Programme

Conference programme

Schedule of Oral and Poster Presentations. All timings listed are local UK time (British Summer Time; BST; UTC+1).

In the detailed programmes (orals/posters), click on the title to see the full abstract.

PDF version of conference programme: [Letter size pdf] [A4 size pdf].

Overview

Monday 3 July Tuesday 4 July Wednesday 5 July Thursday 6 July Friday 7 July
08:00–08:30 Registration
08:30–09:00
09:00–09:30 Opening Session Modeling: M1 Ensembles Breakout Preparation Predictability & Processes: P3 Stratosphere Predictability & Processes: P5 Precipitation & Tropical Waves
09:30–10:00
10:00–10:30
10:30–11:00 Morning Coffee
11:00–11:30 Predictability & Processes: P1 MJO & Teleconnections R2O: R2 Skill & Verification Breakout 1 Predictability & Processes: P4 Other Processes R2O: R4 Climate Services
11:30–12:00
12:00–12:30 Breakout 2
12:30–13:00
13:00–13:30 (13:00: Group photo) Lunch Break (Running Out of Time relay)
13:30–14:00
14:00–14:30 Poster Session 1
(Block A)		 Poster Session 2
(Block A)		 Poster Session 3
(Block B)		 Poster Session 4
(Block B)		 Modeling: M3 Downscaling, Machine Learning & Model Biases
14:30–15:00
15:00–15:30
15:30–16:00 Afternoon Coffee
16:00–16:30 R2O: R1 Extremes Predictability & Processes: P2 Land & Aerosols R2O: R3 Post-Processing Modeling: M2 Ensembles & Processes Breakout Reports & Closing Discussion
16:30–17:00
17:00–17:30
17:30–18:00 Ice Breaker * ECR Event *
18:00–18:30
18:30–19:00 Conference Dinner *
19:00–19:30
19:30–20:00
20:00–20:30
20:30–21:00

* Timings of evening events are provisional

Monday 3rd

08:00–09:00 Registration
09:00–10:30 Opening Session
Session Chair: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
09:00–09:15 Welcome from the University of Reading, WCRP and S2S Project
09:15–09:30 Chris Davis (WWRP, NCAR) WWRP: Welcome and Future Vision
09:30–10:00 Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) Basic ideas on possible S2S predictive power
10:10–10:30 Gilbert Brunet (Bureau of Meteorology) Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: a thirty-year journey
10:30–11:00 Morning Coffee
11:00–13:00 Predictability & Processes: P1 MJO & Teleconnections
Session Chair: Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)
11:00–11:15 188 Cristiana Stan
(George Mason University)		 Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems
11:15–11:30 191 Hyemi Kim
(Ewha Womans University & Stony Brook University)		 The Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO predictability: perfect-model ensemble forecasts with the CESM2 aqua-planet
11:30–11:45 209 Kunio Yoneyama
(JAMSTEC)		 Some indications of key components for the MJO and relevant phenomena over the Maritime Continent from the recent field observations
11:45–12:00 198 Donaldi Permana
(Center for Research and Development – Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG))		 The impact of the BSISO on boreal summer rainfall anomalies in Indonesia
12:00–12:15 260 June-Yi Lee
(Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University)		 Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation: Propagation, Interannual Variability, and Impacts on Extremes
12:15–12:30 086 Robert W. Lee
(University of Reading)		 ENSO modulation of MJO teleconnections to the North Atlantic & Europe
12:30–12:45 211 Christian M. Grams
(Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))		 Predictability and windows of sub-seasonal forecast opportunity for North Atlantic-European weather regimes
12:45–13:00 237 David Martin Straus
(George Mason University)
This talk has been moved to the P4 Session at 12:00		 Uncertainty in Diabatic Heating within MJO phases 3-4 and Consequences for Mid-Latitude Predictability: Large Ensemble Studies with the ECMWF Model
13:00–14:00 Lunch Break
14:00–15:30 Poster Session 1 (Block A)
15:30–16:00 Afternoon Coffee
16:00–17:30 R2O: R1 Extremes
Session Chair: Hai Lin (Environment and Climate Change Canada)
16:00–16:15 192 Christopher J. White
(Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde)		 Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction case studies: extreme events and applications
16:15–16:30 060 James Carruthers
(Newcastle University)		 Using sub-seasonal forecasting to predict temporally compounding extreme events
16:30–16:45 149 Chia-Ying Lee
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)		 Subseasonal tropical cyclone precipitation prediction in GEOS-S2S and the WMO S2S models
16:45–17:00 152 Hélène Vermes
(Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), CNRS, Université de La Réunion, Météo-France)		 Using monthly forecast of extreme events in the southwest Indian Ocean for disaster risk management: co-creation of a decision support tool for tropical cyclone risk anticipation
17:00–17:15 035 Melanie Alayne Schroers
(School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma)		 Prediction and Impacts of 14-day Extreme Precipitation Periods within the CONUS
17:15–17:30 100 Pauline Rivoire
(Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne)		 Assessment of S2S ensemble extreme precipitation forecasts over Europe
17:30–19:00 Ice Breaker

