2023

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Brohan, P., Burgess, S. N., Burt, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546, Compo, G. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5199-9633, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Haigh, I. D., Hersbach, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-7071, Kuijjer, K., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, McColl, C., Schurer, A. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9176-3622, Slivinski, L. and Williams, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481 (2023) Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23 (4). pp. 1465-1482. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023

Volonte, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Ackerley, D. (2023) Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting-jet activity from observations and model data. Weather. ISSN 1477-8696 (In Press)

Volonte, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Ackerley, D. (2023) Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 2: airstream analysis. Weather. ISSN 1477-8696 (In Press)

Gentile, E. S. and Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X (2023) Attribution of observed extreme marine wind speeds and associated hazards to midlatitude cyclone conveyor belt jets near the British Isles. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7999

2022

Gentile, E. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5145, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Lewis, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3581-6459 (2022) The sensitivity of probabilistic convective‐scale forecasts of an extratropical cyclone to atmosphere–ocean–wave coupling. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (743). pp. 685-710. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4225

2021

Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Hodges, K. I., Vautrey, J. L. and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2021) The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2 (4). pp. 1303-1324. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021

Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Ackerley, D. and Suri, D. (2021) Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters. Weather, 76 (11). pp. 369-373. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3889

Bland, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2706-2853, Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Methven, J. and Forbes, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3596-8287 (2021) Characterising extratropical near‐tropopause analysis humidity biases and their radiative effects on temperature forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.4150

Gentile, E. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5145, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Barlow, J. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9022-6833, Lewis, H. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3581-6459 and Edwards, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5784-3218 (2021) The impact of atmosphere–ocean–wave coupling on the near-surface wind speed in forecasts of extratropical cyclones. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 180. pp. 105-129. ISSN 0006-8314 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-021-00614-4

Flaounas, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9769-7817, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Teubler, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9107-7959 (2021) A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2 (1). pp. 255-279. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-255-2021

Flack, D., Clark, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Halliwell, C., Roberts, N., Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Plant, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022 and Lean, H. (2021) A physically-based stochastic boundary-layer perturbation scheme. Part II: perturbation growth within a super ensemble framework. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 78 (3). pp. 747-761. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0292.1

2020

Sánchez, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5069-6849, Methven, J., Gray, S. and Cullen, M. (2020) Linking rapid forecast error growth to diabatic processes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (732). pp. 3548-3569. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3861

Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O. and Williams, K. D. (2020) Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (728). pp. 1322-1350. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3739

Volonté, A., Clark, P. A. and Gray, S. L. (2020) Idealised simulations of cyclones with robust symmetrically-unstable sting jets. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (1). pp. 63-91. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-63-2020

2019

Clarke, S. J., Gray, S. and Roberts, N. M. (2019) Downstream influence of mesoscale convective systems: part 1, influence on forecast evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (724). pp. 2933-2952. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3593

Clarke, S. J., Gray, S. L. and Roberts, N. M. (2019) Downstream influence of mesoscale convective systems: part 2, influence on ensemble forecast skill and spread. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (724). pp. 2953-2972. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3613

Flack, D. L. A., Gray, S. L. and Plant, R. S. (2019) A simple ensemble approach for more robust process-based sensitivity analysis of case studies in convection-permitting models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (724). pp. 3089-3101. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3606

Dance, S. L., Ballard, S. P., Bannister, R. N., Clark, P., Cloke, H. L., Darlington, T., Flack, D. L. A., Gray, S. L., Hawkness-Smith, L., Husnoo, N., Illingworth, A. J., Kelly, G. A., Lean, H. W., Li, D., Nichols, N. K., Nicol, J. C., Oxley, A., Plant, R. S., Roberts, N. M., Roulstone, I., Simonin, D., Thompson, R. J. and Waller, J. A. (2019) Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project. Atmosphere, 10 (3). 125. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030125

Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martinez-Alvarado, O. and Williams, K. D. (2019) Upstream cyclone influence on the predictability of block onsets over the Euro-Atlantic region. Monthly Weather Review, 147 (4). pp. 1277-1296. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0226.1

2018

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Maddison, J., Gray, S. and Williams, K. (2018) Atmospheric blocking and upper-level Rossby wave forecast skill dependence on model configuration. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716). pp. 2165-2181. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3326

Schäfler, A., Craig, G., Wernli, H., Arbogast, P., Doyle, J. D., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Methven, J., Rivière, G., Ament, F., Boettcher, M., Bramberger, M., Cazenave, Q., Cotton, R., Crewell, S., Delanoë, J., Dörnbrack, A., Ehrlich, A., Ewald, F., Fix, A., Grams, C. M., Gray, S. L., Grob, H., Groß, S., Hagen, M., Harvey, B., Hirsch, L., Jacob, M., Kölling, T., Konow, H., Lemmerz, C., Lux, O., Magnusson, L., Mayer, B., Mech, M., Moore, R., Pelon, J., Quinting, J., Rahm, S., Rapp, M., Rautenhaus, M., Reitebuch, O., Reynolds, C. A., Sodemann, H., Spengler, T., Vaughan, G., Wendisch, M., Wirth, M., Witschas, B., Wolf, K. and Zinner, T. (2018) The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (8). pp. 1607-1637. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0003.1

Flaounas, E., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Gray, S. L., Rysman, J.-F. and Claud, C. (2018) Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt. Climate Dynamics, 50 (7-8). pp. 2935-2949. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3783-x

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Gray, S. L., Hart, N. C.G., Clark, P. A., Hodges, K. I. and Roberts, M. J. (2018) Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (4). 044002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae3a

Yano, J.-I., Ziemiański, M. Z., Cullen, M., Termonia, P., Onvlee, J., Bengtsson, L., Carrassi, A., Davy, R., Deluca, A., Gray, S., Homar, V., Köhler, M., Krichak, S., Michaelides, S., Phillips, V. T. J., Soares, P. M. M. and Wyszogrodzki, A. A. (2018) Scientific challenges of convective-scale numerical weather prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (4). pp. 699-710. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0125.1

Clark, P. A. and Gray, S. L. (2018) Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: a review. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (713). pp. 943-969. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3267

Volonté, A., Clark, P. A. and Gray, S. L. (2018) The role of mesoscale instabilities in the sting-jet dynamics of windstorm Tini. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (712). pp. 877-899. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3264

Flack, D. L. A., Gray, S. L., Plant, R. S., Lean, H. W. and Craig, G. C. (2018) Convective-scale perturbation growth across the spectrum of convective regimes. Monthly Weather Review, 146 (1). pp. 387-405. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-17-0024.1

2017

Saffin, L., Gray, S. L., Methven, J. and Williams, K. D. (2017) Processes maintaining tropopause sharpness in numerical models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122 (18). pp. 9611-9627. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026879

Harrison, G. and Gray, S. (2017) The weather's response to a solar eclipse. Astronomy and Geophysics, 58 (4). 4.11-4.16. ISSN 1468-4004 doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atx135

Hart, N. C.G., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2017) Sting-jet windstorms over the North Atlantic: climatology and contribution to extreme wind risk. Journal of Climate, 30 (14). pp. 5455-5471. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0791.1

Fairman, J. G., Schultz, D. M., Kirshbaum, D. J., Gray, S. L. and Barrett, A. I. (2017) Climatology of size, shape and intensity of precipitation features over Great Britain and Ireland. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1595-1615. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0222.1

Weijenborg, C., Chagnon, J. M., Friederichs, P., Gray, S. L. and Hense, A. (2017) Coherent evolution of potential vorticity anomalies associated with deep moist convection. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (704). pp. 1254-1267. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3000

Bell, R. J., Gray, S. L. and Jones, O. P. (2017) North Atlantic storm driving of extreme wave heights in the North Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (4). pp. 3253-3268. ISSN 21699275 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012501

