Our Publications

The project started in November 2020. The field campaign is planned for August 2022 which will collect the primary data that will be analysed in conjunction with numerical model experiments. The initial scientific findings are not anticipated until 2023 with more detailed scientific investigation continuing until the end of the project funding. International research and scientific publications are expected to continue on the basis of the project data legacy for many years to come.

Below are recent publications by the project team.

Authors/Creators/Editors Reading ID matches any of "90000334 90000250 90003964 90000737 90004991 90005015 90008916" AND Status matches any of "Published" - CentAUR

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Authors/Creators/Editors Reading ID matches any of "90000334 90000250 90003964 90000737 90004991 90005015 90008916" AND Status matches any of "Published"

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1. Gainford, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2484-8316, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Frame, T. H. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Porson, A. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5023-8522 and Milan, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9309-5365 (2024) Improvements in the spread–skill relationship of precipitation in a convective‐scale ensemble through blending. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4754
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2. O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Drouard, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Ambaum, M. H. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2024) The role of storm-track dynamics in the intraseasonal variability of the winter ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (761). pp. 2069-2086. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4691
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3. Wolf, G., Ferrett, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4726-847X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Frame, T. H. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2024) Comparison of probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation for a global and convection-permitting ensemble and hybrid statistical-dynamical method based on equatorial wave information. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4627
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4. Diamond, R., Schroeder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Sime, L. C., Ridley, J. and Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X (2024) The significance of the melt-pond scheme in a CMIP6 global climate model. Journal of Climate, 37 (1). pp. 249-268. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-22-0902.1
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5. Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Methven, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Pappenberger, F. (2024) Jumpiness in ensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Weather and Forecasting, 39 (1). pp. 203-215. ISSN 1520-0434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0113.1
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6. Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Driscoll, S., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Harvey, N. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0973-5794, Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Lee, R. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1946-5559, Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Vandaele, R. and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X (2024) Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7. 93. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00638-w
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7. Craig, P. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599, Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2023) A Lagrangian perspective on the Atlantic and Pacific precipitation-evaporation asymmetry. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (24). e2023JD039087. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039087
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8. Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Hodges, K. I. (2023) Precipitation efficiencies in a climatology of Southern Ocean extratropical cyclones. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (24). e2023JD039239. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039239
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9. Dunion, J. P., Davis, C., Titley, H., Greatrex, H., Yamaguchi, M., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Ashrit, R., Wang, Z., Yu, H., Fontan, A.-C., Brammer, A., Kucas, M., Ford, M., Papin, P., Prates, F., Mooney, C., Kruczkiewicz, A., Chakraborty, P., Burton, A., DeMaria, M., Torn, R. and Vigh, J. L. (2023) Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic forecast products. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. ISSN 2589-3025 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.003
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10. Croad, H. L., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Keeley, S. P. E., Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X and Hodges, K. I. (2023) A climatology of summer-time Arctic cyclones using a modified phase space. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (22). e2023GL105993. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105993
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11. Suitters, C. C., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Hodges, K. I., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Ackerley, D. (2023) Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4 (3). pp. 683-700. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023
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12. Ferrett, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4726-847X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477, Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989 and Wolf, G. (2023) Hybrid dynamical-statistical forecasts of the risk of rainfall in South East Asia dependent on equatorial waves. Monthly Weather Review, 151 (8). pp. 2139-2152. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0300.1
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13. Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (10). pp. 4424-4441. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095
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14. Croad, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5124-4860, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Keeley, S. P. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8046-765X and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X (2023) The role of boundary layer processes in summer-time Arctic cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4 (3). pp. 617-638. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-617-2023
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15. Flaounas, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9769-7817, Aragão, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2843-505X, Bernini, L., Dafis, S., Doiteau, B., Flocas, H., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Karwat, A., Kouroutzoglou, J., Lionello, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0779-5681, Miglietta, M. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2898-1595, Pantillon, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7205-4428, Pasquero, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2211-7977, Patlakas, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3572-6851, Picornell, M. Á., Porcù, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1283-7679, Priestley, M. D. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5488-3959, Reale, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1004-8203, Roberts, M. J., Saaroni, H., Sandler, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4124-0209, Scoccimarro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7987-4744, Sprenger, M. and Ziv, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3053-1374 (2023) A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4 (3). pp. 639-661. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023
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16. Ross, A. N. and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2023) Introduction to the QJ@150 anniversary collection. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149 (754). pp. 1541-1545. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4504
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17. Williams, N., Byrne, N., Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Van Leeuwen, P. J., Bannister, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Schroeder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Ridout, A. and Nerger, L. (2023) The effects of assimilating a sub-grid scale sea ice thickness distribution in a new Arctic sea ice data assimilation system. The Cryosphere, 17 (6). pp. 2509-2532. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2509-2023
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18. Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Martínez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Ackerley, D. (2023) Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 2: airstream analysis. Weather. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4401
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19. Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Martínez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Ackerley, D. (2023) Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting-jet activity from observations and model data. Weather. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4402
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20. Gentile, E. S. and Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X (2023) Attribution of observed extreme marine wind speeds and associated hazards to midlatitude cyclone conveyor belt jets near the British Isles. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (6). pp. 2735-2753. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7999
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