Abstract ID: 008
Co-producing sub-seasonal warnings of meningitis outbreaks
Lead Author: Joshua Talib
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom
Keywords: Health, Sub-Saharan Africa, Climate service, Real-time project, Co-production
Abstract: Meningitis is a deadly disease that remains a major public health concern across sub-Saharan Africa. Given that previous studies have shown the influence of large-scale environmental conditions on the likelihood of meningitis epidemics, we use a co-production process between the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO) to support awareness, preparedness and response actions for meningitis outbreaks.
Meningitis is favoured under warm, dry and dusty conditions. In light of this, we amalgamate sub-seasonal forecasts of temperature and humidity with short-term (72 hour) dust forecasts to operationalize an early warning system of meningitis outbreaks. Through a co-production framework, we developed vigilance maps with descriptive prose based on meteorological and disease thresholds. The use of sub-seasonal forecast data extended the lead-time of existing early warnings by two weeks. This improved decision-making by local and national-level health services as reliable and actionable information was available earlier. Through this work we also conclude that ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts have good skill at predicting dry and warm atmospheric conditions across sub-Saharan Africa, and additionally, forecasted vigilance levels are consistent with reported number of meningitis cases. Alongside developing a sub-seasonal early warning system, the co-production framework encouraged the use of climate data to support the goal of eradicating meningitis across sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. Our study highlights the potential of using sub-seasonal forecast data to support decision-making across the health sector. To ensure the continued publication of meningitis early warnings and to promote the development of new health-focussed climate services requires continued access to real-time sub-seasonal forecast data. Future efforts should improve the communication of sub-seasonal forecasts to support decision-making within the health sector and alleviate disease impacts.
Co-authors:
Cheikh Dione (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger)
Ado M. Bwaka (World Health Organization, Intercountry Support Team, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
André F. Kamga (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger)
André A. Bita Fouda (World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo)
Linda Hirons (National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, United Kingdom)
Anderson Latt (World Health Organization, Emergencies hub Dakar, Senegal)
Elisabeth Thompson (National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, United Kingdom)
Clement Lingani (World Health Organization, Intercountry Support Team, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)
Victor Savatia Indasi (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger)
Elijah A. Adefisan (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger)
Steve J. Woolnough (National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, United Kingdom)
