Abstract 097

Abstract ID: 097

Exploring the challenges and opportunities of S2S forecast application development through the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Real Time Pilot (RTP) Initiative

Lead Author: Joanne Robbins
Met Office, United Kingdom

Keywords: Forecast Applications, Real Time Pilot, Co-production, User Engagement

Abstract: The aim of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Real Time Pilot (RTP) Initiative is to identify best practices for the development of useful and usable, user-orientated S2S forecasts. Over the 3 years of the RTP, experiences from 15 projects using real-time S2S forecasts to develop a variety of S2S forecast applications were collected and synthesised. This involved the dissemination and analysis of 2-sets of questionnaires, followed by more detailed semi-structured interviews and subsequent synthesis. All feedback activities were inclusive of researchers and users participating in the initiative. This presentation will describe the different approaches projects took in the development of S2S forecast applications, focussing on co-production and user engagement activities across the value chain. Benefits, opportunities and challenges to using co-production methods in the development of user-orientated forecasts are identified through the feedback activities and wider literature. These findings suggest that the application of co-production methods remains novel in the S2S time range, with time and resource availability for stakeholder engagement posing a challenge. However, the feedback suggests that where bi-directional interaction is sustained, positive feedback mechanisms can develop, which build trust, strengthen collaborative working arrangements and enhance forecast product development specific to user requirements.

Rebecca Simmonds (University of Strathclyde, UK)
Christopher White (University of Strathclyde, UK)