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Tuesday 4th

09:00–10:30 Modeling: M1 Ensembles
Session Chair: Andrea Molod (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)
09:00–09:15 072 Yuhei Takaya
(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)		 Summary of S2S Ensemble Sub-project
09:15–09:30 246 Judith Berner
(National Center for Atmospheric Research, U.S.A.)		 Impact of Stochastic Parameterization on S2S Forecasts with CESM
09:30–09:45 050 Tongwen Wu
(Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration)		 CMA-CPSv3: A sub-seasonal to annual climate prediction system in China Meteorological Administration
09:45–10:00 095 Masashi Sumitomo
(Japan Meteorological Agency)		 New JMA forecast data for S2S Project based on a coupled model
10:00–10:15 029 Rae-Seol Park
(Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems)		 Korean Integrated Model: expansion of prediction target to extended range forecasts
10:15–10:30 069 William James Crawford
(U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey)		 The Navy Earth System Prediction Capability Version 2  Ensemble Forecast System
10:30–11:00 Morning Coffee
11:00–13:00 R2O: R2 Skill & Verification
Session Chair: Arun Kumar (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
11:00–11:15 089 Caio Coelho
(CPTEC/INPE)		 The S2S sub-project on Research to Operations (R2O): forecast and verification products development
11:15–11:30 255 D R Pattanaik
(India Meteorological Department)		 Extended Range Forecast of Monsoon over India at Met-subdivision and Districts levels : Prospect of its applications in Agriculture
11:30–11:45 126 Felipe M. de Andrade
(National Institute for Space Research)		 Skill assessment and sources of predictability for sub-seasonal rainfall forecasts in Africa
11:45–12:00 044 Marisol Osman
(Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))		 Multi-model Assessment of the Sub-seasonal Predictive Skill for the Year-round Atlantic-European Weather Regimes
12:00–12:15 096 S. Abhik
(School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Australia)		 The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on MJO Prediction in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models
12:15–12:30 196 Philip Pegion
(NOAA)		 Coupled Model Diagnostic Tools for UFS Subseasonal to Seasonal Model Development
12:30–12:45 009 Claire Spillman
(Bureau of Meteorology)		 Predicting ocean extremes at subseasonal to seasonal timescales for operational decision support
12:45–13:00 245 Abigail Jaye
(National Center for Atmospheric Research, U.S.A.)		 State-dependent Forecast Skill in S2S Forecasts
13:00–14:00 Lunch Break, including group photo outside the Palmer Building front entrance at 13:00
14:00–15:30 Poster Session 2 (Block A)
15:30–16:00 Afternoon Coffee
16:00–17:30 Predictability & Processes: P2 Land & Aerosols
Session Chair: Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)
16:00–16:15 258 Yongkang Xue
(University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA))		 Progress Towards for better Understanding of the Sources of Global S2S Precipitation Prediction using Land Temperatures Anomaly over high mountains: A brief overview from the GEWEX/LS4P Initiative
16:15–16:30 259 Julia Green
(University of Arizona)		 An Emergent Constraint to Improve the Representation of Biosphere-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Earth System Models
16:30–16:45 110 Bethan L. Harris
(UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology/National Centre for Earth Observation)		 Global observations highlight regions where vegetation can enhance S2S predictability
16:45–17:00 107 Constantin Ardilouze
(CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS)		 Predicting the leaf area index in a dynamical S2S forecast system
17:00–17:15 157 Ariane Frassoni
(INPE)		 The Second Phase of the WGNE Aerosol Project: Evaluating the impact of aerosols on the Subseasonal Prediction
17:15–17:30 007 Joshua Talib
(UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)		 Surface drivers of sub-seasonal predictability across Africa
18:30–21:00 Conference Dinner

