The project started in November 2020. The field campaign is planned for August 2022 which will collect the primary data that will be analysed in conjunction with numerical model experiments. The initial scientific findings are not anticipated until 2023 with more detailed scientific investigation continuing until the end of the project funding. International research and scientific publications are expected to continue on the basis of the project data legacy for many years to come.
Below are recent publications by the project team.
Authors/Creators/Editors Reading ID matches any of "90000334 90000250 90003964 90000737 90004991 90005015 90008916" AND Status matches any of "Published"
1.
Goswami, P., Berthou, S., Shepherd, T. G. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Mahmood, S., Castillo, J. M., Péquignet, A.-C., Park, Y.-J., Worsfold, M., Rodrigues, R. and Balmaseda, M. A.
(2026)
Marine heatwave amplifies extreme multi-hazards of extratropical cyclone Babet.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 26 (7).
pp. 3213-3230.
ISSN 1684-9981
doi: 10.5194/nhess-26-3213-2026
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Mahmood, S., Castillo, J. M., Péquignet, A.-C., Park, Y.-J., Worsfold, M., Rodrigues, R. and Balmaseda, M. A.
(2026)
Marine heatwave amplifies extreme multi-hazards of extratropical cyclone Babet.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 26 (7).
pp. 3213-3230.
ISSN 1684-9981
doi: 10.5194/nhess-26-3213-2026
Preview
![[thumbnail of NHESS_manuscript_01_06_26.pdf]](https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/style/images/fileicons/text.png "NHESS_manuscript_01_06_26.pdf")
2.
Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Joos, H., Lee, M. H. F., Forbes, R. and Bouffet-Klein, R.
(2026)
Identifying the diabatic processes driving the evolution of a sting jet: the case of Storm Ciarán.
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 7 (3).
pp. 1241-1264.
ISSN 2698-4016
doi: 10.5194/wcd-7-1241-2026
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Joos, H., Lee, M. H. F., Forbes, R. and Bouffet-Klein, R.
(2026)
Identifying the diabatic processes driving the evolution of a sting jet: the case of Storm Ciarán.
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 7 (3).
pp. 1241-1264.
ISSN 2698-4016
doi: 10.5194/wcd-7-1241-2026
Preview
3.
Sheng, C., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, He, B., Wu, G., Zhang, P. and Liu, Y.
(2026)
Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability.
Science Advances, 12 (28).
eaee8136.
ISSN 2375-2548
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aee8136
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, He, B., Wu, G., Zhang, P. and Liu, Y.
(2026)
Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability.
Science Advances, 12 (28).
eaee8136.
ISSN 2375-2548
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aee8136
Preview
4.
Sime, L. C., Diamond, R., Stepanek, C., Brierley, C., Schroeder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Kageyama, M., Pollock, M., Malmierca-Valle, I., Blockley, E., West, A., Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Ridley, J., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Shi, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Macarewich, S. I., Buarque, S. R., Zhang, Q., LeGrande, A., Zheng, W., Jiang, D., Morozova, P., Guo, C., Zhang, Z., Yeung, N., Menviel, L., Narayanasetti, S., Yoshimori, M., Reeves, O. and Zhao, A.
(2026)
A sea ice free Arctic: CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track abrupt-127k
experimental protocol and motivation.
Geoscientific Model Development, 19 (13).
pp. 5881-5905.
ISSN 1991-9603
doi: 10.5194/gmd-19-5881-2026
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Kageyama, M., Pollock, M., Malmierca-Valle, I., Blockley, E., West, A., Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Ridley, J., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Shi, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Macarewich, S. I., Buarque, S. R., Zhang, Q., LeGrande, A., Zheng, W., Jiang, D., Morozova, P., Guo, C., Zhang, Z., Yeung, N., Menviel, L., Narayanasetti, S., Yoshimori, M., Reeves, O. and Zhao, A.
(2026)
A sea ice free Arctic: CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track abrupt-127k
experimental protocol and motivation.
Geoscientific Model Development, 19 (13).
pp. 5881-5905.
ISSN 1991-9603
doi: 10.5194/gmd-19-5881-2026
Preview
5.
Gentile, E. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5145, Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Tomassini, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3361-7384, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379
(2026)
Global diurnal precipitation cycle in the AI model GraphCast and a 5‐km unified model: challenges and opportunities.
Geophysical Research Letters, 53 (9).
e2025GL120961.
ISSN 1944-8007
doi: 10.1029/2025GL120961
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5145, Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Tomassini, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3361-7384, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379
(2026)
Global diurnal precipitation cycle in the AI model GraphCast and a 5‐km unified model: challenges and opportunities.
