Abstract ID: 143
Use of S2S forecast products in Kenya; Application for NHMSs forecast producers & for the Energy Sector.
Lead Author: Patricia Nying’uro
Kenya Meteorological Department, Kenya
Keywords: S2S, Energy, Co-production, Forecasting, Weather
Abstract: The introduction and subsequent use of Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) data to produce forecasts (1-4 weeks) have shown great potential in enhancing the quality of forecast products produced by weather forecasters in Kenya for various applications. For the duration of the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) project forecasters used S2S data to improve the quality of general forecasts issued as well as to coproduce novel products for application in among others, the energy sector. By supporting improved seasonal onset determination as well as improving the temporal resolution of forecasts, the producers of weather and climate information at the NHMS were able to add value to products disseminated. Additionally, through iterative development of tailor-made products with experts from the leading energy generation company in Kenya, KenGen, benefits have been garnered ranging from the widely applauded reduction of power outages to more efficient energy generation planning thus reducing running costs. This paper documents the process of operationalising the use of S2S data, the co-production process including optimum user-driven communication and application of the forecasts, illustrates the value of the forecasts and highlights the lessons learnt. These have the potential to support NHMSs looking to start using S2S to bridge any product gaps and tailormake products.
Linda Hirons (University of Reading)
Chris Kiptum (Kenya Meteorological Department)
Willis Ochieng’ (KenGen)
Caroline Wainwright (Grantham Institute)