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Wednesday 5th

09:00–10:30 Breakout Preparation
Session Chair: Robert Lee (University of Reading)
09:00–09:15 242 Dorothy Koch
(NOAA OAR Weather Program Office)
Presented by Mark Olsen
(NOAA OAR Weather Program Office)		 NOAA’s S2S Program Plan and Project Highlights
09:15–09:30 081 Richard Mladek
(ECMWF)		 The technical development of the S2S database
09:30–09:45 049 Xing Hu
(China Meteorological Administration)		 Progress of CMA S2S Data Archive Centre
09:45–10:00 017 Paul Dirmeyer
(George Mason University)		 The Land Sub-project of S2S
10:00–10:15 261 Laura Ferranti
(ECMWF)
Presented by Matthieu Chevallier
(ECMWF)		 WMO infrastructure for operational subseasonal forecasting
10:15–10:30 Breakout instructions
10:30–11:00 Morning Coffee
11:00–13:00 Breakout Session
Breakout Group Chairs:

  1. Christian Grams
  2. Hai Lin
  3. Christopher Roberts
  4. Jason Furtado
  5. Randal Koster
  6. Felipe M. de Andrade
  7. Dominik Büeler
  8. Linda Hirons
13:00–14:00 Lunch Break
14:00–15:30 Poster Session 3 (Block B)
15:30–16:00 Afternoon Coffee
16:00–17:30 R2O: R3 Post-Processing
Session Chair: Caio Coelho (CPTEC/INPE)
16:00–16:15 236 Andrew W. Robertson
(IRI, Columbia University)		 A multimodel real-time system for global probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature
16:15–16:30 251 Marie Drouard
(Institute of Geosciences (IGEO, CSIC-UCM), Madrid)		 Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of summer heatwaves in the Iberian Peninsula using machine learning algorithms
16:30–16:45 046 Nina Horat
(Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))		 Deep learning for post-processing global probabilistic forecasts on sub-seasonal time-scales
16:45–17:00 116 Lucía M. Castro
(Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos – Servicio Meteorologico Nacional)		 Skill assessment of weekly temperature anomalies in the SubX Project for the extended austral summer in South America
17:00–17:15 225 Steven Woolnough
(National Centre for Atmopsheric Science, University of Reading)		 The potential for using weather patterns to advance sub-seasonal forecasting in Southeast Asia
17:15–17:30 172 Camille Marie-Jeanne Laurence Le Coz
(Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-IPSL, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS)		 Multi-model sub-seasonal forecasts of 2m-temperature over Europe using Wasserstein barycentre
17:30–19:00 Early Career Researcher Event

