Abstract 004

Abstract ID: 004

Subseasonal prediction of diverse MJO and BSISO events in GFDL SPEAR model

Lead Author: Baoqiang Xiang
GFDL/NOAA, UCAR, United States of America

Keywords: MJO, BSISO, S2S, Diversity

Abstract: First I will introduce a newly developed subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system using the GFDL SPEAR global coupled model. Based on 20-year hindcast results (2000-2019), then I will present the overall prediction skill of the boreal wintertime Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). Additionally, we find that the prediction is strongly dependent on the propagation feature of different types of MJO/BSISO. The SPEAR model shows its capability, beyond the propagation, in predicting their initiation for different types of MJO/BSISO along with discrete precursory convection anomalies. Potential factors influencing the forecast skill of MJO/BSISO will be discussed. If I have time, I will also introduce the prediction performance of NAO, Atmospheric Rivers, and heat waves in western North America during the summer of 2021.

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