2023

Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Compo, Gilbert P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5199-9633 and Sardeshmukh, Prashant D. (2023) ESD ideas: translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (5). pp. 1081-1084. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023

Tett, Simon F. B., Cha, YoungHwa, Donovan, Kate, Geffers, Gina-Maria and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) The impact of an extreme cloud burst on Edinburgh Castle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104 (10). E1807-E1816. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0196.1

Teleti, Praveen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-8488, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Wood, Kevin R. (2023) Digitizing weather observations from World War II US naval ship logbooks. Geoscience Data Journal. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.222

King, Andrew David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-5745, Douglas, Hunter Callum ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5411-7656, Harrington, Luke James ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1699-6119, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Borowiak, Alexander R. (2023) Climate change emergence over people’s lifetimes. Environmental Research: Climate. ISSN 2752-5295 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aceff2 (In Press)

Lehner, Flavio ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4632-9701, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Sutton, Rowan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Pendergrass, Angeline G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2542-1461 and Moore, Frances C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3866-9642 (2023) New potential to reduce uncertainty in regional climate projections by combining physical and socio‐economic constraints. AGU Advances, 4 (4). e2023AV000887. ISSN 2576-604X doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV000887

Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Alexander, Lisa V. and Allan, Rob J. (2023) Millions of digitized historical sea-level pressure observations rediscovered. Geoscience Data Journal, 10 (3). pp. 385-395. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.163

Yule, Emma L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5492-2217, Hegerl, Gabriele, Schurer, Andrew and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) Using early extremes to place the 2022 UK heat waves into historical context. Atmospheric Science Letters, 24 (7). e1159. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1159

O'Kane, Terence J., Scaife, Adam A., Kushnir, Yochanan, Brookshaw, Anca, Buontempo, Carlo, Carlin, David, Connell, Richenda K., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Dunstone, Nick, Förster, Kristian, Graça, Antonio, Hobday, Alistair J., Kitsios, Vassili, van der Laan, Larissa, Lockwood, Julia, Merryfield, William J., Paxian, Andreas, Payne, Mark R., Reader, M. Catherine, Saville, Geoffrey R., Smith, Doug, Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan, Caltabiano, Nico, Carman, Jessie, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Keenlyside, Noel, Kumar, Arun, Matei, Daniela, Pohlmann, Holger, Power, Scott, Raphael, Marilyn, Sparrow, Michael and Wu, Bo (2023) Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions. Frontiers in Climate, 5. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

Harvey, Ben ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, Rowan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095

Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Brohan, Philip, Burgess, Samantha N., Burt, Stephen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546, Compo, Gilbert P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5199-9633, Gray, Suzanne L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Haigh, Ivan D., Hersbach, Hans ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-7071, Kuijjer, Kiki, Martinez-Alvarado, Oscar ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, McColl, Chesley, Schurer, Andrew P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9176-3622, Slivinski, Laura and Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481 (2023) Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23 (4). pp. 1465-1482. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023

Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Burt, Stephen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546, McCarthy, Mark, Murphy, Conor, Ross, Catherine, Baldock, Mike, Brazier, John, Hersee, Gill, Huntley, Jacqui, Meats, Richard, O'Grady, John, Scrimgeour, Ian and Silk, Tim (2023) Millions of historical monthly rainfall observations taken in the UK and Ireland rescued by citizen scientists. Geoscience Data Journal, 10 (2). pp. 246-261. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.157

Grose, Michael R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8012-9960, Boschat, Ghyslaine, Trewin, Blair ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8186-7885, Round, Vanessa, Ashcroft, Linden, King, Andrew D., Narsey, Sugata and Hawkins, Edward ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 73 (1). pp. 30-43. ISSN 2206-5865 doi: https://doi.org/10.1071/ES22018

Joshi, Manoj ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Hall, Robert A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3665-6322, Stevens, David P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7283-4405 and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (2). pp. 443-455. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023

2022

Douglas, Hunter Callum ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5411-7656, Harrington, Luke James ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1699-6119, Joshi, Manoj, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Revell, Laura E. and Frame, David J. (2022) Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca91e (In Press)

Harrison, Giles ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X, Nicoll, Keri, Joshi, Manoj and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2022) Empirical evidence for multidecadal scale global atmospheric electric circuit modulation by the El Niño-southern oscillation. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca68c (In Press)