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Thursday 6th

09:00–10:30 Predictability & Processes: P3 Stratosphere
Session Chair: Cristiana Stan (George Mason University)
09:00–09:15 031 Chaim Garfinkel
(Hebrew University)		 The Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP): the role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for S2S skill
09:15–09:30 233 Jason Furtado
(School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma)		 Representation and Predictability of Stratospheric Wave Reflection Events in Subseasonal Forecast Models
09:30–09:45 012 Bowen Liu
(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)		 Precursory Signals in the Stratospheric Meridional Mass Circulation for Mid-Latitude Cold Air Outbreak Events of High and Low Sub-Seasonal Predictability
09:45–10:00 066 Rachel Wai-Ying Wu
(ETH Zurich)		 Bimodality in the Predictability of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events: A Case Study of the 2009 and 2018 Events
10:00–10:15 146 Andrew James Charlton-Perez
(University of Reading)		 A Minimal Model to Diagnose the Contribution of the Stratosphere to Tropospheric Forecast Skill
10:15–10:30 067 Jonas Spaeth
(University of Munich (LMU))		 Anomalies in tropospheric extended-range forecast uncertainty arising from stratosphere-troposphere coupling
10:30–11:00 Morning Coffee
11:00–13:00 Predictability & Processes: P4 Other Processes
Session Chair: Hyemi Kim (Ewha Womans University)
11:00–11:15 006 Hai Lin
(Environment and Climate Change Canada)		 Subseasonal variability of the warm Arctic – cold North American pattern
11:15–11:30 230 John Methven
(University of Reading)		 Relating the properties of quasi-stationary Rossby waves to the jet that they live on
11:30–11:45 123 Iago Perez Fernández
(Universidad de la República)		 Predictability of Long-lived of Rossby Wave Packets during Southern Hemisphere Summer
11:45–12:00 022 Shreya Keshri
(Earth and Climate Science, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune)		 A survey of Mixed Rossby-Gravity waves and quantification of their association with extratropical disturbances
12:00–12:15 237 David Martin Straus
(George Mason University)
This talk has been moved from the P1 Session		 Uncertainty in Diabatic Heating within MJO phases 3-4 and Consequences for Mid-Latitude Predictability: Large Ensemble Studies with the ECMWF Model
12:15–12:30 164 Boris Dewitte
(CEAZA/CECI)		 Forecast opportunity at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales in the South Eastern Pacific
12:30–12:45 130 Jing Yang
(Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University)		 Intraseasonal Melting of Northern Barents Sea Ice Forced by Circumpolar Clockwise-Propagating Atmospheric Waves during Early Summer
12:45–13:00 256 Elizabeth Barnes
(Colorado State University)		 Interpretable Machine Learning for S2D Prediction and Discovery: data-driven approaches to the method of analogs
13:00–14:00 Lunch Break
14:00–15:30 Poster Session 4 (Block B)
15:30–16:00 Afternoon Coffee
16:00–17:30 Modeling: M2 Ensembles & Processes
Session Chair: Yuhei Takaya (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)
16:00–16:15 084 Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
(ECMWF)		 Towards consistent representation of the boundary forcing temporal variability in S2S reforecasts and real-time forecasts
16:15–16:30 001 Frederic Vitart
(ECMWF)		 Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF
16:30–16:45 085 Andrea Molod
(NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)		 Prediction and Predictability Studies with NASA’s GEOS-S2S Modeling and Assimilation System
16:45–17:00 137 Qing Bao
(Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP))
Presented by Yangke Liu
(Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP))		 Impacts of humidity initialization on MJO prediction: a study in an operational Sub-seasonal to seasonal system
17:00–17:15 019 Susmitha Joseph
(Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune )		 Development of a Multi-physics Multi-ensemble system for efficient subseasonal prediction
17:15–17:30 177 Matthew Newman
(NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory)		 A Linear Inverse Model for Improved Model Guidance of CPC’s Week 3-4 Operational Temperature Outlooks

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Friday 7th

09:00–10:30 Predictability & Processes: P5 Precipitation & Tropical Waves
Session Chair: Susmitha Joesph (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
09:00–09:15 062 Arun Kumar
(Climate Prediction Center, NOAA)		 Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill
09:15–09:30 148 Xiangbo Feng (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading) Equatorial waves: precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification
09:30–09:45 131 Vincent Owanda Otieno
(Technical University of Kenya)		 Characterization of Intra-Seasonal Variability during Extreme Dry Seasons over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA): Implications for Climate Adaptation and Mitigation
09:45–10:00 193 Juliana Dias
(NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory)		 Are equatorial waves a practical source of deterministic sub-seasonal predictive skill?
10:00–10:15 214 Philippe Peyrille
(CNRM, Meteo-France)
Presented by Damien Specq
(CNRM, Meteo-France)		 Multiple tropical waves occurrence drive extreme precipitation events in the central Sahel
10:15–10:30 160 Kieran Mark Rainwater Hunt
(University of Reading)		 Nonlinear intensification of monsoon low pressure systems by the BSISO
10:30–11:00 Morning Coffee
11:00–13:00 R2O: R4 Climate Services
Session Chair: Andrew Robertson (IRI, Columbia University)
11:00–11:15 097 Joanne Robbins
(Met Office)		 Exploring the challenges and opportunities of S2S forecast application development through the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Real Time Pilot (RTP) Initiative
11:15–11:30 257 Mike DeFlorio
(Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)		 The transition from California’s extreme drought to major flooding: Evaluating CW3E’s S2S forecasts of the onslaught of landfalling atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in December 2022 – January 2023
11:30–11:45 057 Linda Hirons
(NCAS, University of Reading)		 Using a co-production approach to support effective application of S2S forecasts in Africa
11:45–12:00 174 Masilin Gudoshava
(IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre)		 Application of real time S2S forecasts over Eastern Africa in the co-production of climate services
12:00–12:15 071 Randal Koster
(Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center)		 The Subseasonal Forecasting of Hydrological Variables:  Improvement Strategies Inferred from a Water Balance Model Analysis
12:15–12:30 166 Wee Leng Tan
(Centre for Climate Research Singapore)
Presented by Chen Schwartz
(Centre for Climate Research Singapore)		 Application of S2S for Disaster Management: Development of products for Southeast Asia
12:30–12:45 208 Emily Black
(University of Reading and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science)		 Application of sub-seasonal forecasts for farmer decision support in eastern and southern Africa
12:45–13:00 181 Erik W. Kolstad
(NORCE, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)		 Use of S2S forecasts in the Climate Futures centre for applied research
13:00–14:00 Lunch Break, including Running Out of Time walking relay participation opportunity
14:00–15:30 Modeling: M3 Downscaling, Machine Learning & Model Biases
Session Chair: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
14:00–14:15 217 Hoteit Ibrahim
(King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)
Presented by Thang Luong
(King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)		 On the development of a S2S forecasting system for the Arabian Peninsula using convective-permitting ensemble dynamical downscaling
14:15–14:30 243 Ty Dickinson
(School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma)		 Forecasting Subseasonal Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States Using a Convolutional Neural Network
14:30–14:45 104 Dominik Büeler
(ETH Zürich)		 Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts
14:45–15:00 178 Kirsten Mayer
(National Center for Atmospheric Research, U.S.A.)		 Identifying State-Dependent Subseasonal Predictability Bias with Explainable Neural Networks
15:00–15:15 090 Matthew Widlansky
(Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa)		 Assessing opportunities for improved coastal data assimilation in ocean model analyses and forecasting systems
15:15–15:30 120 Steffen Tietsche
(ECMWF)		 Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal forecasts
15:30–16:00 Afternoon Coffee
16:00–17:30 Breakout Reports & Closing Discussion
Session Chair: Steve Woolnough (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading)

