The project started in November 2020. The field campaign is planned for August 2022 which will collect the primary data that will be analysed in conjunction with numerical model experiments. The initial scientific findings are not anticipated until 2023 with more detailed scientific investigation continuing until the end of the project funding. International research and scientific publications are expected to continue on the basis of the project data legacy for many years to come.
Below are recent publications by the project team.
Authors/Creators/Editors Reading ID matches any of "90000334 90000250 90003964 90000737 90004991 90005015 90008916" AND Status matches any of "Published"
1.
Gainford, A. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2484-8316, Frame, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Neal, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2678-6016, Porson, A. N. and Milan, M.
(2025)
Assessing the value of clustering convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts.
Meteorological Applications, 32 (6).
e70139.
ISSN 1350-4827
doi: 10.1002/met.70139
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2484-8316, Frame, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Neal, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2678-6016, Porson, A. N. and Milan, M.
(2025)
Assessing the value of clustering convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts.
Meteorological Applications, 32 (6).
e70139.
ISSN 1350-4827
doi: 10.1002/met.70139
![[thumbnail of Main text]](https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/style/images/fileicons/text.png "Main text")
2.
Brown, N. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6222-8850, Naveira Garabato, A. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6071-605X, Bacon, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2471-9373, Aksenov, Y., Tsubouchi, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6774-8847, Green, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5090-1040, Lincoln, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0314-3109, Rippeth, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9286-0176 and Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X
(2025)
The Arctic Ocean double estuary: quantification and forcing mechanisms.
AGU Advances, 6 (6).
e2024AV001529.
ISSN 2576-604X
doi: 10.1029/2024av001529
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6222-8850, Naveira Garabato, A. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6071-605X, Bacon, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2471-9373, Aksenov, Y., Tsubouchi, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6774-8847, Green, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5090-1040, Lincoln, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0314-3109, Rippeth, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9286-0176 and Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X
(2025)
The Arctic Ocean double estuary: quantification and forcing mechanisms.
AGU Advances, 6 (6).
e2024AV001529.
ISSN 2576-604X
doi: 10.1029/2024av001529
Preview
3.
Barrell, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0494-9884, Renfrew, I. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9379-8215, Bennett, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7773-7049, Elvidge, A. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7099-902X, Weiss, A., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Blockley, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0489-4238, Copsey, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9706-9033, Graham, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6392-8111 and Krumpen, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6234-8756
(2025)
Rapid summertime sea ice melt in a coupled numerical weather prediction system.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17 (10).
e2025MS004945.
ISSN 1942-2466
doi: 10.1029/2025ms004945
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0494-9884, Renfrew, I. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9379-8215, Bennett, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7773-7049, Elvidge, A. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7099-902X, Weiss, A., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Blockley, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0489-4238, Copsey, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9706-9033, Graham, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6392-8111 and Krumpen, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6234-8756
(2025)
Rapid summertime sea ice melt in a coupled numerical weather prediction system.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17 (10).
e2025MS004945.
ISSN 1942-2466
doi: 10.1029/2025ms004945
Preview
4.
Yano, J.‐I. and Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379
(2025)
Co‐development of a cyclone family and an atmospheric river over the North Atlantic: a synoptic evolution with associated moisture transports.
Weather.
ISSN 1477-8696
doi: 10.1002/wea.7761
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379
(2025)
Co‐development of a cyclone family and an atmospheric river over the North Atlantic: a synoptic evolution with associated moisture transports.
Weather.
ISSN 1477-8696
doi: 10.1002/wea.7761
Preview
5.
Moreno‐Ibáñez, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5703-4699, Cassano, J. J., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Seefeldt, M.
(2025)
Sensitivity of the representation of polar lows to typical climate model resolutions.
Atmospheric Science Letters, 26 (9).
e1319.
ISSN 1530-261X
doi: 10.1002/asl.1319
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5703-4699, Cassano, J. J., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Seefeldt, M.
(2025)
Sensitivity of the representation of polar lows to typical climate model resolutions.
Atmospheric Science Letters, 26 (9).
e1319.
ISSN 1530-261X
doi: 10.1002/asl.1319
Preview
6.
Sheng, C., Hoskins, B., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Wu, G., Liu, Y. and He, B.
(2025)
Influence of potential vorticity generated by diabatic cooling over the Tibetan Plateau on the surface air temperature of Eastern China during Boreal Winter.