Geophysical Research Letters, 53 (9).
e2025GL120961.
ISSN 1944-8007
doi: 10.1029/2025GL120961
Preview
6.
Wood, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3381-3266, Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Rodwell, M.
(2026)
How consistently do ensemble prediction systems represent the growth of atmospheric uncertainty?
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
ISSN 0035-9009
doi: 10.1002/qj.70168
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3381-3266, Gray, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Rodwell, M.
(2026)
How consistently do ensemble prediction systems represent the growth of atmospheric uncertainty?
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
ISSN 0035-9009
doi: 10.1002/qj.70168
Preview
7.
Deoras, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5407-6520, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578
(2026)
The role of dry intrusions in breaks of the Indian summer monsoon.
Journal of Climate, 39 (5).
pp. 1237-1250.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0004.1
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5407-6520, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578
(2026)
The role of dry intrusions in breaks of the Indian summer monsoon.
Journal of Climate, 39 (5).
pp. 1237-1250.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0004.1
Preview
Preview
8.
Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Driscoll, S., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Harvey, N. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0973-5794, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X
(2026)
Northern hemisphere midlatitude cyclone intensity biases in machine learning weather prediction models.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 107 (1).
E208-E221.
ISSN 1520-0477
doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0129.1
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Driscoll, S., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Harvey, N. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0973-5794, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X
(2026)
Northern hemisphere midlatitude cyclone intensity biases in machine learning weather prediction models.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 107 (1).
E208-E221.
ISSN 1520-0477
doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0129.1
Preview
9.
McGetrick, S., Lu, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9485-5082, Muszynski, G., Martínez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Osman, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5636-698X, Mattingly, K. and Galea, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6180-350X
(2026)
A deep learning approach to detecting atmospheric rivers in the Arctic.
Atmosphere, 17 (1).
61.
ISSN 2073-4433
doi: 10.3390/atmos17010061
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9485-5082, Muszynski, G., Martínez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Osman, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5636-698X, Mattingly, K. and Galea, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6180-350X
(2026)
A deep learning approach to detecting atmospheric rivers in the Arctic.
Atmosphere, 17 (1).
61.
ISSN 2073-4433
doi: 10.3390/atmos17010061
Preview
10.
Deoras, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5407-6520, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Lekshmi, S., Birch, C. E., Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493
(2026)
Anatomy of moist heatwaves in India during the summer monsoon season.
Climate Dynamics, 64 (3).
103.
ISSN 1432-0894
doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-08023-w
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5407-6520, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Lekshmi, S., Birch, C. E., Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493
(2026)
Anatomy of moist heatwaves in India during the summer monsoon season.
Climate Dynamics, 64 (3).
103.
ISSN 1432-0894
doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-08023-w
Preview
11.
Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Haigh, I. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9722-3061, Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876
(2025)
High‐impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for risk assessment in the UK.
Earth's Future, 13 (12).
e2025EF006946.
ISSN 2328-4277
doi: 10.1029/2025EF006946
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Haigh, I. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9722-3061, Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876
(2025)
High‐impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for risk assessment in the UK.
Earth's Future, 13 (12).
e2025EF006946.
ISSN 2328-4277
doi: 10.1029/2025EF006946
Preview
12.
Brown, N. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6222-8850, Naveira Garabato, A. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6071-605X, Bacon, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2471-9373, Aksenov, Y., Tsubouchi, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6774-8847, Green, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5090-1040, Lincoln, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0314-3109, Rippeth, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9286-0176 and Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X
(2025)
The Arctic Ocean double estuary: quantification and forcing mechanisms.
AGU Advances, 6 (6).
e2024AV001529.
ISSN 2576-604X
doi: 10.1029/2024av001529
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6222-8850, Naveira Garabato, A. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6071-605X, Bacon, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2471-9373, Aksenov, Y., Tsubouchi, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6774-8847, Green, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5090-1040, Lincoln, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0314-3109, Rippeth, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9286-0176 and Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X
(2025)
The Arctic Ocean double estuary: quantification and forcing mechanisms.
AGU Advances, 6 (6).
e2024AV001529.
ISSN 2576-604X
doi: 10.1029/2024av001529
Preview
13.
Gainford, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2484-8316, Frame, T. H. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Neal, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2678-6016, Porson, A. N. and Milan, M.
(2025)
Assessing the value of clustering convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts.
Meteorological Applications, 32 (6).
e70139.
ISSN 1469-8080
doi: 10.1002/met.70139
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2484-8316, Frame, T. H. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Neal, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2678-6016, Porson, A. N. and Milan, M.