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Posters A

Posters in Block A are to be displayed throughout Monday and Tuesday, and presented in either Poster Session 1 (Monday, 14:00-15:30) or Poster Session 2 (Tuesday, 14:00-15:30).

Poster # Author (Affiliation) Title Presenting Session
A1 Marcela Ulate (U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, UCAR) Impact of Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme on the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability prediction of the Madden Julian Oscillation during 2017 1
A2 Yangke Liu (CAS-IAP) Madden–Julian Oscillation prediction skill of CAS-IAP model 2
A3 Baoqiang Xiang (GFDL/NOAA, UCAR) Subseasonal prediction of diverse MJO and BSISO events in GFDL SPEAR model 1
A4 Jing Yang (Beijing Normal University) Boreal summer extratropical intraseasonal waves over the Eurasian continent and real-time monitoring metrics 2
A5 Laís Fernandes (Portland State University) ENSO-MJO effects on the lifecycle of North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers 1
A6 Young-Kwon Lim (University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Prediction skill of the eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation and associated dynamics in NASA’s GEOS-S2S forecast system 2
A7 Jung-Eun Esther Kim (Ewha Womans University) S2S predictability of Western North Pacific Subtropical High due to the decadal change in ENSO 1
A8 Laura Baker (NCAS, University of Reading) Understanding the intermittency of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S multi-model ensemble 2
A9 Masuo Nakano (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF Model 1
A10 Elena Saggioro (University of Reading) Probabilistic causal network modelling of Southern Hemisphere jet stream long-range predictability in spring-to-summer 2
A11 Tao Zhu (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University) Two Types of Mid-High-Latitude Low-Frequency Intraseasonal Oscillations near the Ural Mountains during Boreal Summer 1
A12 Constantin Ardilouze (CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS) Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe 2
A13 Jeffrey B. Basara (School of Meteorology; School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science; University of Oklahoma)
Presented by Taylor Grace (OU) and Daniel Mesheske (OU)		 Analysis of the 2022 Flash Drought Across the South-Central United States 1
A14 Marybeth Arcodia (Colorado State University) Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Predictability using Explainable Machine Learning 2
A15 Danni Du (University of Colorado, Boulder) Potential increase in MJO predictability under global warming 1
A16 Chaim Garfinkel (Hebrew University) The winter North Pacific teleconnection in response to ENSO and the MJO in operational subseasonal forecasting models is too weak 2
A17 Christopher David Roberts (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Euro-Atlantic weather regimes and their modulation by tropospheric and stratospheric teleconnection pathways in ECMWF reforecasts 1
A18 Sasha Glanville (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Subseasonal predictability from atmospheric, land, and ocean initial states 2
A19 Angela Benedetti (ECMWF)
Presented by Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)		 The impact of biomass burning emissions on seasonal prediction: a study using the ECMWF’s coupled Ensemble Prediction System 1
A20 Daniel Mesheske (Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science – University of Oklahoma) Interseasonal terrestrial-atmospheric drivers of flash drought over Europe 2
A21 Jing Yang (Beijing Normal University) Subseasonal Warming of Surface Soil Enhances Precipitation Over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau in Early Summer 1
A22 Yuhei Takaya (MRI, JMA) A submonthly scale causal relation between snow cover and surface air temperature on the autumnal Eurasian continent 2
A23 Shan Sun (NOAA Global Systems Laboratory) Quantifying direct aerosol effect on subseasonal prediction: climatology versus interactive aerosols in the UFS model 1
A24 Jonny Day (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Diagnostics for land-surface initial conditions and coupling 2
A25 Monika Feldmann (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern) Investigating the predictability of severe convective outbreaks in central Europe 1
A26 Raju Mandal (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune)
Presented by A. K. Sahai (IITM) and Susmitha Joseph (IITM)		 Diagnostics and real-time extended range prediction of cold waves over India 2