Ortega, Pablo, Blockley, Edward W., Køltzow, Morten, Massonnet, François, Sandu, Irina, Svensson, Gunilla, Acosta Navarro, Juan C., Arduini, Gabriele, Batté, Lauriane, Bazile, Eric, Chevallier, Matthieu, Cruz-García, Rubén, Day, Jonathan J., Fichefet, Thierry, Flocco, Daniela, Gupta, Mukesh, Hartung, Kerstin, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hinrichs, Claudia, Magnusson, Linus, Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo, Pérez-Montero, Sergio, Ponsoni, Leandro, Semmler, Tido, Smith, Doug, Sterlin, Jean, Tjernström, Michael, Välisuo, Ilona and Jung, Thomas (2022) Improving Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction: recommendations for future forecast systems evolution from the European project APPLICATE. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103 (10). E2203-E2213. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0083.1

Lorrey, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Allan, Rob, Wilkinson, Clive, Woolley, John-Mark, Judd, Emily, Mackay, Stuart, Rawhat, Sudhir, Slivinski, Laura, Wilkinson, Sally, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Quesnel, Patrick and Compo, Gilbert P. (2022) Meteorological data rescue: citizen science lessons learned from Southern Weather Discovery. Patterns, 3 (6). 100495. ISSN 2666-3899 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100495

Osso, Albert ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Allan, Richard P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, Len and Maraun, Douglas (2022) Emerging new climate extremes over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 58. pp. 487-501. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3

2021

Sandu, Irina ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1215-3288, Massonnet, François ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4697-5781, Achter, Guillian, Acosta Navarro, Juan C., Arduini, Gabriele ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6564-1699, Bauer, Peter, Blockley, Ed, Bormann, Niels, Chevallier, Matthieu, Day, Jonathan, Dahoui, Mohamed, Fichefet, Thierry, Flocco, Daniela, Jung, Thomas, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Laroche, Stephane ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4886-5535, Lawrence, Heather, Kristiansen, Jørn, Moreno‐Chamarro, Eduardo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7931-5149, Ortega, Pablo, Poan, Emmanuel, Ponsoni, Leandro and Randriamampianina, Roger (2021) The potential of numerical prediction systems to support the design of Arctic observing systems: insights from the APPLICATE and YOPP projects. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741). pp. 3863-3877. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4182

Dittus, Andrea J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Robson, Jon I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Smith, Doug M. and Wilcox, Laura J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2021) Drivers of recent North Pacific decadal variability: the role of aerosol forcing. Earth's Future, 9 (12). e2021EF002249. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002249

King, Andrew D., Kale Sniderman, J. M., Dittus, Andrea J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Brown, Josephine R., Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Ziehn, Tilo (2021) Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels. Nature Climate Change, 11. pp. 1010-1013. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01225-0

Baker, Laura, Shaffrey, Len and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s due to climate change? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741). pp. 4143-4162. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4172

Dacre, Helen F., Western, Luke M., Say, Daniel, O'Doherty, Simon, Arnold, Tim, Rennick, Chris and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Detectability of COVID-19 global emissions reductions in local CO2 concentration measurements. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (9). 094043. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1eda

Allan, Richard P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Bellouin, Nicolas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 and Collins, Bill ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850 (2021) IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 3-32. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001 (In Press)

Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Whitaker, J. S., McColl, C., Allan, R. J., Brohan, P., Yin, X., Smith, C. A., Spencer, L. J., Vose, R. S., Rohrer, M., Conroy, R. P., Schuster, D. C., Kennedy, J. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jones, P. D., Kubota, H., Lee, T. C., Lorrey, A. M., Luterbacher, J., Mock, C. J., Przybylak, R. K., Pudmenzky, C., Slonosky, V. C., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Wang, X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K. and Wyszyński, P. (2021) An evaluation of the performance of the twentieth century reanalysis version 3. Journal of Climate, 34 (4). pp. 1417-1438. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1

Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., Vose, R. S., Allan, Richard ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Collins, Bill ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Turner, Andy ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Changing state of the climate system. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 287-422. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004

