Abstract ID: 188
Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems
Lead Author: Cristiana Stan
George Mason University, United States of America
Keywords: sub-project highlight
Abstract: This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden Julian Oscillations and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.
Co-authors:
Cheng Zheng (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA)
Edmund Kar-Man Chang (School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, USA
Daniela I.V. Domeisen (ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zürich, Switzerland and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland)
Chaim I. Garfinkel (The Fredy and Nadine Hermann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel)
Andrea M. Jenney (Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, USA)
Hyemi Kim (School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, USA )
Young-Kwon Lim (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA and
Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research / University of Maryland Baltimore County, USA
Hai Lin (Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canada)
Andrew Robertson (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, USA)
Chen Schwartz (The Fredy and Nadine Hermann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel)
Frederic Vitart (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, UK)
Jiabao Wang (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA)
Priyanka Yadav (ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zürich, Switzerland)