A27 Benjamin Davis (University of Oklahoma) Predictability of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Heat Waves in the United States Plains 1
A28 Taylor Grace (School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma) A Comparison of Boreal Winter and Summer Heat Wave Characteristics in the US Southern Great Plains 2
A29 Jorge L. Garcia Franco (Columbia University)
Presented by Chia-Ying Lee (Columbia University)		 On the source of model biases for subseasonal tropical cyclone precipitation prediction 1
A30 Emmanuel Rouges (University of Reading) Heatwaves over Europe: Improving the forecast on the sub-seasonal range 2
A31 Daniele Mastrangelo (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR-ISAC) Subseasonal prediction of the 21-25 November 2016 heavy rainfall event over northwestern Italy 1
A32 Annika Oertel (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)) Everything hits at once: how remote rainfall matters for the sub-seasonal prediction of the 2021 North American heat wave 2
A33 S. Abhik (School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Australia) Multiweek prediction and attribution of the Black Saturday heatwave event over southeast Australia 1
A34 Erwan Cornillault (CRNM) Extreme rainfall events over the French tropical overseas territories : characteristics and atmospheric forcing provided by equatorial waves 2
A35 Dame Guey (Laboratory of Electronics, Computing, Telecommunications and Renewable Energies – University Gaston Berger) Study of cyclogenesis in the eastern tropical Atlantic East Atlantic with the LMDz model 1
A36 Qiaoping Li (CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration) Forecasting and evaluation of summer extreme precipitation and high temperature events in China based on S2S models 2
A37 Richard I. Cullather (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System 1
A38 Ryu Jihun (GIST) Correlation between predictability in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) timescales and performance of mean state 2
A39 Marisol Osman (KIT) Factors influencing sub-seasonal forecast skill of Greenland Blockings 1
A40 Devin McAfee (University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology) Evaluation of S2S Prediction Project Database Performance in Forecasting U.S. Extreme Precipitation Events 2
A41 Paromita Chakraborty (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)) Assessing skill of ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting over South-east Asia 1
A42 Wayne Yuan-Huai Tsai (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University)
Presented by Hsiao-Chung Tsai (Tamkang University)		 Intraseasonal oscillations and the subseasonal peak rainfall event in the eastern Philippines during 2017/18 winter and S2S prediction evaluation 2
A43 Hsiao-Chung Tsai (Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University) Monitoring Global Tropical Cyclone Activities on Subseasonal Timescale using the CWB TC Tracking System 1
A44 Cristiana Stan (George Mason University) The Forecast Skill of the Northern Hemisphere Middle Latitudes Seasonal Oscillation and its impact on the surface air temperature 2
A45 Ranjeet Singh Bais Bais (PhD, IIT Kharagpur) Reliability indices for S2S model for societal application 1
A46 Paul-Arthur Monerie (University of Reading) Prediction of the seasonal variability of global summer monsoon precipitation 2
A47 Ignazio Giuntoli (CNR-ISAC) A weather regimes approach for identifying increased predictability in the subseasonal prediction of European winters 1
A48 Silvia Terzago (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC)) Seasonal forecasting of Alpine snow depth 2
A49 Maureen Abla Ahiataku (Ghana Meteorological Agency) Impact of Users’ Feedback on Weather Forecast Evaluation in Ghana, West Africa 1
A50 Supari Supari (Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)) The Performance of ECMWF S2S Model on Predicting the Wet Period at the end of 2022 in Java Island, Indonesia 2
A51 Zhao Li (NASA-GSFC-GMAO) Summer Heatwave Forecast skills in GEOS5-S2S version 2 1
A52 Xiangwen Liu (Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of China Meteorological Administration)
Presented by Weihua Jie (CMA)		 Progress of MJO Prediction at CMA during phase I to phase II of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project 2
A53 Maria Gehne (CU Boulder CIRES) Diagnostics of Tropical Variability in the Unified Forecast System 1
A54 Li Ren (NASA/GSFC, SSAI) Evaluation of GEOS -S2S Version 3 Forecast System 2
S1 Hyung-Jin Kim (Head, Climate Prediction Department, APEC Climate Center)