Journal of Climate, 38 (16).
pp. 4083-4095.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0732.1
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Wu, G., Liu, Y. and He, B.
(2025)
Influence of potential vorticity generated by diabatic cooling over the Tibetan Plateau on the surface air temperature of Eastern China during Boreal Winter.
Journal of Climate, 38 (16).
pp. 4083-4095.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0732.1
Preview
7.
Maciel-Tiburcio, A., Martínez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Rodríguez-Hernández, O.
(2025)
Evaluating bias correction methods for wind power estimation using numerical meteorological models.
Renewable Energy, 247.
122927.
ISSN 0960-1481
doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.122927
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Rodríguez-Hernández, O.
(2025)
Evaluating bias correction methods for wind power estimation using numerical meteorological models.
Renewable Energy, 247.
122927.
ISSN 0960-1481
doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.122927
Preview
8.
Frew, R. C., Bateson, A. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-4161, Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X and Schröder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306
(2025)
Toward a marginal Arctic sea ice cover: changes to freezing, melting and dynamics.
The Cryosphere, 19 (6).
pp. 2115-2132.
ISSN 1994-0424
doi: 10.5194/tc-19-2115-2025
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-4161, Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X and Schröder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306
(2025)
Toward a marginal Arctic sea ice cover: changes to freezing, melting and dynamics.
The Cryosphere, 19 (6).
pp. 2115-2132.
ISSN 1994-0424
doi: 10.5194/tc-19-2115-2025
Preview
9.
Lichtenegger, T., Schaffer, A., Ossó, A., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Maraun, D.
(2025)
A cold frontal life cycle climatology and front–cyclone relationships over the North Atlantic and Europe.
International Journal of Climatology, 45 (8).
e8830.
ISSN 1097-0088
doi: 10.1002/joc.8830
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Maraun, D.
(2025)
A cold frontal life cycle climatology and front–cyclone relationships over the North Atlantic and Europe.
International Journal of Climatology, 45 (8).
e8830.
ISSN 1097-0088
doi: 10.1002/joc.8830
Preview
10.
Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Magnusson, L., Majumdar, S. J., Methven, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Pappenberger, F.
(2025)
Skill and consistency of ECMWF forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis.
Weather and Forecasting, 40 (5).
pp. 703-717.
ISSN 0882-8156
doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-24-0115.1
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Magnusson, L., Majumdar, S. J., Methven, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Pappenberger, F.
(2025)
Skill and consistency of ECMWF forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis.
Weather and Forecasting, 40 (5).
pp. 703-717.
ISSN 0882-8156
doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-24-0115.1
Preview
11.
Houtman, H. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5957-5756, Teixeira, M. A. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1205-3233, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Sheridan, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0408-1501 and Vosper, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1117-4351
(2025)
Evaluating trapped lee‐wave characteristics over the UK and Ireland in convection‐permitting model forecasts using satellite imagery.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151 (767).
e4921.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4921
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5957-5756, Teixeira, M. A. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1205-3233, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Sheridan, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0408-1501 and Vosper, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1117-4351
(2025)
Evaluating trapped lee‐wave characteristics over the UK and Ireland in convection‐permitting model forecasts using satellite imagery.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151 (767).
e4921.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4921
Preview
12.
Croad, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5124-4860, Keeley, S. P. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8046-765X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X
(2025)
Examining the sensitivity of ECMWF IFS weather forecasts to sea‐ice coupling for the summer‐time Arctic and cyclones.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151 (766).
e4899.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4899
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5124-4860, Keeley, S. P. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8046-765X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X
(2025)
Examining the sensitivity of ECMWF IFS weather forecasts to sea‐ice coupling for the summer‐time Arctic and cyclones.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151 (766).
e4899.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4899
Preview
13.
Crook, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1724-1479, Hardy, S., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Schwendike, J., Yik, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1128-7425 and Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477
(2025)
The structure of Borneo vortices and their relationship with cold surges, the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151 (766).
e4905.
ISSN 0035-9009
doi: 10.1002/qj.4905
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1724-1479, Hardy, S., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Schwendike, J., Yik, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1128-7425 and Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477
(2025)
The structure of Borneo vortices and their relationship with cold surges, the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151 (766).
e4905.
ISSN 0035-9009
doi: 10.1002/qj.4905
Preview
14.