(2025)
Assessing the value of clustering convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts.
Meteorological Applications, 32 (6).
e70139.
ISSN 1469-8080
doi: 10.1002/met.70139
Preview
Preview
14.
Yano, J.‐I. and Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379
(2025)
Co‐development of a cyclone family and an atmospheric river over the North Atlantic: a synoptic evolution with associated moisture transports.
Weather, 80 (11).
pp. 376-386.
ISSN 1477-8696
doi: 10.1002/wea.7761
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379
(2025)
Co‐development of a cyclone family and an atmospheric river over the North Atlantic: a synoptic evolution with associated moisture transports.
Weather, 80 (11).
pp. 376-386.
ISSN 1477-8696
doi: 10.1002/wea.7761
Preview
15.
Barrell, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0494-9884, Renfrew, I. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9379-8215, Bennett, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7773-7049, Elvidge, A. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7099-902X, Weiss, A., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Blockley, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0489-4238, Copsey, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9706-9033, Graham, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6392-8111 and Krumpen, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6234-8756
(2025)
Rapid summertime sea ice melt in a coupled numerical weather prediction system.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17 (10).
e2025MS004945.
ISSN 1942-2466
doi: 10.1029/2025ms004945
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0494-9884, Renfrew, I. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9379-8215, Bennett, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7773-7049, Elvidge, A. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7099-902X, Weiss, A., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Blockley, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0489-4238, Copsey, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9706-9033, Graham, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6392-8111 and Krumpen, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6234-8756
(2025)
Rapid summertime sea ice melt in a coupled numerical weather prediction system.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17 (10).
e2025MS004945.
ISSN 1942-2466
doi: 10.1029/2025ms004945
Preview
16.
Moreno‐Ibáñez, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5703-4699, Cassano, J. J., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Seefeldt, M.
(2025)
Sensitivity of the representation of polar lows to typical climate model resolutions.
Atmospheric Science Letters, 26 (9).
e1319.
ISSN 1530-261X
doi: 10.1002/asl.1319
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5703-4699, Cassano, J. J., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X and Seefeldt, M.
(2025)
Sensitivity of the representation of polar lows to typical climate model resolutions.
Atmospheric Science Letters, 26 (9).
e1319.
ISSN 1530-261X
doi: 10.1002/asl.1319
Preview
17.
Sheng, C., Hoskins, B., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Wu, G., Liu, Y. and He, B.
(2025)
Influence of potential vorticity generated by diabatic cooling over the Tibetan Plateau on the surface air temperature of Eastern China during Boreal Winter.
Journal of Climate, 38 (16).
pp. 4083-4095.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0732.1
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Wu, G., Liu, Y. and He, B.
(2025)
Influence of potential vorticity generated by diabatic cooling over the Tibetan Plateau on the surface air temperature of Eastern China during Boreal Winter.
Journal of Climate, 38 (16).
pp. 4083-4095.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0732.1
Preview
18.
Maciel-Tiburcio, A., Martínez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Rodríguez-Hernández, O.
(2025)
Evaluating bias correction methods for wind power estimation using numerical meteorological models.
Renewable Energy, 247.
122927.
ISSN 0960-1481
doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.122927
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Rodríguez-Hernández, O.
(2025)
Evaluating bias correction methods for wind power estimation using numerical meteorological models.
Renewable Energy, 247.
122927.
ISSN 0960-1481
doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.122927
Preview
19.
Frew, R. C., Bateson, A. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-4161, Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X and Schröder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306
(2025)
Toward a marginal Arctic sea ice cover: changes to freezing, melting and dynamics.
The Cryosphere, 19 (6).
pp. 2115-2132.
ISSN 1994-0424
doi: 10.5194/tc-19-2115-2025
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-4161, Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X and Schröder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306
(2025)
Toward a marginal Arctic sea ice cover: changes to freezing, melting and dynamics.
The Cryosphere, 19 (6).
pp. 2115-2132.
ISSN 1994-0424
doi: 10.5194/tc-19-2115-2025
Preview
20.
Lichtenegger, T., Schaffer, A., Ossó, A., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Maraun, D.
(2025)
A cold frontal life cycle climatology and front–cyclone relationships over the North Atlantic and Europe.
International Journal of Climatology, 45 (8).
e8830.
ISSN 1097-0088
doi: 10.1002/joc.8830
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Maraun, D.
(2025)
A cold frontal life cycle climatology and front–cyclone relationships over the North Atlantic and Europe.
International Journal of Climatology, 45 (8).
e8830.
ISSN 1097-0088
doi: 10.1002/joc.8830
Preview