Arias, Paola A., Bellouin, Nicolas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Coppola, Erika, Jones, Richard G., Krinner, Gerhard, Marotzke, Jochem, Naik, Vaishali, Palmer, Matthew D., Plattner, Gian-Kasper, Rogelj, Joeri, Rojas, Maisa, Sillmann, Jana, Storelvmo, Trude, Thorne, Peter W., Trewin, Blair, Rao, Krishna Achuta, Adhikary, Bhupesh, Allan, Richard P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Armour, Kyle, Bala, Govindasamy, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, Berger, Sophie, Canadell, Josep G., Cassou, Christophe, Cherchi, Annalisa, Collins, William ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Collins, William D., Connors, Sarah L., Corti, Susanna, Cruz, Faye, Dentener, Frank J., Dereczynski, Claudine, Luca, Alejandro Di, Niang, Aida Diongue, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Dosio, Alessandro, Douville, Hervé, Engelbrecht, Francois, Eyring, Veronika, Fischer, Erich, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Fuglestvedt, Jan S., Fyfe, John C., Gillett, Nathan P., Goldfarb, Leah, Gorodetskaya, Irina, Gutierrez, Jose Manuel, Hamdi, Rafiq, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hewitt, Helene T., Hope, Pandora, Islam, Akm Saiful, Jones, Christopher, Kaufman, Darrell S., Kopp, Robert E., Kosaka, Yu, Kossin, James, Krakovska, Svitlana, Lee, June-Yi, Li, Jian, Mauritsen, T., Maycock, Thomas K., Meinshausen, Malte, Min, Seung-Ki, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Otto, Friederike, Pinto, Izidine, Pirani, Anna, Raghavan, Krishnan, Ranasinghe, Roshanka, Ruane, Alex C., Ruiz, Lucas, Sallée, Jean-Baptiste, Samset, Bjorn H., Sathyendranath, Shubha, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Sörensson, Anna A., Szopa, Sophie, Takayabu, Izuru, Tréguier, Anne-Marie, van den Hurk, Bart, Vautard, Robert, von Schuckmann, Karina, Zaehle, Sonke, Zhang, Xuebin and Zickfeld., Kirsten (2021) Technical summary. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group. Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33-144. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002

2020

Shonk, Jonathan K. P., Turner, Andrew G., Chevuturi, Amulya, Wilcox, Laura J., Dittus, Andrea J. and Hawkins, Ed (2020) Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 20 (23). pp. 14903-14915. ISSN 1680-7375 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Craig, Philip M. and Hawkins, Ed (2020) Digitizing observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900–1910 using citizen scientist volunteers. Geoscience Data Journal, 7 (2). pp. 116-134. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.93

Wilcox, Laura J., Liu, Zhen, Samset, Bjørn H., Hawkins, Ed, Lund, Marianne T., Nordling, Kalle, Undorf, Sabine, Bollasina, Massimo, Ekman, Annica M. L., Krishnan, Srinath, Merikanto, Joonas and Turner, Andy G. (2020) Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20 (20). pp. 11955-11977. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020

Sutton, Rowan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) ESD Ideas: global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments. Earth System Dynamics, 11. pp. 751-754. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

Dittus, Andrea J., Hawkins, Ed, Wilcox, Laura J., Sutton, Rowan, Smith, Christopher J., Andrews, Martin B. and Forster, Piers M. (2020) Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13). e2019GL085806. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085806

Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara, Maher, Nicola, Marotzke, Jochem, Fischer, Erich M., Brunner, Lukas, Knutti, Reto and Hawkins, Ed (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. Earth System Dynamics, 11 (2). pp. 491-508. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Frame, D., Harrington, L., Joshi, M., King, A., Rojas, M. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2020) Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (6). e2019GL086259. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086259

Eunice Lo, Y. T., Mitchell, Daniel M., Bohnenstengel, Sylvia I., Collins, Mat, Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Joshi, Manoj and Stott, Peter A. (2020) U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England’s major cities. Journal of Climate, 33 (20). pp. 9015-9030. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1

2019

Wood, Richard A., Rodríguez, José M., Smith, Robin S., Jackson, Laura C. and Hawkins, Ed (2019) Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, 53 (11). pp. 6815-6834. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04956-1

Hawkins, Ed, Burt, Stephen, Brohan, Philip, Lockwood, Mike, Richardson, Harriett, Roy, Marjory and Thomas, Simon (2019) Hourly weather observations from the Scottish Highlands (1883–1904) rescued by volunteer citizen scientists. Geoscience Data Journal, 6 (2). pp. 160-173. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.79

Valdivieso Da Costa, Maria, Owens, Mathew J., Scott, Chris J., Hawkins, Ed, Burt, Stephen and Craig, Philip (2019) Thunderstorm occurrence at ten sites across Great Britain over 1884–1993. Geoscience Data Journal, 6 (2). pp. 222-233. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.75

Boult, Victoria L., Fishlock, Vicki, Quaife, Tristan, Hawkins, Ed, Moss, Cynthia, Lee, Phyllis C. and Sibly, Richard M. (2019) Human‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change. Conservation Science and Practice, 1 (9). pp. 1-10. ISSN 2578-4854 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.87

Hawkins, Ed, Fæhn, Taran and Fuglestvedt, Jan (2019) The climate spiral demonstrates the power of sharing creative ideas. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (5). pp. 753-756. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0228.1

Asher, Claire, Britton, Ben, Coe, Hugh, Collins, Matthew, Few, Sheridan, Finlayson, Brian, Gilbert, Alyssa, Graven, Heather, Grimmond, Sue ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3166-9415, Haigh, Joanna D., Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Highwood, Ellie, Lawrence, Bryan, Marshall, Shawn, Marsham, John, Shepherd, John, Shine, Keith and Woolings, Tim (2019) 30-second climate: the 50 most topical features, measurements and phenomena, each explained in half a minute. Ivy Press. ISBN 9781782405504

