Abstract 170

Abstract ID: 170

Prediction of the seasonal variability of global summer monsoon precipitation

Lead Author: Paul-Arthur Monerie
University of Reading, United Kingdom

Keywords: Seasonal prediction, monsoon precipitation, large-ensemble, precipitation

Abstract: We assess skill of a prediction system (the Met Office’s DePreSys3, a large ensemble) at forecasting summer monsoon precipitation at the seasonal time scale (2-5 month forecast period) for the global monsoon and for individual monsoon domains. We show that DePreSys3 is skilful at predicting the seasonal variability of summer monsoon precipitation over most of the monsoon domains. We assess sources of precipitation forecast skill decomposing precipitation into several dynamic and thermodynamic components. We show the skill for each of these precipitation components and we point out that deficiencies at predicting summer monsoon precipitation arises from difficulties at predicting anomalies in the atmospheric circulation patterns. We show that the use of a large ensemble improves skill for predicting monsoon precipitation.

Jon Robson (University of Reading)
Nick Dunstone (Met Office)
Andrew Turner (University of Reading)