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Posters B

Posters in Block B are to be displayed throughout Wednesday and Thursday, and presented in either Poster Session 3 (Wednesday, 14:00-15:30), or Poster Session 4 (Thursday, 14:00-15:30).

Poster # Author (Affiliation) Title Presenting Session
B1 Eunjeong Lee (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS)) Impacts of an Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling in the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) 3
B2 Min Chu (CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC)) Seasonal prediction of regional Arctic sea ice using the high-resolution climate prediction system CMA-CPSv3 4
B3 Aude Carreric (BSC-CNS) Impacts of increased horizontal resolution on the seasonal predictability of Tropical Pacific variability 3
B4 Ian Simpson (University of Lincoln) Probabilistic seasonal forecasts using complex systems modelling, comparisons with dynamical models and linking North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and jet stream variability to UK and northwest Europe surface weather conditions 4
B5 Benjamin Green (CU/CIRES and NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory) Sensitivities of Subseasonal Coupled Earth System Model Simulations to Changes in Parameterizations of Convection, Cloud Microphysics, and Planetary Boundary Layer 3
B6 Prajwal P. Jadhav (Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune) Subseasonal forecasting of temperature and precipitation over India using a machine learning approach 4
B7 Yalan Fan (Beijing Normal University) Gain of one-month lead predicting spring rainfall over China: A comparison between FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system and its driving stretched-grid downscaling prediction system 3
B8 Bruno dos Santos Guimarães (Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research) An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models 4
B9 Christopher Castro (The University of Arizona) Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Arabian Peninsula: Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast and Tracking Capability through High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling 3
B10 Dioumacor Faye (Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique de l’Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar) Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast in Senegal: Machine Learning approach 4
B11 Sylvie Malardel (Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy)) Monthly forecast exploratory experiment with a convection permitting model for the south-west Indian Ocean basin 3
B12 Bowen Liu (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology) Impact of the Initial Stratospheric Polar Vortex State on East Asian Spring Rainfall Prediction in Seasonal Forecast Models 4
B13 Xiuyuan Ding (University of California, Los Angeles) Causality between Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity and Cold Extremes over North America 3
B14 Zachary Lawrence (CIRES / NOAA PSL)
Presented by Chaim I. Garfinkel (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)		 Stratosphere & Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Biases in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast Models: An International SNAP Community Effort 4
B15 Dvir Chwat (Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem)
Presented by Chaim I. Garfinkel (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)		 Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable? 3
B16 Chaim I. Garfinkel (Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Presented by Chen Schwartz (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)		 Stationary wave biases and their effect on upward troposphere– stratosphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models 4
B17 Robert W. Lee (University of Reading) Initial Conditions for Stratospheric Error Growth 3
B18 Philip Rupp (LMU Munich) Predicting the coupled AO extremes and strong polar vortex conditions during early 2020 4
B19 Hilla Afargan-Gerstman (ETH Zürich) Stratospheric influence on North Atlantic storm track predictability in subseasonal-to-seasonal reforecasts 3
B20 Alexey Karpechko (FMI)
Presented by Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)		 The tropical influence on sub-seasonal predictability of wintertime stratosphere and stratosphere-troposphere coupling 4
B21 Xiaocen Shen (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading) The Dominant Intraseasonal Coupling Mode between the Stratosphere and Troposphere: the Stratosphere-Troposphere Oscillation 3
B22 Akshay Deoras (NCAS & Department of Meteorology, University of Reading) The predictability and representation of Indian monsoon low-pressure systems in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal prediction models 4
B23 Tanvir Ahmed (Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh) Processes associated with extremely heavy precipitation in the Meghalaya Plateau region: A case modelling study. 3
B24 Joshua Dorrington (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) Domino: A framework for improving extreme event predictability using flow precursors 4
