Abstract 181

Abstract ID: 181

Use of S2S forecasts in the Climate Futures centre for applied research

Lead Author: Erik W. Kolstad
NORCE, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway

Keywords: Applications, Co-production, Communication

Abstract: Climate Futures is a collaboration to increase Norwegian society’s adaptation to climate risk: risk associated with changes in weather and climate. Our work has shed light on significant knowledge gaps in the private and public sectors, and we have initiated a number of projects that have the potential to increase our partners’ resilience. Our main focus is on climate predictions for the period from ten days to ten years into the future, and not least on integrating such predictions into decision-making processes. S2S predictions are a key component of our portfolio of solutions.

Our activities are organised within the following four areas of innovation: sustainable food production (agriculture and aquaculture), renewable energy, resilient societies, and smart shipping. For food producers, we are developing tools for the integration of climate and weather forecasting in agriculture and the farming industry. As part of this work, we have worked over time with focus groups for different crops to assess the needs and experiences in use of S2S forecasts. Maps made by the ECMWF were presented in our virtual meetings, and the groups discussed the use of the forecasts, including their own perception of the usefulness and skill of the forecasts. Initial results from the focus groups will be presented in my talk.

For aquaculture, we have carried out a study on predicting the evolution of sea surface temperatures in a Norwegian fjord several weeks into the future. By combining S2S data with a simple statistical persistence model, impressive skill was obtained. The forecast is now operationally available in the Clarify dashboard tool which is used by the food producers.

We have also used S2S forecasts with the largest insurance company in the Nordic countries. The questions they asked were: Can we use climate forecasts to price insurance in a better and more meaningful way than is the practice today? And can we improve damage prevention with regard to ongoing and expected climate change? I will present some preliminary results from this work.

Finally, we are excited that weekly summaries based on the ECMWF monthly forecasting system will soon be made available through MET Norway’s Yr system which consists of a freely available app and a free API for location forecasts. Leading up to the launch, the skill of the data has been thoroughly assessed, and a lot of work has been done on making the data seamlessly consistent with regular weather forecasts.

In summary, my talk will give concrete examples of the use of S2S forecasts in applied settings.

Lonneke van Bijsterveldt (MET Norway)
Etienne Dunn-Sigouin (NORCE, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Manuel Hempel (NORCE, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Iselin Medhaug (NORCE, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Øyvind Paasche (NORCE, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Anders Sivle (MET Norway)
Thordis Thorarinsdottir (Norwegian Computing Center)
C. Ole Wulff (NORCE, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)