and research flight planning. Weather, 72 (6). pp. 168-175. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2819

Guo, L., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Cobb, A. (2017) Contribution of tropical cyclones to atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall over East Asia. Journal of Climate, 30 (10). pp. 3853-3865. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0308.1

Hunt, K. M. R. and Turner, A. G. (2017) The effect of horizontal resolution on Indian monsoon depressions in the Met Office NWP model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (705). pp. 1756-1771. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3030

Sperber, K. R., Cusiner, E., Kitoh, A., Mechoso, C. R., Moise, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Schiro, K. and Turner, A. G. (2017) Chapter 7: Modelling monsoons. In: Chang, C.-P., Kuo, H.-C., Lau, N.-C., Johnson, R. H., Wang, B. and Wheeler, M. C. (eds.) The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, 3rd edition. World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, 9. World Scientific, Singapore, pp. 79-101. ISBN 9789813200906 doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813200913_0007

Johnson, S. J., Turner, A., Woolnough, S., Martin, G. and MacLachlan, C. (2017) An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system. Climate Dynamics, 48 (5). pp. 1447-1465. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3151-2

Turner, A. G. and Wang, B. (2017) Chapter 23: Interdecadal variability of the Asian summer monsoons. In: Chang, C.-P., Kuo, H.-C., Lau, N.-C., Johnson, R. H., Wang, B. and Wheeler, M. C. (eds.) The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, 3rd edition. World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, 9. World Scientific, Singapore, pp. 289-301. ISBN 9789813200906 doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813200913_0023

2016

Zhou, T., Turner, A. G., Kinter, J. L., Wang, B., Qian, Y., Chen, X., Wu, B., Wang, B., Liu, B., Zou, L. and Bian, H. (2016) GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (10). pp. 3589-3604. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3589-2016

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. and Parker, D. E. (2016) The spatiotemporal structure of precipitation in Indian monsoon depressions. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (701). pp. 3195-3210. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2901

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G., Inness, P. M., Parker, D. E. and Levine, R. C. (2016) On the structure and dynamics of Indian monsoon depressions. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (9). pp. 3391-3416. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0138.1

Parker, D. J., Willetts, P., Birch, C., Turner, A. G., Marsham, J. H., Taylor, C. M., Kolusu, S. and Martin, G. M. (2016) The interaction of moist convection and mid-level dry air in the advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (699). pp. 2256-2272. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2815

Zhang, W., Li, H., Stuecker, M. F., Jin, F.-F. and Turner, A. (2016) A new understanding of El Niño's impact over East Asia: dominance of the ENSO combination mode. Journal of Climate, 29 (12). pp. 4347-4359. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0104.1

Johnson, S. J., Levine, R. C., Turner, A. G., Martin, G. M., Woolnough, S. J., Schiemann, R., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Demory, M.-E. and Strachan, J. (2016) The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM. Climate Dynamics, 46 (3-4). pp. 807-831. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2614-1

Guo, L., Turner, A. G. and Highwood, E. J. (2016) Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM. Journal of Climate, 29 (19). pp. 6937-6955. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0728.1

2015

Prakash, S., Mitra, A. K., Momin, I. M., Rajagopal, E. N., Basu, S., Collins, M., Turner, A. G., Achuto Rao, K. and Ashok, K. (2015) Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season. International Journal of Climatology, 35 (9). pp. 2326-2338. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4129

Zhang, W., Li, H., Jin, F. F., Stuecker, M. F., Turner, A. G. and Klingaman, N. P. (2015) The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO’s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure. Journal of Climate, 28 (14). pp. 5795-5812. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00724.1

Guo, L., Turner, A. and Highwood, E. (2015) Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (11). pp. 6367-6378. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6367-2015

Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G. and Brayshaw, D. J. (2015) The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (6). 064002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002

Bush, S. J., Turner, A. G., Woolnough, S. J., Martin, G. M. and Klingaman, N. P. (2015) The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM General Circulation Model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (686). pp. 311-326. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2371