Marchi, Sylvain, Fichefet, Thierry, Goosse, Hugues, Zunz, Violette, Tietsche, Steffen, Day, Jonathan and Hawkins, Ed (2019) Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models. Climate Dynamics, 52 (5-6). pp. 2775-2797. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2

Kushnir, Yochanan, Scaife, Adam A., Arritt, Raymond, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Boer, George, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Hawkins, Ed, Kimoto, Masahide, Kolli, Rupa Kumar, Kumar, Arun, Matei, Daniela, Matthes, Katja, Müller, Wolfgang A., O'Kane, Terence, Perlwitz, Judith, Power, Scott, Raphael, Marilyn, Shimpo, Akihiko, Smith, Doug, Tuma, Matthias and Wu, Bo (2019) Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate. Nature Climate Change, 9. pp. 94-101. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

Hegerl, Gabriele C., Brönnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Friedman, Andrew R., Hawkins, Ed, Iles, Carley, Müller, Wolfgang, Schurer, Andrew and Undorf, Sabine (2019) Causes of climate change over the historical record. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (12). 123006. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557

Burt, Stephen and Hawkins, Ed (2019) Near-zero humidities on Ben Nevis, Scotland, revealed by pioneering 19th-century observers and modern volunteers. International Journal of Climatology, 39 (11). pp. 4451-4466. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6084

Slivinski, Laura C., Compo, Gilbert P., Whitaker, Jeffrey S., Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., Giese, Benjamin S., McColl, Chesley, Allan, Rob, Yin, Xungang, Vose, Russell, Titchner, Holly, Kennedy, John, Spencer, Lawrence J., Ashcroft, Linden, Brönnimann, Stefan, Brunet, Manola, Camuffo, Dario, Cornes, Richard, Cram, Thomas A., Crouthamel, Richard, Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando, Freeman, J. Eric, Gergis, Joëlle, Hawkins, Ed, Jones, Philip D., Jourdain, Sylvie, Kaplan, Alexey, Kubota, Hisayuki, Blancq, Frank Le, Lee, Tsz‐Cheung, Lorrey, Andrew, Luterbacher, Jürg, Maugeri, Maurizio, Mock, Cary J., Moore, G.W. Kent, Przybylak, Rajmund, Pudmenzky, Christa, Reason, Chris, Slonosky, Victoria C., Smith, Catherine A., Tinz, Birger, Trewin, Blair, Valente, Maria Antónia, Wang, Xiaolan L., Wilkinson, Clive, Wood, Kevin and Wyszyński, Przemysław (2019) Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (724). pp. 2876-2908. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598

2018

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G. A., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X. and Yeager, S. (2018) Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (21). pp. 11895-11903. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362

Stammer, D., Bracco, A., Braconnot, P., Brasseur, G. P., Griffies, S. M. and Hawkins, E. (2018) Science directions in a post-COP21-world of transient climate change: enabling regional to local predictions in support of reliable climate information. Earth's Future, 6 (11). pp. 1498-1507. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000979

Arnell, Nigel, Qingchen, C., Ying, X., Junfeng, L., Tong, J., Guangsheng, Z., Kexiu, L., Brown, Sally, Challinor, Andrew, Hawkins, Ed, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Nicholls, Robert, Sutton, Rowan, Rensheng, C., Xiaomin, L. and Wentao, W. (2018) Direct risks of climate change. In: UK-China Co-operation on Climate Change Risk Assessment: Developing Indicators of Climate Risk. Committee on Climate Change, London, pp. 58-97.

Cassou, Christophe, Kushnir, Yochanan, Hawkins, Ed, Pirani, Anna, Kucharski, Fred, Kang, In-Sik and Caltabiano, Nico (2018) Decadal climate variability and predictability: challenges and opportunities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (3). pp. 479-490. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0286.1

Mora, Camilo, Spirandelli, Daniele, Franklin, Erik C., Lynham, John, Kantar, Michael B., Miles, Wendy, Smith, Charlotte Z., Freel, Kelle, Moy, Jade, Louis, Leo V., Barba, Evan W., Bettinger, Keith, Frazier, Abby G., Colburn IX, John F., Hanasaki, Naota, Hawkins, Ed, Hirabayashi, Yukiko, Knorr, Wolfgang, Little, Christopher M., Emanuel, Kerry, Sheffield, Justin, Patz, Jonathan A. and Hunter, Cynthia L. (2018) Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions. Nature Climate Change, 8. pp. 1062-1071. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6

