Abstract 242

Abstract ID: 242

NOAA’s S2S Program Plan and Project Highlights

Lead Author: Dorothy Koch
NOAA OAR Weather Program Office, United States of America

Keywords: NOAA S2S Program Plan, Precipitation and Extreme Weather Prediction, Unified Forecast System, Seasonal Forecast System

Abstract: NOAA has recently received funding for an S2S Program and we are currently developing a plan that will include development of an operational seasonal forecast system with targeted forecast improvement metrics and research objectives. The forecast system includes extension of the Unified Forecast System’s (UFS) global medium-range and sub-seasonal forecast system to form the first Seasonal Forecast System (SFS) for operational implementation at the National Weather Service (NWS), as well as longer term research on the next generation of the SFS. The model developments will target key forecast goals including precipitation and seasonal snowpack prediction, which is particularly needed for the U.S. Western States to provide water managers necessary information needed for reservoir operations and planning. Observations, forecast product development and social sciences will also be incorporated into the plan.

In addition to sharing the S2S program plan, we will share the current status of NOAA’s medium-range and sub-seasonal forecast system based on the atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice-wave-aerosol coupled Unified Forecast System (UFS), which provides forecasts out to 4 weeks. We will also present highlights from current S2S research projects across NOAA. NOAA’s Weather Program Office S2S Program supports both external (i.e., academia and commercial) and internal (i.e., NOAA labs and National Weather Service) research. Particular focus has been to address improvements in three areas – data assimilation, numerical model processes and component interaction via the community-based UFS, as well as multi-model ensemble methods and postprocessing toward S2S scale prediction of extreme weather. In line with the precipitation forecast objectives, the program places a strong emphasis on projects designed to increase capabilities related to precipitation, its excess, shortfalls, duration, and precision of spatial and temporal placement on the sub-seasonal to seasonal scale.

As NOAA embarks on our S2S Program, we invite collaboration and coordination to address systemic challenges common across modeling and forecast centers.

Mark Olsen (NOAA OAR Weather Program Office)
Jessie Carman (NOAA OAR Weather Program Office)
Kevin Garrett (NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration)
Yan Xue (NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration)
Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction)