Abstract 031

Abstract ID: 031

The Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP): the role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for S2S skill

Lead Author: Chaim Garfinkel
Hebrew University, Israel

Keywords: stratosphere-troposphere coupling, Sudden warmings, Annular modes, North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract: The Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP) is a joint SPARC/S2S Prediction project activity with a goal to lead and coordinate international research efforts to understand stratospheric predictability and its tropospheric impacts. SNAP constitutes the stratosphere sub-project of the S2S project. In addition to dozens of papers published by SNAP affiliated scientists, SNAP has organized 4 community papers and one book chapter during Phase 2 of the S2S project, with several more papers in progress. Here we summarize results from these community efforts organized by SNAP to (a) assess stratospheric forecast skill, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and stratospheric biases in S2S forecast models and (b) quantify the contribution of the stratospheric circulation to S2S forecast skill. The projects, which include a new modeling protocol to isolate the role of the stratosphere, will enhance our understanding of the broad impacts of the stratosphere on surface weather and its role in predictability on S2S timescales.

Amy Butler
Daniela Domeisen
Zachary Lawrence
Peter Hitchcock