Schurer, A. P., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E., Mann, M. E., Scott, V. and Tett, S. F. B. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target. Nature Geoscience, 11. pp. 220-221. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8

2017

Owens, Mathew J., Lockwood, Mike, Hawkins, Ed, Usoskin, Ilya, Jones, Gareth S., Barnard, Luke, Schurer, Andrew and Fasullo, John (2017) The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 7. A33. ISSN 2115-7251 doi: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2017034

Harrington, Luke J., Frame, David J., Hawkins, Ed and Joshi, Manoj (2017) Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11). 114039. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa95ae

Bethke, Ingo, Outten, Stephen, Otterå, Odd Helge, Hawkins, Ed, Wagner, Sebastian, Sigl, Michael and Thorne, Peter (2017) Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability. Nature Climate Change, 7 (11). pp. 799-805. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3394

Wolf, Eric, Arnell, Nigel, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gregory, Jonathan, Haigh, Joanna, Haines, Andy, Hawkins, Ed, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hoskins, Brian, Mace, Georgina, Prentice, Iain Colin, Shine, Keith, Smith, Peter, Sutton, Rowan and Turley, Carol, (2017) Climate updates: what have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report? Report. The Royal Society, London, UK. pp36. ISBN 9781782523062

Hawkins, Ed, Ortega, Pablo, Suckling, Emma, Schurer, Andrew, Hegerl, Gabi, Jones, Phil, Joshi, Manoj, Osborn, Timothy J., Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Mignot, Juliette, Thorne, Peter and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (2017) Estimating changes in global temperature since the preindustrial period. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (9). pp. 1841-1856. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0007.1

Melia, Nathanael, Haines, Keith and Hawkins, Ed, (2017) Implications from opening Arctic sea routes. Foresight: Future of the Sea. Report. Government Office for Science, Gov.uk. pp39.

Melia, N., Haines, K., Hawkins, E. and Day, J. J. (2017) Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (8). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60

Santer, Benjamin D., Fyfe, John C., Pallotta, Giuliana, Flato, Gregory M., Meehl, Gerald A., England, Matthew H., Hawkins, Ed, Mann, Michael E., Painter, Jeffrey F., Bonfils, Céline, Cvijanovic, Ivana, Mears, Carl, Wentz, Frank J., Po-Chedley, Stephen, Fu, Qiang and Zou, Cheng-Zhi (2017) Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates. Nature Geoscience, 10 (7). pp. 478-485. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2973

Mora, Camilo, Dousset, Bénédicte, Caldwell, Iain R., Powell, Farrah E., Geronimo, Rollan C., Bielecki, Coral R., Counsell, Chelsie W. W., Dietrich, Bonnie S., Johnston, Emily T., Louis, Leo V., Lucas, Matthew P., McKenzie, Marie M., Shea, Alessandra G., Tseng, Han, Giambelluca, Thomas W., Leon, Lisa R., Hawkins, Ed and Trauernicht, Clay (2017) Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change, 7 (7). pp. 501-506. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322

Suckling, Emma B., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Eden, Jonathan M. and Hawkins, Ed (2017) An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, 48 (9). pp. 3115-3138. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3255-8

Lockwood, Mike, Owens, Mat, Hawkins, Ed, Jones, Gareth S. and Usoskin, Ilya (2017) Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age. Astronomy & Geophysics, 58 (2). 2.17-2.23. ISSN 1366-8781 doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atx057

Volpi, Danila, Guemas, Virginie, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Hawkins, Ed and Nichols, Nancy K. (2017) Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach. Climate Dynamics, 48 (5). pp. 1841-1853. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3176-6

Marotzke, Jochem, Jakob, Christian, Bony, Sandrine, Dirmeyer, Paul A., O'Gorman, Paul A., Hawkins, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Quéré, Corinne Le, Nowicki, Sophie, Paulavets, Katsia, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stevens, Bjorn and Tuma, Matthias (2017) Climate research must sharpen its view. Nature Climate Change, 7 (2). pp. 89-91. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3206

Shaffrey, Len C., Hodson, Daniel, Robson, Jon, Stevens, D. P., Hawkins, Ed, Polo, Irene, Stevens, I., Sutton, Rowan T., Lister, Grenville, Iwi, A., Smith, D. and Stephens, A. (2017) Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation. Climate Dynamics, 48 (1). pp. 297-311. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x

Schurer, Andrew P., Mann, Michael E., Hawkins, Ed, Tett, Simon F. B. and Hegerl, Gabriele C. (2017) Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals. Nature Climate Change, 7 (8). pp. 563-567. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3345

Frame, Dave, Joshi, Manoj, Hawkins, Ed, Harrington, Luke J. and de Roiste, Mairead (2017) Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates. Nature Climate Change, 7 (6). pp. 407-411. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297