Zhang, W., Wang, Y., Jin, F.-F., Stuecker, M. F. and Turner, A. G. (2015) Impact of different El Niño types on the El Niño/IOD relationship. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (20). pp. 8570-8576. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065703

2014

Zhang, W., Jin, F.-F. and Turner, A. (2014) Increasing Autumn drought over Southern China associated with ENSO regime shift. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (11). pp. 4020-4026. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060130

2013

Sperber, K. R., Annamalai, H., Kang, I.-S., Kitoh, A., Moise, A., Turner, A., Wang, B. and Zhou, T. (2013) The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Climate Dynamics, 41 (9-10). pp. 2711-2744. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6

Collins, M., AchutaRao, K., Ashok, K., Bhandari, S., Karumuri, A., Mitra, A., Prakash, S., Srivistava, R. and Turner, A. (2013) Observational challenges in evaluating climate models. Nature Climate Change, 3. pp. 940-941. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2012

Levine, R.C., Turner, A., Marathayil, D. and Martin, G. (2013) The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 41 (1). pp. 155-172. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1656-x

Hannachi, A. and Turner, A. G. (2013) Isomap nonlinear dimensionality reduction and bimodality of Asian monsoon convection. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (8). pp. 1653-1658. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50351

Marathayil, D., Turner, A. G., Shaffrey, L. C. and Levine, R. C. (2013) Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014028

Guo, L., Highwood, E., Shaffrey, L. and Turner, A. (2013) The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13. pp. 1521-1534. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013

Joshi, M., Turner, A. G. and Hope, C. (2013) The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics. Climatic Change, 117 (4). pp. 951-960. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0715-6

Hannachi, A. and Turner, A. G. (2013) 20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20 (5). pp. 725-741. ISSN 1607-7946 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-725-2013

2012

Turner, A. G., Joshi, M., Robertson, E. S. and Woolnough, S. J. (2012) The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM. Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4). pp. 811-826. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1254-3

Turner, A. G. and Annamalai, H. (2012) Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nature Climate Change, 2. pp. 587-595. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495

Krishnan, R., Sabin, T. P., Ayantika, D. C., Kitoh, A., Sugi, M., Murakami, H., Turner, A. G. , Slingo, J. M. and Rajendran, K. (2012) Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further? Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 187-211. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1317-0

Levine, R. C. and Turner, A. G. (2012) Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases. Climate Dynamics, 38 (11-12). pp. 2167-2190. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1096-z

2011

Turner, A. G. and Slingo, J. M. (2011) Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM. Climate Dynamics, 36 (9-10). pp. 1717-1735. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0805-3

Turner, A. G., Sperber, K., Slingo, J. M., Meehl, G., Mechoso, C. R., Kimoto, M. and Giannini, A. (2011) Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour. In: Chang, C.-P., Ding, Y., Lau, G. N.-C., Johnson, R. H., Wang, B. and Yasunari, T. (eds.) The global monsoon system: research and forecast, 2nd edition. World scientific series on Asia-Pacific weather and climate, 5. World Scientific/WMO, London Singapore New Jersey, pp. 421-454. ISBN 9789814343404

2010

Woollings, T., Hannachi, A., Hoskins, B. and Turner, A. (2010) A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing. Journal of Climate, 23 (6). pp. 1291-1307. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3087.1

Turner, A. G. and Hannachi, A. (2010) Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century? Geophysical Research Letters, 37. L16706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044159

2009

Turner, A. G. and Slingo, J. M. (2009) Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135 (640). pp. 549-567. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.401

Turner, A. G. and Slingo, J. M. (2009) Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10 (3). pp. 152-158. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.223

2008

Hannachi, A. and Turner, A. G. (2008) Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134 (631). pp. 469-480. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236

2007

Turner, A.G., Inness, P.M. and Slingo, J.M. (2007) The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626). pp. 1143-1157. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.82

Turner, A.G., Inness, P.M. and Slingo, J.M. (2007) The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133. pp. 1159-1173. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.83

2005

Turner, A.G., Inness, P.M. and Slingo, J.M. (2005) The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131 (607). pp. 781-804. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.70