Abstract ID: 029
Korean Integrated Model: expansion of prediction target to extended range forecasts
Lead Author: Rae-Seol Park
Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, South Korea
Keywords: Korean Integrated Model, extended range forecasts, coupled model, middle atmosphere, teleconnection
Abstract: Korean Integrated Model (KIM) had been developed by the KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) during the years of 2011-2019 and has been utilized as an operational model at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) since 2020. Currently, the KIAPS is developing a next-generation numerical weather prediction model covering multiple scales in space and time including extended range based on the KIM. The expansion of prediction target to extended range forecasts is a very challenging task because the KIM was optimized for 10-day forecasts. So, the KIAPS has been studying for maximizing the predictability of extended range forecasts under couples of strategies.
First, boundary models were coupled to the KIM through MCT-based coupler. Noah-MP (Noah with multiparameterization) was coupled for land surface boundary condition. NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) and SI3 (Sea Ice modelling Integrated Initiative) were also coupled for oceanic boundary conditions. The coupled system has been updated for efficient coupling and improving the physics from Oct. 2022 when a prototype was completed. In addition, wave and river routing models will be coupled.
Next, the KIAPS has been studying couples of topics for better predictability of middle atmosphere because anomalies at stratosphere are transferred to lower troposphere and affect extended range forecasts. Impact of ozone on stratospheric predictability was investigated and KIM-simulated ozone burden and distribution were diagnosed. Based on the analysis, ozone climatology was updated and recently a linear model was applied to the KIM. Artic physics (sea-ice, snow, clouds and so on) have been improved for elaboration of polar vortex simulation considering an impact on cold wave.
Finally, a consistency among couples of physical processes is improved via developing integrated physics schemes for stability of the KIM. Cloud physics are intensively studied for simulating realistic vertical structure of temperature over equatorial and consequently, improving the predictability of MJO. Also, MJO or ENSO teleconnections are studied for the better extended range forecasts.
In the workshop, details of the KIAPS’s efforts for the extended range forecasts will be presented. In addition, the KIAPS also hope to discuss about various approaches for improving the extended range predictability with S2S community in the workshop.
※ This work was carried out through the R&D project “Development of a Next-Generation Numerical Weather Prediction Model by the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS)”, funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA2020-02212).
Co-authors:
Eun-Hee Lee (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems)
Myung-Seo Koo (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems)
Sooya Bae (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems)
Hyun Nam (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems)