2016

Richardson, Mark, Cowtan, Kevin, Hawkins, Ed and Stolpe, Martin B. (2016) Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth. Nature Climate Change, 6 (10). pp. 931-935. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3066

Melia, Nat, Haines, Keith and Hawkins, Ed (2016) Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (18). pp. 9720-9728. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315

Anderson, Thomas R., Hawkins, Ed and Jones, Philip D. (2016) CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models. Endeavour, 40 (3). pp. 178-187. ISSN 0160-9327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.endeavour.2016.07.002

Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan (2016) Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (6). pp. 963-980. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1

Day, Jonny J., Tietsche, Steffen, Collins, Mat, Goessling, Helge F., Guemas, Virginie, Guillory, Anabelle, Hurlin, William J., Ishii, Masayoshi, Keeley, Sarah P. E., Matei, Daniela, Msadek, Rym, Sigmond, Michael, Tatebe, Hiroaki and Hawkins, Ed (2016) The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (6). pp. 2255-2270. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016

Hawkins, Ed, Smith, Robin S., Gregory, Jonathan M. and Stainforth, David A. (2016) Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Climate Dynamics, 46 (11). pp. 3807-3819. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8

Harrington, Luke J., Frame, David J., Fischer, Erich M., Hawkins, Ed, Joshi, Manoj and Jones, Chris D. (2016) Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5). 055007. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007

Holmes, Caroline R., Woollings, Tim, Hawkins, Ed and de Vries, Hylke (2016) Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection. Journal of Climate, 29 (6). pp. 2221-2236. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1

Goessling, H. F., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Hawkins, E. and Jung, T. (2016) Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (4). pp. 1642-1650. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067232

Fyfe, John C., Meehl, Gerald A., England, Matthew H., Mann, Michael E., Santer, Benjamin D., Flato, Gregory M., Hawkins, Ed, Gillett, Nathan P., Xie, Shang-Ping, Kosaka, Yu and Swart, Neil C. (2016) Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nature Climate Change, 6 (3). pp. 224-228. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938

Hawkins, Ed, Tietsche, Steffen, Day, Jonathan J., Melia, Nathanael, Haines, Keith and Keeley, Sarah (2016) Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (695). pp. 672-683. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643

Tietsche, Steffen, Hawkins, Ed and Day, Jonathan J. (2016) Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate. Journal of Climate, 29 (1). pp. 331-346. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1

Guemas, Virginie, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward, Chevallier, Matthieu, Day, Jonathan J., Déqué, Michel, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Fučkar, Neven, Germe, Agathe, Hawkins, Ed, Keeley, Sarah, Koenigk, Torben, Salas y Mélia, David and Tietsche, Steffen (2016) A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (695). pp. 546-561. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2401

Good, Peter, Booth, Ben B. B., Chadwick, Robin, Hawkins, Ed, Jonko, Alexandra and Lowe, Jason Anthony (2016) Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming. Nature Communications, 7. 13667. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13667

2015

Eden, Jonathan, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Hawkins, Ed and Suckling, Emma B. (2015) A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction. Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (12). pp. 3947-3973. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

Melia, Nathaneal, Haines, Keith and Hawkins, Ed (2015) Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations. The Cryosphere, 9 (6). pp. 2237-2251. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015

Sutton, Rowan, Suckling, Emma and Hawkins, Ed (2015) What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373. 20140426. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0426

Allison, Lesley, Hawkins, Ed and Woollings, Tim (2015) An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, 44 (1-2). pp. 163-190. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2271-9

King, Andrew D., Donat, Markus G., Fischer, Erich M., Hawkins, Ed, Alexander, Lisa V., Karoly, David J., Dittus, Andrea J., Lewis, Sophie C. and Perkins, Sarah E. (2015) The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9). 094015. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015

Xie, Shang-Ping, Deser, Clara, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Collins, Matthew, Delworth, Thomas L., Hall, Alex, Hawkins, Ed, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Cassou, Christophe, Giannini, Alessandra and Watanabe, Masahiro (2015) Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5 (10). pp. 921-930. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2689

Cowtan, Kevin, Hausfather, Zeke, Hawkins, Ed, Jacobs, Peter, Mann, Michael E., Miller, Sonya K., Steinman, Byron A., Stolpe, Martin B. and Way, Robert G. (2015) Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (15). pp. 6526-6534. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064888

Swart, Neil C., Fyfe, John C., Hawkins, Ed, Kay, Jennifer E. and Jahn, Alexandra (2015) Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2). pp. 86-89. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2483

Hawkins, Ed, McNeall, Doug, Williams, Jonny, Stephenson, David and Carlson, Dave (2015) Graphics: scrap rainbow colour scales. Nature, 519 (7543). p. 291. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/519291d

