Abstract 166

Abstract ID: 166

Application of S2S for Disaster Management: Development of products for Southeast Asia

Lead Author: Wee Leng Tan
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Singapore

Keywords: Disaster management, Product development

Abstract: Hydrometeorological disasters make up majority of disasters in Southeast Asia and subseasonal outlook can potentially provide more time for anticipatory actions for disaster management. The S2S Southeast Asia Pilot project (S2S SEA, 2020-2022) aimed to explore the usefulness and applicability of subseasonal outlook for disaster management in the region. Here we will compare the results of different products developed under S2S-SEA for extreme rainfall.

Under the S2S-SEA, the first product developed was the fortnightly outlook guidance document. ASMC (ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre) provided AHA Centre (ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management) a written summary outlook of the increase in chance of very heavy rainfall for up to leadtime of three weeks every fortnight. The outlook used information primarily from the S2S Prediction Project, including ECMWF Extended Range weekly forecast (extremes, quintiles, terciles) and associated model skill, as well as other secondary information: SubX outlook, comparison of previous forecast with the observations, as well as information on the climate drivers. The guidance document was a prototype to support AHA Centre in providing disaster alert reports for the regional users. However, this product is difficult to automate and therefore limited in the update frequency.

A second product was developed for AHA Centre’s Disaster Management Response System (DMRS), a disaster monitoring tool to show real time information of the hazards in the region. Current products on DMRS focus mainly on monitoring and observations. An automated S2S extremes outlook was developed for use on the DMRS to fill in the gap of subseasonal outlook information. This outlook map combines the chance of extremes rainfall with the corresponding model skill for different level of confidence. An adaptive percentile thresholding system was used for the S2S extremes outlook, with the percentile levels derived from the model output for past recorded hydrometeorological events in the region.

While both products are useful, they have their own limitations. The pros and cons of the products will be discussed along with further plans to improve the usefulness of S2S products for disaster management in Southeast Asia.

Thea Turkington (Centre for Climate Research Singapore)
Chen Schwartz (Centre for Climate Research Singapore)