Abstract ID: 069
The Navy Earth System Prediction Capability Version 2 Ensemble Forecast System
Lead Author: William James Crawford
U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, United States of America
Keywords: Ensemble, Operational, ESPC, Verification, Upgrades
Abstract: The Navy Earth System Predictability Capability (Navy ESPC) is a global coupled forecast system that consists of the NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) atmosphere model, the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Community Ice CodE (CICE). This system has been developed to meet U. S. Navy needs for high-resolution global environmental forecasts on timescales from days to months, and a unique aspect of the system is the eddy resolving ocean model at the ensemble and deterministic resolutions. The Navy ESPC Version 1 Ensemble Forecast System (Navy ESPC V1-Ens) became operational in August 2020, and produces weekly 45-day 16-member forecasts. We will present early verification results for the Navy ESPC V2-Ens system currently undergoing a one-year reanalysis/reforecast test for operational transition. New capabilities and upgrades from V1 to V2 include one-way coupling to the WAVEWATCH III wave model, an extension of the NAVGEM top to 100 km and improved representation of the middle atmosphere, updating the CICE component from V4 to V6, increased NAVGEM horizontal resolution, and inclusion of ocean tides in the ensemble configuration. Improvements to the ensemble design planned beyond Navy ESPC V2 will also be presented.
Co-authors:
Clark Rowley (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Carolyn Reynolds (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA)
Richard Allard (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Charlie Barron (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Maria Flatau (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA)
David Hebert (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Gregg Jacobs (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Matthew Janiga (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA)
Tommy Jensen (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
David Kuhl (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC)
Robert Linzell (Peraton, Inc. Herndon, VA)
Fei Liu (Science Applications International Corporation/Cherokee Nation Business)
Justin McLay (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA)
E. Joseph Metzger (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Stephanie Rushley (National Research Council, Monterey, CA)
James Ridout (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA)
Erick Rogers (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Jay Shriver (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Ole Martin Smedstad (Peraton, Inc. Herndon, VA)
Prasad Thoppil (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Tamara Townsend (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis, MS)
Timothy Whitcomb (U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA)