Anderson, Bruce T., Lintner, Benjamin R., Langenbrunner, Baird, Neelin, J. David, Hawkins, Ed and Syktus, Jozef (2015) Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1190-1196. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062593

Usoskin, I. G., Arlt, R., Asvestari, E., Hawkins, Ed, Käpylä, M., Kovaltsov, G. A., Krivova, N., Lockwood, Mike, Mursula, K., O'Reilly, J., Owens, Mathew, Scott, Chris J., Sokoloff, D. D., Solanki, S. K., Soon, W. and Vaquero, J. M. (2015) The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 581. A95. ISSN 0004-6361 doi: https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201526652

2014

Fischer, E. M., Sedláček, J., Hawkins, Ed and Knutti, R. (2014) Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (23). pp. 8554-8562. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062018

Day, Jonny, Hawkins, Ed and Tietsche, Steffen (2014) Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill? Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (21). pp. 7566-7575. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061694

Hawkins, Ed, Joshi, Manoj and Frame, Dave (2014) Wetter then drier in some tropical areas. Nature Climate Change, 4 (8). pp. 646-647. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2299

Hawkins, Ed, Anderson, Bruce, Diffenbaugh, Noah, Mahlstein, Irina, Betts, Richard, Hegerl, Gabi, Joshi, Manoj, Knutti, Reto, McNeall, Doug, Solomon, Susan, Sutton, Rowan, Syktus, Jozef and Vecchi, Gabriel (2014) Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates. Nature, 511 (7507). E3-E5. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13523

Day, J. J., Tietsche, S. and Hawkins, E. (2014) Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: initialization month dependence. Journal of Climate, 27 (12). pp. 4371-4390. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1

Hawkins, Ed, Dong, Buwen, Robson, Jon, Sutton, Rowan and Smith, Doug (2014) The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 27 (8). pp. 2931-2947. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00473.1

Hawkins, Ed, Edwards, Tamsin and McNeall, Doug (2014) Pause for thought. Nature Climate Change, 4 (3). pp. 154-156. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2150

Meehl, Gerald A, Goddard, Lisa, Boer, George, Burgman, Robert, Branstator, Grant, Cassou, Christophe, Corti, Susanna, Danabasoglu, Gokham, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Hawkins, Ed, Karspeck, Alicia, Kimoto, Masahide, Kumar, Arun, Matei, Daniela, Mignot, Juliette, Msadek, Rym, Pohlmann, Holger, Rienecker, Michele, Rosati, Tony, Schneider, Edwin, Smith, Doug, Sutton, Rowan, Teng, Haiyan, Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Vecchi, Gabriel and Yeager, Stephen (2014) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (2). pp. 243-267. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1

Robson, Jon, Hodson, Dan, Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan (2014) Atlantic overturning in decline? Nature Geoscience, 7 (1). pp. 2-3. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2050

Tietsche, S., Day, J.J., Guemas, V., Hurlin, W J, Keeley, S.P.E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Collins, M. and Hawkins, E. (2014) Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (3). pp. 1035-1043. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058755

Wilby, R. L., Dawson, C. W., Murphy, C., O’Connor, P. and Hawkins, Ed (2014) The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications. Climate Research, 61 (3). pp. 259-276. ISSN 0936-577X doi: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01254

2013

Smith, Doug M., Scaife, Adam A., Boer, George J., Caian, Mihaela, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Guemas, Virginie, Hawkins, Ed, Hazeleger, Wilco, Hermanson, Leon, Ho, Chun Kit, Ishii, Masayoshi, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Kimoto, Masahide, Kirtman, Ben, Lean, Judith, Matei, Daniela, Merryfield, William J., Müller, Wolfgang A., Pohlmann, Holger, Rosati, Anthony, Wouters, Bert and Wyser, Klaus (2013) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (11-12). pp. 2875-2888. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Ho, Chun Kit, Hawkins, Ed, Shaffrey, Len, Broecker, Jochen, Hermanson, Leon, Murphy, James M., Smith, Doug M. and Eade, Rosie (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630

Hawkins, Ed and Jones, Phil D. (2013) On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (677). pp. 1961-1963. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2178

Ba, Jin, Keenlyside, Noel S., Park, Wonsun, Latif, Mojib, Hawkins, Ed and Ding, Hui (2013) A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 41 (7-8). pp. 2133-2144. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1633-4

Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, Rowan, Hawkins, Ed, Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I. and Delworth, T. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 245-272. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Challinor, Andrew J, Hawkins, Ed and Asseng, Senthold (2013) Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034016. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034016

Ho, Chun Kit, Hawkins, Ed, Shaffrey, Len and Underwood, Fiona M. (2013) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (3-4). pp. 917-935. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9