Glinton, M. R., Gray, S. L., Chagnon, J. M. and Morcrette, C. J. (2017) Modulation of precipitation by conditional symmetric instability release. Atmospheric Research, 185. pp. 186-201. ISSN 0169-8059 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.013

2016

Fairman, J. G., Schultz, D. M., Kirshbaum, D. J., Gray, S. L. and Barrett, A. I. (2016) Climatology of banded precipitation over the contiguous United States. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (12). pp. 4553-4568. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0015.1

Wong, K. C., Tailleux, R. and Gray, S. L. (2016) The computation of reference state and APE production by diabatic processes in an idealised tropical cyclone. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (700). pp. 2646-2657. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2854

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Gray, S. L. and Methven, J. (2016) Diabatic processes and the evolution of two contrasting summer extratropical cyclones. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (9). pp. 3251-3276. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0395.1

Aplin, K. L., Scott, C. J. and Gray, S. L. (2016) Atmospheric changes from solar eclipses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374 (2077). 20150217. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0217 (themed issue: Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse)

Gray, S. L. and Harrison, R. G. (2016) Eclipse-induced wind changes over the British Isles on the 20 March 2015. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374 (2077). 20150224. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0224 (themed issue: Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse)

Barnard, L., Portas, A. M., Gray, S. L. and Harrison, R. G. (2016) The National Eclipse Weather Experiment: an assessment of citizen scientist weather observations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374 (2077). 20150220. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0220 (themed issue: Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse)

Flack, D. L. A., Plant, R. S., Gray, S. L., Lean, H. W., Keil, C. and Craig, G. C. (2016) Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (696). pp. 1541-1553. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2758

Saffin, L., Methven, J. and Gray, S. L. (2016) The non-conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (696). pp. 1265-1275. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2729

Barrett, A. I., Gray, S., Kirshbaum, D. J., Roberts, N. M., Schultz, D. M. and Fairman, J. G. (2016) The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (3). pp. 1093-1114. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0148.1

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Madonna, E., Gray, S. L. and Joos, H. (2016) A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (694). pp. 196-210. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2645

2015

Hart, N. C. G., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2015) Detection of coherent airstreams using cluster analysis: application to an extratropical cyclone. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (9). pp. 3518-3531. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00382.1

Gray, S. L. and Wernli, H. (2015) Dynamics and predictability of middle latitude weather systems and their higher and lower latitude interactions. In: Brunet, G., Jones, S. and Ruti, P. (eds.) Seamless prediction of the earth system: from minutes to months. WMO-No. 1156. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp. 77-99. ISBN 9789263111562

Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L. (2015) A diabatically-generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (6). pp. 2337-2347. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00092.1

Fairman, J. G., Schultz, D. M., Kirshbaum, D. J., Gray, S. L. and Barrett, A. I. (2015) A radar-based rainfall climatology of Great Britain and Ireland. Weather, 70 (5). pp. 153-158. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2486

Rhodes, R. I., Shaffrey, L. C. and Gray, S. L. (2015) Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1114-1120. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2418

Ludwig, P., Pinto, J. G., Hoepp, S. A., Fink, A. H. and Gray, S. L. (2015) Secondary cyclogenesis along an occluded front leading to damaging wind gusts: windstorm Kyrill, January 2007. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (4). pp. 1417-1437. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00304.1

Barrett, A. I., Gray, S. L., Kirshbaum, D. J., Roberts, N. M., Schultz, D. M. and Fairman Jr, J. G. (2015) Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective banding. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1101-1113. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2409 (Part B)