B25 Oliver T. Millin (School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma) The Impact of Rossby Wave Breaking on the Subseasonal Forecast of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak 3
B26 Timothy Higgins (University of Colorado – Boulder) Assessing the Potential Predictability of North Pacific Winter IVT and Precipitation Extremes in ECMWF Subseasonal Forecasts 4
B27 Felipe M. de Andrade (National Institute for Space Research) Evaluating the representation of South America precipitation variability patterns in sub-seasonal predictions of S2S project models 3
B28 Luong Thang (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology) Predictability of Sub-seasonal Rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula 4
B29 David Martin Straus (George Mason University) The Predictability of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Variability (Active-Break Cycle) from re-forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system at three resolutions. 3
B30 Erik W. Kolstad (NORCE, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research) Drivers of S2S Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains 4
B31 Weihua Jie (CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center (CEMC)) How to Choose Credible Ensemble Members for the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation? 3
B32 Dominik Büeler (ETH Zurich) Extended-range warnings for heatwaves in Switzerland (HEATaware) 4
B33 Amulya Chevuturi (UKCEH) Improving global hydrological simulations through bias-correction and multi-model blending 3
B34 Nurdeka Hidayanto (Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics)
Presented by Donaldi Permana (BMKG)		 Improving Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Model Performance in The Tropics Using a Machine Learning Approach 4
B35 Annie Y.-Y. Chang (ETH Zurich) Sub-seasonal drought forecasting in the European Alps with EFAS data in a machine-learning-aided hybrid approach 3
B36 Hui-Ling Chang (Central Weather Bureau) Analog Post-processing of Week 2-3 Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts over Taiwan 4
B37 Sem Vijverberg (Vrije Universiteit, Institute for Environmental Studies) Introducing the AI4S2S project; open-source python packages to make data-driven pipelines for S2S forecasting more efficient, transparent, and scalable 3
B38 Philippe Peyrille (CNRM, Meteo-France) Added value of analysing tropical waves and precipitable water for subseasonal forecast in West Africa : the MISVA platform 4
B39 Diego A. Campos Díaz (Direccion Meteorologica de Chile) On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal precipitation forecast in Chile 3
B40 Pascal Oettli (Center for Environmental Remote Sensing (CEReS), Chiba University) The value of machine learning to improve seasonal forecasting in mid-latitudes: The example of surface air temperature in central Japan 4
B41 Zhou Yang (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology) How Can Quasi-Periodic Signals Privilege S2S Operational Forecast? From a Perspective of Deep Learning 3
B42 Joshua Talib (UKCEH) Co-producing sub-seasonal warnings of meningitis outbreaks 3
B43 Kamoru Abiodun Lawal (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD)) Progress and Challenges of Demand-Led Co-Produced Sub-Seasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Climate Forecasts in Nigeria 3
B44 Fabian Mockert (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Department Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)) Weather regimes: A window of sub-seasonal forecast opportunity for periods of low renewable electricity generation in Germany? 4
B45 Valentina Pavan (Arpae-Simc) Sub-seasonal ensemble irrigation forecasts in Emilia-Romagna 3
B46 Pauline Rivoire (Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne) Forecasting hydrometeorological drivers of forest damage over Europe 4
B47 Victor Indasi (ACMAD) The Need for sustained provision S2S forecast products: African Perspective. 3
B48 Mary Nyambur Kilavi (Kenya Meteorological Department) Reflections on the development and use of S2S products in Kenya 4
B49 Yuxian Pan (Beijing Normal University) Skillful seasonal prediction of summer wildfires over Central Asia 3
B50 Christoph Spirig (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss)
Presented by Adel Imamovic (MeteoSwiss)		 Towards an early warning system for droughts in Switzerland 4
B51 Patricia Nying’uro (Kenya Meteorological Department) Use of S2S forecast products in Kenya; Application for NHMSs forecast producers & for the Energy Sector. 3
B52 Mark Rhodes-Smith (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology) UK Hydrological Outlook: Operational river flow forecasting using spatially-distributed seasonal rainfall forecasts 4
B53 Victoria L. Boult (University of Reading) S2S Forecasts for Biodiversity Conservation 3
B54 Sylvie Malardel (Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy)) PISSARO: a collaborative and user-oriented project on the monthly forecasting of extreme events in the southwest Indian Ocean 4
B55 Neil Hart (University of Oxford) When on-ground decision making shapes S2S prediction research pathways 3
S1 Hyung-Jin Kim (Head, Climate Prediction Department, APEC Climate Center)

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