Archibald, A. T., Sinha, B., Russo, M. R., Matthews, E., Squires, F. A., Abraham, N. L., Bauguitte, S. J.-B., Bannan, T. J., Bell, T. G., Berry, D., Carpenter, L. J., Coe, H., Coward, A., Edwards, P., Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Heard, D., Hopkins, J., Keeble, J., Kent, E. C., King, B., Lawrence, I. R., Lee, J., Macintosh, C. R., Megann, A., Moat, B. I., Read, K., Reed, C., Roberts, M. J., Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Schroeder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Smyth, T. J., Temple, L., Thamban, N., Whalley, L., Williams, S., Wu, H. and Yang, M.
(2025)
Data supporting the North Atlantic Climate System
Integrated Study (ACSIS) programme, including
atmospheric composition; oceanographic and sea-ice
observations (2016–2022); and output from ocean,
atmosphere, land, and sea-ice models (1950–2050).
Earth System Science Data, 17 (1).
pp. 135-164.
ISSN 1866-3516
doi: 10.5194/essd-17-135-2025
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Heard, D., Hopkins, J., Keeble, J., Kent, E. C., King, B., Lawrence, I. R., Lee, J., Macintosh, C. R., Megann, A., Moat, B. I., Read, K., Reed, C., Roberts, M. J., Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Schroeder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Smyth, T. J., Temple, L., Thamban, N., Whalley, L., Williams, S., Wu, H. and Yang, M.
(2025)
Data supporting the North Atlantic Climate System
Integrated Study (ACSIS) programme, including
atmospheric composition; oceanographic and sea-ice
observations (2016–2022); and output from ocean,
atmosphere, land, and sea-ice models (1950–2050).
Earth System Science Data, 17 (1).
pp. 135-164.
ISSN 1866-3516
doi: 10.5194/essd-17-135-2025
Preview
15.
Chevuturi, A., Oltmanns, M., Tanguy, M., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Svensson, C. and Hannaford, J.
(2025)
Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts.
Communications Earth & Environment, 6.
437.
ISSN 2662-4435
doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Svensson, C. and Hannaford, J.
(2025)
Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts.
Communications Earth & Environment, 6.
437.
ISSN 2662-4435
doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1
Preview
16.
Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Aksenov, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Colfescu, I., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Hirschi, J., Josey, S., Lu, H., Mecking, J., Oltmanns, M., Osprey, S., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Rynders, S., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Sinha, B., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Weisheimer, A.
(2025)
Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability.
Climate Dynamics, 63.
113.
ISSN 1432-0894
doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Aksenov, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Colfescu, I., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Hirschi, J., Josey, S., Lu, H., Mecking, J., Oltmanns, M., Osprey, S., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Rynders, S., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Sinha, B., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Weisheimer, A.
(2025)
Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability.
Climate Dynamics, 63.
113.
ISSN 1432-0894
doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
Preview
17.
Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181
(2024)
A global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones.
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5 (4).
pp. 1523-1544.
ISSN 2698-4024
doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181
(2024)
A global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones.
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5 (4).
pp. 1523-1544.
ISSN 2698-4024
doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024
Preview
18.
Bland, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2706-2853, Forbes, R., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872
(2024)
Processes controlling extratropical near-tropopause humidity and temperature in the ECMWF global weather forecast model.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (765).
pp. 5356-5372.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4873
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2706-2853, Forbes, R., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872
(2024)
Processes controlling extratropical near-tropopause humidity and temperature in the ECMWF global weather forecast model.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (765).
pp. 5356-5372.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4873
Preview
19.
Deoras, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5407-6520, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X and Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578
(2024)
The role of midlatitude dry air during the withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (765).
pp. 5094-5112.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4859
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5407-6520, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X and Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578
(2024)
The role of midlatitude dry air during the withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (765).
pp. 5094-5112.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: 10.1002/qj.4859
Preview
20.
Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X
(2024)
Extreme low‐level wind jets in Storm Ciarán.
Weather, 79 (12).
pp. 384-389.
ISSN 1477-8696
doi: 10.1002/wea.7620
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X
(2024)
Extreme low‐level wind jets in Storm Ciarán.
Weather, 79 (12).
pp. 384-389.
ISSN 1477-8696
doi: 10.1002/wea.7620
Preview