Vaughan, G., Methven, J., Anderson, D., Antonescu, B., Baker, L., Baker, T. P., Ballard, S. P., Bower, K. N., Brown, P. R. A., Chagnon, J., Choularton, T. W., Chylik, J., Connolly, P. J., Cook, P. A., Cotton, R. J., Crosier, J., Dearden, C., Dorsey, J. R., Frame, T. H. A., Gallagher, M. W., Goodliff, M., Gray, S. L., Harvey, B. J., Knippertz, P., Lean, H. W., Li, D., Lloyd, G., Martinez-Alvarado, O., Nicol, J., Norris, J., Öström, E., Owen, J., Parker, D. J., Plant, R. S., Renfrew, I. A., Roberts, N. M., Rosenberg, P., Rudd, A. C., Schultz, D. M., Taylor, J. P., Trzeciak, T., Tubbs, R., Vance, A. K., Van Leeuwen, P. J., Wellpott, A. and Woolley, A. (2015) Cloud banding and winds in intense European cyclones: results from the DIAMET project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (2). pp. 249-265. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00238.1

2014

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Baker, L. H., Gray, S. L., Methven, J. and Plant, R. S. (2014) Distinguishing the cold conveyor belt and sting jet air streams in an intense extratropical cyclone. Monthly Weather Review, 142 (8). pp. 2571-2595. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00348.1

Ludwig, P., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M. and Gray, S. L. (2014) The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (682). pp. 1729-1741. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2253

Elvidge, A. D., Renfrew, I. A., King, J. C., Orr, A., Lachlan-Cope, T. A., Weeks, M. and Gray, S. (2014) Foehn jets over the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (688). pp. 698-713. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2382

Holloway, C. E., Petch, J. C., Beare, R. J., Bechtold, P., Craig, G. C., Derbyshire, S. H., Donner, L. J., Field, P. R., Gray, S. L., Marsham, J. H., Parker, D. J., Plant, R. S., Roberts, N. M., Schultz, D. M., Stirling, A. J. and Woolnough, S. J. (2014) Understanding and representing atmospheric convection across scales: recommendations from the meeting held at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK, 28–30 January 2013. Atmospheric Science Letters, 15 (4). pp. 348-353. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.508

Baker, L. H., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2014) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 96-110. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131

Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G. and Chagnon, J. M. (2014) Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (8). pp. 2979-2987. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059282

Sweeney, J. K., Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L. (2014) A case study of sea breeze blocking regulated by sea surface temperature along the English south coast. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14 (9). pp. 4409-4418. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4409-2014

2013

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Joos, H., Chagnon, J., Boettcher, M., Gray, S., Plant, R. S., Methven, J. and Wernli, H. (2013) The dichotomous structure of the warm conveyor belt. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (683). pp. 1809-1824. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2276

Chagnon, J.M., Gray, S.L. and Methven, J. (2013) Diabatic processes modifying potential vorticity in a North Atlantic cyclone. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (674). pp. 1270-1282. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2037

Frame, T.H.A., Methven, J., Gray, S.L. and Ambaum, M.H.P. (2013) Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (10). pp. 2411-2416. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50454

Dacre, H. F. and Gray, S. L. (2013) Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (10). pp. 2322-2327. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50105

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Gray, S. L., Clark, P. A. and Baker, L. H. (2013) Objective detection of sting jets in low-resolution datasets. Meteorological Applications, 20 (1). pp. 41-55. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.297

Leoncini, G., Plant, R. S., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2013) Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (670). pp. 198-211. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1951

Cannon, D., Kirshbaum, D. J. and Gray, S. L. (2013) A mixed-phase bulk orographic precipitation model with embedded convection. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (683). pp. 1997-2012. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2269

2012

Gray, S. L. and Harrison, R. G. (2012) Diagnosing eclipse-induced wind changes. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 468 (2143). pp. 1839-1850. ISSN 1364-5021 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2012.0007

Martinez-Alvarado, O., Gray, S. L., Catto, J. L. and Clark, P. A. (2012) Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2). 024014. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024014

Done, J. M., Craig, G. C., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2012) Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (664). pp. 638-648. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.943

Cannon, D. J., Kirshbaum, D. J. and Gray, S. L. (2012) Under what conditions does embedded convection enhance orographic precipitation? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (663). pp. 391-406. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.926

