Abstract ID: 076
S2S predictability of Western North Pacific Subtropical High due to the decadal change in ENSO
Lead Author: Jung-Eun Esther Kim
Ewha Womans University, South Korea
Keywords: S2S predictability, WNPSH variability, hindcast experiment
Abstract: Recent study has reported that the strong lagged relationship between the late-summer western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and the previous ENSO has been substantially weakened in the recent decades. Reversely, the WNPSH-ENSO connection during early summer has become pronounced over the decades. It is related to the different evolutions of local and tropical SST anomalies from winter to summer, which depend on the dominant type of the ENSO in the past and recent decades, and the corresponding changes in variabilities and mechanisms of the sub-summer WNPSH. Such change would also influence the S2S predictability of the WNPSH.
Since the S2S dataset have not been provided for the past decade, we perform the hindcast experiment for the years of 1980-2020 using the atmosphere-only version of the global circulation model. The S2S predictability of the WNPSH due to the change in the WNPSH-ENSO connection will be assessed and presented.
Changhyun Yoo (Ewha Womans University, Korea)
Myung-Seo Koo (KIAPS, Korea)