Hodson, Daniel L. R., Keeley, Sarah P. E., West, Alex, Ridley, Jeff, Hawkins, Ed and Hewitt, Helene T. (2013) Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections. Climate Dynamics, 40 (11-12). pp. 2849-2865. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z

Vermeulen, S. J., Challinor, A. J., Thornton, P. K., Campbell, B. M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J. M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Laderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K. J., Hawkins, Ed and Smith, D. R. (2013) Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (21). pp. 8357-8362. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219441110

Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, Ed, Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P. and Sexton, D. M. H. (2013) Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models. Earth System Dynamics, 4 (1). pp. 95-108. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013

Hawkins, Ed, Osborne, Tom M., Ho, Chun Kit and Challinor, Andrew J. (2013) Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170. pp. 19-31. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007

Hawkins, Ed, Fricker, Thomas E., Challinor, Andrew J., Ferro, Christopher A. T., Ho, Chun Kit and Osborne, Tom M. (2013) Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Global Change Biology, 19 (3). pp. 937-947. ISSN 1365-2486 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12069

van Oldenborgh, G. J., Doblas Reyes, F. J., Drijfhout, S. S. and Hawkins, Ed (2013) Reliability of regional climate model trends. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014055. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014055

Stott, Peter, Good, Peter, Jones, Gareth, Gillett, Nathan and Hawkins, Ed (2013) The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014024. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024

2012

Vecchi, Gabriel A., Msadek, Rym, Delworth, Thomas L., Dixon, Keith W., Guilyardi, Eric, Hawkins, Ed, Karspeck, Alicia R., Mignot, Juliette, Robson, Jon, Rosati, Anthony and Zhang, Rong (2012) Comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N”. Science, 338 (6107). p. 604. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1222566

Chalmers, Nicky, Highwood, Eleanor Jo, Hawkins, Ed, Sutton, Rowan T. and Wilcox, Laura Jenny (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18709. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052848

Hawkins, Ed and Vidale, Pier Luigi (2012) Meteorology: Counting the coming storms. Nature Climate Change, 2 (8). pp. 574-575. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1639

Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (1). L01702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050087

2011

Hawkins, Ed, Robson, Jon, Sutton, Rowan, Smith, Doug and Keenlyside, Noel (2011) Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12). pp. 2495-2509. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3

Joshi, Manoj, Hawkins, Ed, Sutton, Rowan, Lowe, Jason and Frame, Dave (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1 (8). pp. 407-412. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1261

Yip, S., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B. and Hawkins, E. (2011) A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 24 (17). pp. 4634-4643. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1

Hawkins, Ed (2011) Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of climate variability. Weather, 66 (7). pp. 175-179. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.761

Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan T. (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 407-418. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6

Hawkins, Ed, Smith, Robin S., Allison, Lesley C., Gregory, Jonathan M., Woollings, Tim J., Pohlmann, H. and de Cuevas, B. (2011) Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (10). L10605. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047208

Hawkins, Edward and Sutton, Rowan (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1

Ortega, Pablo, Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan (2011) Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM. Climate Dynamics, 37 (9-10). pp. 1771-1782. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1

2010

Poulter, Bebjamin, Hattermann, Fred, Hawkins, Ed, Zaehle, Sonke, Sitch, Sitch, Restrepo-Coupe, Natalie, Heyder , Ursula and Cramer, Wolfgang (2010) Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters. Global Change Biology, 16 (9). pp. 2476-2495. ISSN 1354-1013 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02157.x

Charlton-Perez, Andrew James, Hawkins, Edward, Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Kinnison, D. E., Akiyoshi, H., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Lamarque, J. F., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Yamashita, Y., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Marchand, M., Mancini, E., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shibata, K., Shepherd, Ted, Tian, W. and Waugh, D. W. (2010) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (19). pp. 9473-9486. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010

2009

Meehl, Gerald A., Goddard, Lisa, Murphy, James, Stouffer, Ronald J., Boer, George, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Dixon, Keith, Giorgetta, Marco A., Greene, Arthur M., Hawkins, Ed, Hegerl, Gabriele, Karoly, David, Keenlyside, Noel, Kimoto, Masahide, Kirtman, Ben, Navarra, Antonio, Pulwarty, Roger, Smith, Doug, Stammer, Detlef and Stockdale, Timothy (2009) Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (10). pp. 1467-1485. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1

Hawkins, Edward and Sutton, Rowan Timothy (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (8). pp. 1095-1107. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

Hawkins, Edward and Sutton, Rowan Timothy (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1

2008

Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan (2008) Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11). L11603. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034059

2007

Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan (2007) Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. Climate Dynamics, 29 (7-8). pp. 745-762. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8