2011

Irvine, E. A., Gray, S. L. and Methven, J. (2011) Targeted observations of a polar low in the Norwegian sea. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137. pp. 1688-1699. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.914 (Part A)

Gray, S. L., Martinez-Alvarado, O., Baker, L. H. and Clark, P. A. (2011) Conditional symmetric instability in sting-jet storms. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (659). pp. 1482-1500. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.859

Frame, T. H. A., Ambaum, M. H. P., Gray, S. L. J. and Methven, J. (2011) Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (658). pp. 1288-1297. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.829

Irvine, E. A., Gray, S. L., Methven, J. and Renfrew, I. A. (2011) Forecast impact of targeted observations: sensitivity to observation error and proximity to steep orography. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (1). pp. 69-78. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3459.1

2010

Martínez-Alvarado, O., Weidle, F. and Gray, S. L. (2010) Sting jets in simulations of a real cyclone by two mesoscale models. Monthly Weather Review, 138 (11). pp. 4054-4075. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3290.1

Irvine, E. A., Gray, S. L. and Methven, J. (2010) Can 4D-Var use dynamical information from targeted observations of a baroclinic structure? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136 (651). pp. 1396-1407. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.673

Lewis, M. W. and Gray, S. L. (2010) Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK. Atmospheric Research, 97 (1-2). pp. 194-213. ISSN 0169-8059 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.04.001

Sinclair, V., Gray, S. L. and Belcher, S. E. (2010) Controls on boundary layer ventilation: Boundary layer processes and large-scale dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 115. D11107. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012169

Leoncini, G., Plant, R. S., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2010) Perturbation growth at the convective scale for CSIP IOP18. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136 (648). pp. 653-670. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.587

Sinclair, V. A., Belcher, S. E. and Gray, S. L. (2010) Synoptic controls on boundary-layer characteristics. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 134 (3). 387-409 . ISSN 0006-8314 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-009-9455-6

Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L. (2010) A comparison of stratosphere-troposphere transport in convection-permitting and convection-parameterizing simulations of three mesoscale convective systems. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (D24). D24318. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014421

2009

Irvine, E. A., Gray, S. L., Methven, J., Renfrew, I. A., Bovis, K. and Swinbank, R. (2009) The impact of targeted observations made during the Greenland Flow Distortion Experiment. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135 (645). pp. 2012-2029. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.499

Bracegirdle, T. J. and Gray, S. L. (2009) The dynamics of a polar low assessed using potential vorticity inversion. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135 (641). pp. 880-893. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.411

Agusti-Panareda, A., Gray, S. L. and Belcher, S. E. (2009) On the dependence of boundary-layer ventilation on frontal type. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114. D05305. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010694

Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L. (2009) Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135 (643). pp. 1392-1408. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.468

Dacre, H. F. and Gray, S. L. (2009) The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones. Monthly Weather Review, 137 (1). pp. 99-115. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2491.1

2008

Bracegirdle, T. J. and Gray, S. L. (2008) An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic seas. International Journal of Climatology, 14 (28). pp. 1903-1919. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1686

Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L. (2008) Analysis of convectively-generated gravity waves in mesoscale model simulations and wind profiler observations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134 (632). pp. 663-676. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.239

Sinclair, V.A., Gray, S.L. and Belcher, S.E. (2008) Boundary-layer ventilation by baroclinic lifecycles. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134 (635). pp. 1409-1424. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.293

Renfrew, I.A., Petersen, G.N., Outten, S., Sproson, D., Moore, G.W.K., Hay, C., Ohigashi, T., Zhang, S., Kristjansson, J.E., Fore, I., Olafsson, H., Gray, S.L., Irvine, E. A., Bovis, K., Brown, P.R.A., Swinbank, R., Haine, T., Lawrence, A., Pickart, R.S., Shapiro, M. and Woolley, A. (2008) The Greenland flow distortion experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89 (9). pp. 1307-1324. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2508.1

Gray, S. L. and Dacre, H. F. (2008) The impact of deformation strain on the formation of banded clouds in idealized modeling experiments. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134 (633). pp. 859-874. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.262

2007

Dacre, H. F., Gray, S. L. and Belcher, S. E. (2007) A case study of boundary layer ventilation by convection and coastal processes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (D17). D17106. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007984

Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L. (2007) Stratosphere-troposphere transport in a numerical simulation of midlatitude convection. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (D6). DO6314. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007265

2006

Gray, S. L. and Dacre, H. F. (2006) Classifying dynamical forcing mechanisms using a climatology of extratropical cyclones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (617). pp. 1119-1137. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.69

Dacre, H. F. and Gray, S. L. (2006) Life-cycle simulations of shallow frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (620). pp. 2171-2190. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.238

Gray, S. L. (2006) Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111 (D17). ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006259

Done, J. M., Craig, G. C., Gray, S. L., Clark, P. A. and Gray, M. E. B. (2006) Mesoscale simulations of organized convection: importance of convective equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132. pp. 737-756. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.84

Gray, S. L. and Browning, K. A. (2006) Reply to comments by David M. Schultz on 'Cloud-resolving model simulations of multiply-banded frontal clouds' (October A, 2005, 131, 2617-2637). Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (619). pp. 2097-2099. ISSN 1477-870X

2005

Agusti-Panareda, A., Gray, S. L. and Methven, J. (2005) Numerical modeling study of boundary-layer ventilation by a cold front over Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110. D18304. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005555

Pizzamei, M., Gray, S. L. and Browning, K. A. (2005) Cloud resolving model simulations of multiply-banded frontal clouds. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131. pp. 2617-2637. ISSN 1477-870X

Agusti-Panareda, A., Gray, S. L., Craig, G. C. and Thorncroft, C. (2005) The extratropical transition of tropical cyclone Lili (1996) and its crucial contribution to a moderate extratropical development. Monthly Weather Review, 133 (6). pp. 1562-1573.

2004

Agusti-Panareda, A., Thorncroft, C. D., Craig, G. C. and Gray, S. L. (2004) The extratropical transition of hurricane Irene (1999): A potential-vorticity perspective. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 130 (598). pp. 1047-1074. ISSN 1477-870X

2003

Plant, R.S., Craig, G.C. and Gray, S.L. (2003) On a threefold classification of extratropical cyclogenesis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 129. pp. 2989-3012. ISSN 1477-870X

Gray, S.L. (2003) A case study of stratosphere to troposphere transport: The role of convective transport and the sensitivity to model resolution. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108 (art. no.-4). doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003317.

2001

Gray, S. L. and Thorpe, A. (2001) Parcel theory in three dimensions and the calculation of SCAPE. Monthly Weather Review, 129 (7). pp. 1656-1672. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1656:PTITDA>2.0.CO;2

Gray, S. L. and Haine, T. W. N. (2001) Constraining a North Atlantic Ocean general circulation model with chlorofluorocarbon observations. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 31 (5). pp. 1157-1181. ISSN 0022-3670 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<1157:CANAOG>2.0.CO;2

Haine, T. W. N. and Gray, S. L. (2001) Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106 (C7). pp. 13861-13878. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JC000036

2000

Gray, S. L. and Thorpe, A. (2000) Potential energy for slantwise parcel motion. Atmospheric Science Letters, 1 (1). pp. 56-61. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1006/asle.2000.0006

1998

Gray, S. L. (1998) Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 124 (551). pp. 2357-2375. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712455109

Gray, S. L. and Craig, C. G. (1998) A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 124 (547). pp. 919-947. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712454713

1996

Craig, G. C. and Gray, S. L. (1996) CISK or WISHE as the mechanism for tropical cyclone intensification. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 53 (23). pp. 3528-3540. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3528:COWATM>2.0.CO;2